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          The Six Points: Steele Sidebottom needs to consider retirement; cut Ken Hinkley some slack

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          • Jake Michaels, Senior WriterMay 7, 2024, 10:00 PM
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer. He has been with ESPN since 2013, covering everything from AFL to Formula One, basketball to boxing, and tennis, both in Australia and around the world.
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          Each week of the 2024 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.

          This week's Six Points features the decline of Steele Sidebottom, the most improved players of the year, why we should praise Ken Hinkley, and the very strange -- and worrying -- Rory Laird trend.

          1. He'll forever be a Collingwood great, but it's time Steele Sidebottom hung up the boots

          The decline of Collingwood icon Steele Sidebottom has been well documented this year. Through seven games, the two-time premiership player has been near non-existent, averaging career-lows in disposals, contested possessions, clearances, marks, and tackles. He's also yet to kick a goal.

          But as a 33-year-old who has played over 300 games for the club, the stark drop off should hardly come as a surprise. There's also no shame in the end arriving far quicker than anyone anticipated.

          It's obvious this season will be Sidebottom's last, and I think it's time he made that public.

          As one of the club's best and most loved players of the modern era, Sidebottom deserves to dictate when he bows out. The problem is that if he holds off on a retirement announcement for too long, he runs the risk of being pushed out of the side -- one which might well be battling for a place in the top eight -- and throwing away a much deserved farewell game. Think such a scenario is hyperbole? Think again. This season, Sidebottom ranks 297th out of 317 qualifying players when it comes to Champion Data's 100x ratings, which compares player performance by position, per 100 minutes of play. In other words, there have been just 20 players in the entire league who have been poorer than Sidebottom this year.

          Far too many greats of the modern era have missed out on that farewell game they deserve. Think Lance Franklin last year, or even Rory Sloane this year -- not exactly apples for apples, sure, but playing on a little too long ultimately took away the moment of donning the guernsey, running out with teammates, and feeling the love from fans for one last time.

          It would be a shame for Sidebottom to miss out on that. So, Steele, make the call now and don't regret it later.

          2. The numbers say the most improved player of 2024 is ... Isaac Heeney

          Sydney star and Brownlow Medal favourite Isaac Heeney has become a staple of this column in 2024. Not only has he dominated the first two months of the season, but according to Champion Data, he's also the most improved player in the competition.

          Heeney was pretty handy last year -- which highlights just how well he's going now -- and ranked as the 48th-best player in the league, according to 100x ratings.

          READ: Has Isaac Heeney polled Brownlow votes in every game this year?

          This season, he's rocketed to first, recording 10.34 Rating Points more than expected per 100 minutes of play. That's streets ahead of the pack, with the next biggest outperformer thus far being Bulldogs skipper Marcus Bontempelli, who records +7.37 more Rating Points than expected, per 100 minutes.

          This year's next most improved player is Matt Rowell. Last season, Champion Data had the contested beast ranked 72nd in the league, this year he's jumped to No. 5 overall. Rounding out the podium is Rowell's former teammate Izak Rankine, who has taken his game to a new level since joining the Crows. The 24-year-old was the 57th best player of 2023 -- again, according to 100x ratings -- and this year he sits ninth.

          3. We should be admiring Ken Hinkley's refreshing honesty

          It's easy to crush Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley for opting to play skipper Connor Rozee in last Thursday night's Showdown.

          Rozee strained his hamstring in Round 7's win over St Kilda, but was never ruled out of the following game against cross-town rival Adelaide and would ultimately suit up for the contest. Unfortunately, he aggravated the injury and is now expected to miss several weeks.

          "There's always a risk with any injury to a hamstring of any type," said Hinkley ahead of the Showdown. "So for those people who are sitting there with the doomsday saying 'you're taking a big risk', we're taking a normal risk with an injury like this."

          Hinkley was right. He and the club took a gamble that didn't pay off. It happens, and now Port Adelaide has been left to deal with the consequences. But it would be totally naive to pretend these type of roll-the-dice decisions aren't made day in, day out at club level. You can't only have a problem with it when it doesn't pan out.

          Cut Hinkley some slack for admitting and owning the mistake and let's all move on.

          4. What's going on with Rory Laird in 2024?

          Regular readers will know how I feel about Rory Laird. For those that don't, let me fill you in. Laird has been one of the most underrated and unappreciated stars -- see, it even sounds weird calling him that -- in our game over the last half a dozen seasons. He was a dual All-Australian halfback and has now seamlessly transitioned into one of the game's premier inside midfielders.

          In fact, during the three-year span between 2021 and 2023, Laird ranked second for disposals, second for contested possessions, third for centre bounce clearances, second for tackles, and fourth for groundball gets. Not at the Crows, but in the entire league!

          However, this year has been a different story. The 30-year-old's numbers are down on what we had become accustomed to seeing, and I think I know the reason why: he's playing far fewer minutes of game time each week.

          Through the first two months of the season, Laird's averaging just 91:03 minutes per game, which is the second-fewest of any non-sub at the Crows. Not once has he reached 80% game time, and already on five occasions he's been held below 75%.

          For context, over the three previous years, Laird was playing 99 minutes per game. He also hit the 80% of minutes mark 30 times in that span. Yeah, it's a substantial drop.

          What we don't know is whether this is due to a lack of fitness, structural changes, or whether Matthew Nicks and his coaching staff just want to run different players through the middle of the ground. But keep a close eye on this situation, because I'm certain Laird's still got plenty of A-grade footy ahead of him...

          5. The match-ups that produce the closest games

          Last week on Red Time, Jarryd Barca and I discussed the best rivalries of the modern era. Something we took into account when making our nominations was just how tight two sides have played each other in recent times. That idea opened up a new path to explore, and what better way to present it than in Six Points!?

          Here are the teams that have played each other the tightest over the last 10 years, first by average winning margin, and then by the most single-digit margin results:

          Not many would label North Melbourne and Sydney a modern day rivalry, but it's been these two sides playing -- on average -- the closest games. That's even more surprising given the Kangaroos' struggles in recent years. The Roos and Swans have played each other 13 times since the beginning of 2015, five of those games have been decided by nine or fewer points, and nine of them by a 1-16-point margin.

          But the most nail-biting games have been played between Sydney and Essendon -- who can forget, "Rohan, Rohan. Mark, mark"!? -- and Sydney and Hawthorn. Both match-ups have given us seven games in the last 10 years decided by nine points or fewer. Funnily enough, 38 points is the closest any Swans-Hawks game has finished since the beginning of 2021!

          6. What I loved and hated from Gold Coast's social media team

          Call me a whinger, but I really didn't like seeing this from Gold Coast's social media team during Sunday evening's poor showing against Brisbane.

          Is it just me, or should coaching be left to the coaches?

          With that said, the Suns' social media crew does deserve credit for its touching comments in regards to the plethora of injuries the Lions suffered during the Q-Clash.

          More of this, please.