Last week, the Houston Texans nearly pulled off the largest upset of the NFL season, blowing a lead in the final minute as 17-point underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys. This week, the Texans are double-digit home underdogs against the Chiefs. Over the last two seasons, double-digit home underdogs are 8-10 outright, up over 31 units on the moneyline. Two of the three previous double-digit home underdogs this season already won outright.
The Baltimore Ravens are likely without Lamar Jackson again, which puts them in a role they've had a ton of success in. The Ravens are 16-2-1 ATS as an underdog since 2018, the year they drafted Jackson. It's not all Lamar though - the Ravens are 6-1 ATS as an underdog without Jackson in that span, including an outright win last week in Pittsburgh.
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are underdogs again. Brady had not been underdogs in back-to-back weeks since 2014. The Buccaneers are 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games, the worst mark in the NFL in that span. They are home underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 10-1 ATS in that same span, and an NFL-best 10-3 ATS on the season.
If the Bengals aren't the hottest team in the NFL, perhaps that honor belongs to the Detroit Lions. The Lions have covered six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. If the Lions can cover against the New York Jets on Sunday, it would be their longest single-season cover streak in the Super Bowl era.
The Carolina Panthers have also begun to turn their season around under Steve Wilks. The Panthers hope to buck a couple historic trends this week. Carolina has lost eight straight games outright as a favorite, one shy of the longest streak in the Super Bowl era. The Panthers are also 0-7 ATS all-time against the Steelers.
Season Trends
Underdogs: 8-5 ATS last week (107-90-6 ATS this season)
Road teams: 7-6 ATS last week (99-103-6 ATS this season)
Overs: 7-6 last week (92-114-2 this season)
Best ATS team: Cincinnati (10-3)
Worst ATS team: Tampa Bay (3-9-1)
Best over teams: Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia (9-4) Best under team: Denver (11-2)
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks, Thursday at 8:15 ET
Seattle is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog under Pete Carroll, including 15-4 ATS since 2011.
Seattle is 48-29-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll including 19-10-1 ATS since 2018.
Seattle is 17-8 ATS against San Francisco under Pete Carroll (6-5 ATS vs Kyle Shanahan).
San Francisco has covered four straight games.
San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in division games this season (five straight covers dating back to last season).
Division game unders are 39-26-1 this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4), Saturday at 1 ET
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games as a favorite, including 3-0 ATS in its last three games as a home favorite.
Since 2020, overs are 16-4 following a Minnesota loss. They are also 6-0 in that span when Minnesota has fewer than six days rest.
Indianapolis is 13-3-1 ATS after a bye since 2005.
Minnesota has covered seven straight non-conference games (4-0 ATS this season).
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5), Saturday at 4:30 ET
Since 2018, Baltimore is 16-2-1 ATS as an underdogs (11-8 SU). That includes 6-1 ATS in games that Lamar Jackson does not start (3-4 SU).
Since 2019, Baltimore is 15-4-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS against Baltimore under Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland is 4-12 ATS in divison games under Kevin Stefanski.
Cleveland is 9-17 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski.
Baltimore unders are 8-2 in its past 10 games. Cleveland has gone under in three straight.
Division game unders are 39-26-1 this season.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5), Saturday at 8:15 ET
Since 2017, Miami is 0-7 outright and ATS in games 40 degrees and below (average margin: -20.9 PPG).
Miami is 0-4 ATS after an outright loss this season.
Buffalo unders are 10-3 this season (three straight unders). All four Buffalo division games have gone under.
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its past five games against teams with winning records.
Miami is 0-3 ATS in its past three road games and 0-3 ATS in its past three games as an underdog.
Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0-1 ATS as an underdog of at least six points.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (PK), Sunday at 1 ET
New York is 5-0 ATS after a loss this season.
New York is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.
Detroit has covered six straight games, the longest active streak in the league, and Detroit's longest cover streak since 2010-11 when it covered seven straight games. It is tied for Detroit's longest single-season cover streak in the Super Bowl era.
Detroit is 5-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 this season with four straight covers.
Detroit is 20-10 ATS under Dan Campbell (second-best since start of last season).
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 ET
Seven straight Chicago games have gone over the total. Chicago is also 0-4 ATS in its past four games. Philadelphia is 3-0 ATS in its past three games.
Chicago is 0-8 ATS after a bye since 2014.
Chicago overs are 8-1 after a loss this season with six straight overs. Chicago is also 4-0 ATS after its past four losses.
Philadelphia has won and covered four straight meetings.
Justin Fields is 2-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Chicago has not been at least an eight-point home underdog since 2014 vs Detroit (+9).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4), Sunday at 1 ET
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games, including 0-4 ATS in its past four games as an underdog and 0-3 ATS in its past three road games.
All three meetings have gone over the total since the start of last season, when Arthur Smith was hired in Atlanta.
New Orleans has covered three straight games as a home favorite.
Division game unders are 39-26-1 this season.
Pittsbugh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Carolina has lost eight straight games outright as a favorite, one shy of the longest streak in the Super Bowl era (1979-81 Seattle).
Carolina has covered four straight games.
Both Pittsburgh and Carolina have covered four straight against teams with losing records.
Since 2018, Pittsburgh is 23-11-2 ATS as an underdog.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 ET
Jacksonville is 3-0 outright as a home underdog this season. Dallas is 6-1 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season (1-1 ATS this season).
Dallas is 11-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season (3-2 ATS this season).
Dallas is 15-6 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season (5-3 ATS this season).
Jacksonville is 0-10 ATS in its past 10 games against NFC teams and 2-18 ATS in its past 20 games against NFC teams. The 10-game ATS losing streak is the longest against NFC teams by any team since the 1970 merger.
Three straight Jacksonville games have gone over the total. Three straight Dallas games have also gone over the total.
Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 ET
Double-digit home underdogs are 8-10 outright over the past two seasons (+31.3 units) and 13-5 ATS. They are 2-1 outright and 3-0 ATS this season (outright wins by New York Jets over Buffalo and Carolina over Tampa Bay). Home underdogs of 13 points are 5-4 outright in that span (+25.25 units) and 8-1 ATS. Since Week 17 of last season, double-digit home underdogs are 7-0 ATS.
This is the second time in the last 50 years that Kansas City is a 14-point road favorite (-14 at Oakland in 2018; won by 7).
Kansas City is 1-8 ATS in conference games this season, the worst mark by any team.
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its past three road games.
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its past five games. It is also 1-4 ATS in its past five home games. However, it covered last week in both roles.
This will be Houston's 15th game as a double-digit underdog since the start of last season, six more than any other team in that span. Houston is 4-1 ATS in its past five games as a double-digit underdog.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-3), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Denver is 0-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
Denver unders are 11-2 this season, the best mark in the league. Arizona has gone over the total in six of its past seven games.
Kliff Kingsbury is 16-5-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 9-1 ATS since the start of last season. He is 3-0 outright as a road underdog in Colt McCoy starts. McCoy is 4-0 outright in his last four road starts, all as an underdog.
Each of the past eight meetings went over the total.
New England Patriots (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:05 ET
New England has covered four straight games as a favorite. Las Vegas has covered three straight games as an underdog.
New England has won six straight meetings (5-1 ATS).
New England is 4-1 ATS in its past five road games.
Five of New England's past six games went under the total.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3), Sunday at 4:25 ET
Los Angeles is 0-3 ATS in its past three games as a home favorite. It is 13-24-1 ATS as a home favorite since moving to Los Angeles in 2017.
Tennessee is 0-3 ATS in its past three games.
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its past six road games.
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its past five games as an underdog.
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season (3-0 ATS in past three).
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 4:25 ET
Cincinnati is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games, the best mark in the league in that span. Cincinnati has covered five straight games. One more cover would be Cincinnati's longest cover streak since 1993 (6).
Tampa Bay is 1-9-1 ATS in its past 11 games, the worst mark in the league in that span.
Tom Brady is 11-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog (9-3 outright).
Tom Brady has not been an underdog in back-to-back regular-season weeks since 2014.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET
Washington is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight games. Nine of Washington's past 11 games went under the total.
New York is 4-1 ATS on the road this season. Daniel Jones is 16-7 ATS in his career on the road.
Washington is 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
New York is 4-0 ATS after a loss this season.
Washington is 13-28-2 ATS in prime-time games over the past 15 seasons (2-0 ATS this season).
Division game unders are 39-26-1 this season.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7), Monday at 8:15 ET
Green Bay has covered eight straight meetings including the playoffs. Matt LaFleur is 2-0 ATS against Sean McVay.
Four straight Green Bay games have gone over the total.
Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite (covered most recent game in Week 13 vs Chicago). It is 0-4 ATS in its past four games as a home favorite.