Welcome to ESPN's AFL Debate Club, the column in which our writers and contributors will take one prompt from the week and put their opinion on the record. The kicker? No opinion is immune from criticism!
This week, Rohan Connolly and Jarryd Barca look ahead to Friday night's blockbuster clash between Melbourne and Brisbane at the MCG and ask who a win will say more about as the run home to September heats up.
Does a win on Friday night say more about the Dees or Lions?
Rohan Connolly: The answer to this one is pretty clear, in my view. And it's that a win by the Lions will resonate far more than a win by the Demons. For obvious reasons.
I'm reminded of a real estate agent at an auction spruiking "location, location, location". That's what it's all about for Brisbane, and this location, the MCG, is a huge obstacle to the Lions' flag hopes which simply must be climbed.
Brisbane did indeed beat this same opponent at this same venue, in a final no less, last year. But that remains the Lions' only victory at the 'G in 14 attempts stretching all the way back to 2014.
There's also an argument they haven't necessarily proved themselves consistently against quality opposition this season. The Lions did beat fourth-placed Melbourne in Round 2 and ladder leader Collingwood in Round 4 - both with a Gabba advantage. But they lost to Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs away.
Coach Chris Fagan will argue that his team doesn't have issues on the road per se, and the figures back that up. The Lions have won 27 and lost 26 games away from the Gabba since their resurgence in 2019. Indeed, their recent record at Marvel Stadium is terrific, Brisbane having seven of its past eight games there.
But doesn't that merely lend weight to the idea the MCG is a major issue? How can the Lions' record at either ground be so dramatically different when they're separated only by the width of the Melbourne CBD?
Even if it is able to finish top two and earn two home finals en route to the big one, Brisbane won't be winning a premiership unless it can conquer its MCG demons (pardon the pun). And a win on Friday night would be a critical statement of intent on that score.
Jarryd Barca: There is a lot riding on this game for both teams, and a win, yes, will say a lot about both teams. And Rohan's right, the Lions have their infamous MCG record to quash. But their sole win at the ground out of their most recent 14 attempts came against these Demons, who will be largely fielding the same squad that went down in last year's semifinal, albeit a more makeshift version.
But other than the whole 'Lions can't win at the MCG' thing -- an obvious Achilles' heel that I agree they must overcome before taking them seriously as a genuine premiership contender -- would we really be surprised if they beat Melbourne this week, given the form of both teams?
The stakes, right now, are higher for the Demons. They're two games behind the third-placed Lions, only four points ahead of the top four chasing pack which consists of Essendon, St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs, and to an extent, Geelong, and frankly, they're vulnerable despite an uninspiring win against the undermanned Saints in Round 17.
The jury is still out on Simon Goodwin's team who have failed to score more than 80 points in a game since Round 9. Since then, the Dees have averaged a measly 66 points, compared to the Lions who score more than any other team in the competition at 99 points.
The Lions have been defensively staunch in recent weeks, too, holding the Eagles to 35 points last week, the Tigers to 53 in Round 16, and the Saints to 56 in a 28-point win at Marvel Stadium.
Chris Fagan also has his side ranked 1st in the competition for centre clearances and 4th for contested marks (the Dees 11th and 15th in those categories respectively), while they also take more marks inside 50 than any other side.
The Demons still have lots to prove. A low-scoring, undermanned defensive juggernaut, overcoming an in-form, high-scoring Brisbane team currently brimming with confidence? It would be a monumental answer to the critics' questions, and a reminder that they're still a key player in this season not to be scoffed at.