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          NFL Week 17 games lines: Fresh off MNF upset, 49ers biggest favorite of the week

          The San Francisco 49ers were 5.5-point favorites against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 16. Brock Purdy threw four interceptions as the Ravens defeated the 49ers 33-19. AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)
          • ESPN Betting
          Dec 31, 2023, 12:18 PM

          Week 17 of the NFL season features 14 games on Sunday -- New Year's Eve -- with an additional game scheduled on Thursday and Saturday nights. The Thursday game will have the Cleveland Browns attempting to become the AFC's third 11-win team as they take on the visiting New York Jets. On Saturday, the Dallas Cowboys will be at home and looking to halt their losing skid at 2 as they face the NFC North champion Detroit Lions. Sunday's prime-time game will have the Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers as both teams fight for their playoff lives in a quest for a Wild Card.

          Projections by ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Odds by ESPN BET.

          New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -14
          Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: New England Patriots (+700) ; Buffalo Bills (-1000)
          Total: 40.5; Opened: 40.5
          FPI favorite: Bills by 14.9 (87% to win outright)

          Line Movement Alert: Opened Bills -11.5

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Bills are 0-7 ATS in their past seven games as a double-digit favorite including the playoffs (0-3 ATS this season).

          • The Patriots are 5-10 ATS this season, tied with the Falcons for the second-worst record in the NFL, but have covered three straight games.

          • Bills games are 10-5 to the under this season, tied for the second-highest under percentage in the NFL. Six straight Bills home games have gone under the total.

          Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears -3
          Soldier Field, Chicago
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (+125) ; Chicago Bears (-145)
          Total: 38.5; Opened: 37.5
          FPI favorite: Falcons by 0.4 (51.2% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Falcons have had 11 of 15 games in December or later go under the total under Arthur Smith (past 3 seasons).

          • The Bears are 18-29-2 ATS over the past three seasons, worst in the NFL in that span. They are 12-18-2 ATS under Matt Eberflus.

          • Justin Fields has only been favored by more than three points once in his career (last week, 5.5 vs Cardinals).

          Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts -4
          Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+170) ; Indianapolis Colts (-200)
          Total: 42.5; Opened: 44.5
          FPI favorite: Colts by 3.5 (60.5% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • Colts games are 10-5 to the over this season, tied for the highest over percentage in the NFL this season. Six of their seven home games have gone over the total this season.

          • The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in seven games since hiring interim coach Antonio Pierce, and are 4-1 ATS in their past five as an underdog.

          • The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games when the line is between +3 and -3.

          Los Angeles Rams -6 @ New York Giants
          MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Los Angeles Rams (-270) ; New York Giants (+220)
          Total: 43.5; Opened: 41.5
          FPI favorite: Rams by 12.2 (82.3% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Rams have covered five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

          • The Giants have covered nine of the past 11 meetings.

          • Giants games are 10-5 to the under this season, tied for the second-highest under percentage in the NFL. Nine of their last 13 games have gone under, including five of six at home.

          Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles -12.5
          Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+500) ; Philadelphia Eagles (-700)
          Total: 48.5; Opened: 47.5
          FPI favorite: Eagles by 11.5 (80.9% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • Kyler Murray is 15-6-1 ATS in his career as a road underdog (12-10 outright).

          • The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their past four games as double-digit favorites, and have failed to cover four straight games overall.

          • Six of seven Eagles home games have gone over the total this season.

          New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
          Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: New Orleans Saints (+120) ; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-140)
          Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5
          FPI favorite: Saints by 0.7 (52.1% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Saints are 11-20-1 ATS under Dennis Allen, the worst record in the NFL over the past two seasons. They are 4-10-1 ATS this season, also the worst in the NFL. Allen is 25-42-1 ATS in his career, the worst mark of any coach with at least 35 games in the Super Bowl era.

          • The Buccaneers are 10-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL.

          • The Buccaneers are 1-6 outright against teams currently with winning records (4-3 ATS), winning last week vs Jaguars.

          San Francisco 49ers -14 @ Washington Commanders
          FedExField, Landover, Maryland
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: San Francisco 49ers (-1000) ; Washington Commanders (+700)
          Total: 49.5; Opened: 48.5
          FPI favorite: 49ers by 10.1 (77.7% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • This is Brock Purdy's 21st career regular-season start. He has never been an underdog. That extends the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. Purdy is 12-7-1 ATS in his career as a starter.

          • The 49ers are 5-1 ATS on short rest since the start of last season.

          • The Commanders are 1-4 ATS in their past five games (covering last week), and 1-5 ATS at home this season.

          Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars -4
          TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Carolina Panthers (+175) ; Jacksonville Jaguars (-210)
          Total: 36.5; Opened: 37.5
          FPI favorite: Jaguars by 5.3 (65.7% to win outright)

          Line Movement Alert: Opened Jaguars -6

          Betting Nuggets

          • Panthers games are 10-5 to the under this season, tied for the second-highest under percentage in the NFL.

          • The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

          • The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their past four games.

          Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens -3.5
          M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Miami Dolphins (+150) ; Baltimore Ravens (-175)
          Total: 46.5; Opened: 46.5
          FPI favorite: Ravens by 2 (55.9% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Dolphins and Ravens are both 10-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL with two other teams.

          • The Ravens have covered eight of the past 10 meetings.

          • The Dolphins have failed to cover three straight as an underdog and three straight as a road underdog as well.

          Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans -4
          NRG Stadium, Houston
          Sunday 1 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Tennessee Titans (+170) ; Houston Texans (-200)
          Total: 43.5; Opened: 42.5
          FPI favorite: Texans by 2.7 (58.1% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their past six games as underdogs, and 1-5 ATS in their past six road games.

          • The Texans have covered 18 of the past 25 meetings.

          • Four of the past six Texans games have gone under the total, and six of the Texans' seven games against teams with losing records have gone under the total.

          Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks -4.5
          Lumen Field, Seattle
          Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (+180) ; Seattle Seahawks (-215)
          Total: 40.5; Opened: 40.5
          FPI favorite: Seahawks by 5.9 (67.2% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Seahawks have covered four straight games, one behind the Rams for the longest active cover streak in the NFL.

          • Steelers games are 10-5 to the under this season, tied for the second-highest under percentage in the NFL. Five of the six Steelers road games this season have gone under the total.

          • The Steelers are 1-3 ATS in their past four games and 1-3 ATS in their past four games as an underdog, but covered in the last game (also as an underdog).

          Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos -3.5
          Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
          Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Los Angeles Chargers (+155) ; Denver Broncos (-185)
          Total: 36.5; Opened: 38.5
          FPI favorite: Broncos by 1.1 (53.3% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Chargers are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this season (covering vs Bills last week). The Chargers are 0-6 outright and 1-5 ATS against teams currently with winning records.

          • The Broncos are 2-11-1 ATS as favorites when starting Russell Wilson (6-8 outright). Overall, the Broncos are 3-11-1 ATS as favorites over the past two seasons.

          • All four Broncos divisional games this season have gone under the total.

          Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
          GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
          Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (+240) ; Kansas City Chiefs (-290)
          Total: 43.5; Opened: 45.5
          FPI favorite: Chiefs by 8.1 (72.9% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • All five Chiefs games against teams with winning records have gone under the total this season.

          • The Chiefs are 10-18 ATS in their past 28 games when laying at least a touchdown.

          • The Bengals have covered four of the past five meetings.

          Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings -1
          U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
          Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET

          Money Line: Green Bay Packers (+100) ; Minnesota Vikings (-120)
          Total: 43.5; Opened: 45.5
          FPI favorite: Packers by 0.4 (51.2% to win outright)

          Betting Nuggets

          • The Vikings have failed to cover four straight games as a home favorite.

          • The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games.

          • Prime-time unders are 33-17 this season and 156-102-4 (.605) over the past five seasons.