FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – In one of the more exciting regular-season games of 2015, the visiting New England Patriots lost to the Denver Broncos in overtime, 30-24, on Nov. 29. The teams once again meet up in Denver, this time in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET).
For the Patriots to win, here are five things that need to change from that first meeting (and why they can change):
Better run defense: The Broncos rushed for 179 yards on 32 carries (an average of 5.6 per carry) and had three touchdowns on the ground. Three runs in particular reflected the Patriots’ struggles – C.J. Anderson’s 48-yard touchdown in overtime, Ronnie Hillman’s 19-yard touchdown late in the second quarter and a 15-yard run by Hillman in the third quarter. Tackling in the secondary was an issue at times, with safety Duron Harmon taking a few poor angles.
Why it can change: The Patriots didn’t have linebacker Jamie Collins in that game (illness), while fellow starting linebacker Dont’a Hightower left in the second quarter with a knee injury. When Hightower was in the game, the Broncos had 15 carries for 43 yards. Once he left with injury, they had 17 carries for 136 yards and the three touchdowns.
Improvement with third-down offense: The Patriots finished 2-of-13 on third down and 0-for-1 on fourth down. That helps explain why the Broncos held a time-of-possession edge of 36:31 to 25:57. Of the Patriots' third-down snaps, almost half were low-percentage situations, with 10, 9, 10, 20, 15 and 10 yards needed to gain the first down. So better play on early downs ties into this as well.
Why it can change: Receiver Julian Edelman didn’t play in the Nov. 29 game; he was sidelined by a broken bone in his left foot. He’s back, and Saturday’s win in the divisional round against the Chiefs highlighted the difference he makes for the Patriots on third down, as his first reception was an 11-yarder on third-and-10 on the opening drive. Also, No. 3 receiver Danny Amendola (knee) didn’t play in the Nov. 29 meeting.
Tighten things up on punt returns: The Patriots were in great position to put the Broncos away early in the fourth quarter, leading 21-7 and forcing a three-and-out at the Denver 20-yard line to set themselves up with good field position. But rookie Chris Harper muffed a punt. The Broncos recovered and quickly turned it into a touchdown, and it was a game again.
Why it can change: With Edelman and Amendola active, one of them will handle punt returns, adding more experience in the role.
Better play from Kline and the offensive line: When a team can quickly get to the quarterback rushing just three defenders, as the Broncos did late in the first quarter (Derek Wolfe, 1:51 remaining), that’s a prescription for disaster for the offense. Guard Josh Kline had some notable struggles in the first meeting, and part of that was handling twists with right tackle Marcus Cannon (second quarter, 14:19 remaining).
Why it can change: Kline was battling through a shoulder injury at the time, which might have affected his performance. Meanwhile, Cannon is coming off arguably his best game of the season against the Chiefs. Also, with Edelman and Amendola available, Brady should be able to get rid of the ball quicker, thus helping the protection.
Getting more out of the running game: The Patriots rushed 16 times for 39 yards (2.4 avg.), as they were turned mostly one-dimensional. Their best work came late in the second quarter (e.g., LeGarrette Blount's 9-yard run), but it wasn't consistent enough to give them confidence to stick with it.
Why it can change: Top blocking tight end Michael Williams wasn’t active for the game, so perhaps he makes a difference. Also, with limited personnel at running back, coordinator Josh McDaniels could get creative to manufacture some yardage in the running game by integrating receivers into the mix on end-around plays or jet sweeps.