BRISBANE -- A first Grand Final appearance in 19 years was the prize for Brisbane after surviving an almighty early scare against Carlton, then running over the top in a see-sawing preliminary final at the Gabba.
The Blues jumped their highly fancied opponent with a five goal to one first quarter, but Chris Fagan's side began reeling them in after the first break, eventually hitting the front and never looking back. A spirited, albeit too late, Blues fightback reduced the final margin to 16 points at full-time.
Brisbane will now face Collingwood in next weekend's AFL Grand Final, a repeat of the 2002 and 2003 deciders.
Here's how the game played out, and a few things we learned:
Carlton's stunning first quarter had a Blues-Magpies Grand Final looking highly likely
It had been 14 years since the Blues last kicked five goals in the opening quarter of a final. In fact, they'd only managed the feat four times in September over the past 35 years!
To say the first 30 minutes of the second preliminary final left everyone in attendance and watching around the country stunned might be the understatement of the season. This had gone horribly wrong for Lions fans, while the traveling Blues contingent couldn't quite believe what they were witnessing.
Matthew Cottrell got the party started inside two and a half minutes, taking a handball receive at the top of the 50m arc and turning on the jets to drive the first goal of the game through from the top of the goal square. A Harry McKay free kick and confident snap from 40m out doubled the advantage, and when Jack Martin added a third before the game clock had reached 10 minutes, there was a feeling Brisbane's preliminary final ghosts were yet again set to haunt them.
At that point, the inside 50 count was a staggering 11-2. It was one-way traffic and the Lions were totally shell-shocked, out of shape and disorganised.
Moments later, Sam Docherty saluted from his set shot, before the Blues again broke clear from the centre bounce and found Charlie Curnow 30m out directly in front. Quarter time could not have come quicker for the home side.
A second quarter response from Brisbane resembled that of a premier
Chris Fagan's quarter-time address was short and sharp. His troops had returned to their positions on the field by the time Carlton's huddle had broken, but his messaging, and call for increased effort, had an immediate impact when play resumed.
The Lions ratcheted up the pressure and began forcing the Blues into mistakes. In the blink of an eye the game was being played on their terms, something which had been widely expected for a team boasting an unbeaten record at their home ground in 2023.
"It felt like we were just half a step off on everything. Our pressure was a bit off, we were a little bit fumbly and they were outnumbering us at a lot of contests," Brisbane skipper Lachie Neale told ESPN. "We knew that if we just got our reaction time going a bit better and sharpen up we'd be alright. It wasn't ideal. A little bit stressful."
Early goals to Oscar McInerney and Joe Daniher breathed life back into the crowd, and while the Blues responded through skipper Patrick Cripps, a run of three majors in quick succession had them in front by the time the half-time siren blew. Just like that, all of Carlton's early work undone, and the Lions once again in the box seat.
By half-time, Brisbane hadn't just evened up many of the key metrics on the stat sheet, they'd begun dominating them. They had won more disposals (186-171), more clearances (23-16), more contested possessions (78-73) and the previously lopsided inside 50 count had returned to parity.
It took the Lions 34 seconds to strike in the second half. McInerney won a free kick out of the centre and was gifted a 50m penalty after Cripps kicked the ball away. Another goal to Charlie Cameron two minutes later had the Blues reeling, and the full-time result began feeling a little inevitable.
From that moment on, the Lions had full control of the contest. Not even a spirited fight back from the Blues in the final 12 minutes -- which yielded two quick goals and another two chances -- would have caused much concern. Brisbane had flexed its muscle and showed why they might just be the best team in the competition.
Brisbane prayed on Carlton's high turnover game
Perhaps the most pressing question heading into this final was whether or not Carlton could take care of the football and not offer the Lions opportunities to punish them on turnover.
The Blues were let off the hook in their semifinal win over Melbourne, with the wasteful Demons unable to generate meaningful scoreboard impact off the back of Carlton's 92 turnovers. But Brisbane was always going to pose a different challenge.
Fagan's squad entered the contest as the best in the competition at scoring from opposition turnover, averaging 54.8 points from this source per game. Brisbane's slick, precise and direct ball movement was what did the damage in Round 8 when these sides last met, and this occasion was no different -- certainly after quarter-time.
While Carlton didn't turn the ball over as much as in their previous outing, 74 times was still above this year's AFL average, and the Lions punished them for it. When they won it back in the defensive half, they'd play the patience game, looking to advance the ball slowly up the wing or via the boundary. But when it was won in the front half, they attacked directly through the corridor with speed. It was calculated and measured.
Champion Data's numbers suggest the Lions are the best offensive team in the league. This season, they ranked second for points scored, second for points per inside 50 entry, and were one of only two sides to rank top five in both scoring sources (turnover and clearance).
The future is incredibly bright for Sam Walsh
If finals make or break reputations, Sam Walsh's must now be at an all-time high. And remember, this is a player who tallied 30 Brownlow Medal votes just two years ago, a number which would win you the award in just about any other season!
Walsh delivered epic finals performances against both the Swans and Demons which resulted in 18 of a possible 20 coaches votes. On Saturday evening against the Lions, he was once again Carlton's best player.
The 23-year-old won a game-high 33 disposals -- nine more than the next most on the ground -- and 14 contested possessions, yet again leaving nothing in the tank and demonstrating the sort of two-way running which has him regarded as one of the hardest workers in the sport. Walsh also laid six tackles, had seven score involvements and over 600 metres gained.
Unfortunately for Blues fans, he needed help in the midfield. Cripps kicked two goals but was well held by Josh Dunkley, who restricted last year's Brownlow medallist to just 13 disposals. Adam Cerra was also well down on his best.
The way Walsh has finished the season is especially impressive when you consider the setbacks he's been forced to overcome. His preseason was severely compromised after undergoing a micro-discectomy procedure to have a bulging disc portion in his back removed. He then suffered a hamstring injury in the back half of the season.
If he gets a clear run in 2024, look out.