The opening weekend wasn't as decimating to brackets as we've seen in past years. Sure we lost Auburn, Kentucky, Kansas and Baylor, but all the 1- and 2-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 and we're poised for an epic few days of regional action this weekend.
In the meantime, why not try for another opportunity at perfection!
ESPN's Tournament Challenge Second Chance brackets are live for both the men's and women's contests, and this time perfection is actually attainable.
How second chance works
We're down to the Sweet 16. It's easier than filling out your complete bracket, with only 15 picks to make -- the same as one region in a full bracket.
Former Villanova coach Jay Wright has said the NCAA tournament is a series of three weekends, each with a two-game tournament. It helps a team prepare better for what's in front of it. A No. 1 seed doesn't need to focus on the No. 2 seed in its region initially, as they won't face off unless six different outcomes go a certain way. Three sites, three weekends; simply play the teams in front of you.
For the rest of us, filling out our brackets in March is a massive puzzle to be solved, with historical data and trends leading us a certain direction. The biggest dilemma we have is being forced to pick all three weekends at once, before the tournament even starts! That's why many brackets are busted in the opening weekend. So here's your shot at redemption.
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (read: 9.2 quintillion) different combinations for a 64-team bracket. Every human on Earth would have to fill out over a billion brackets each to cover all of those combinations. Now that we're down to a 16-team bracket? That number is a much more manageable 32,768. Give a different Second Chance bracket to every fan entering a sold-out Fenway Park for a Red Sox game, and you're guaranteed to find a perfect combination.
A few things to keep in mind
Now, just because it's possible to pick a perfect bracket doesn't mean it's easy. In a relatively tame first weekend, no men's brackets were perfect after 29 games. And despite the women's side only having four upsets by seed through 40 games entering Monday, only 14 brackets made it that far unscathed.
There are no more "gimme" games. Fourteen of the final 16 men's teams were ranked in the most recent AP Top 25 poll, and 6-seed Clemson reached the top 15 earlier this season. Even "Cinderella" NC State just beat Duke and UNC to win the ACC tournament and get here in the first place. Only one of the eight Sweet 16 games currently has a spread of 7 or more points at ESPN BET (UConn is a 10.5-point favorite over San Diego State).
Don't expect favorites to keep winning at this rate. Betting favorites went 15-1 in the round of 32, tied for the second-best record since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985. In 2019, betting favorites went 16-0. However, the 2019 Final Four featured a 1-, 2-, 3- and 5-seed.
It's also just the fifth time since seeding began in 1979 that every No. 1 seed and No. 2 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16. It also happened in 2019, 2009, 1995, and 1989. But in each of those years, we saw either one or two regions won by a 3-seed or lower (10 of 16 regions were won by a 1- or 2-seed).
So will it be Creighton, Duke, Gonzaga, Alabama or Illinois making a run? That's up for you to decide. Just know that it's unlikely we see the top seeds keep up this incredible pace.
Lastly, if you're trying to win a group contest, the same mindset from your regular bracket applies here. UConn was a heavy favorite in the Tournament Challenge, picked to win in a whopping 25% of brackets. The same effect is happening in the Second Chance game, with 29% of brackets picking UConn to win it all. After Houston struggled to hold off a pesky Texas A&M team Sunday night, the Cougars have dropped from 14% in the regular game (second-most popular pick) to picked as champs in only 10% in the Second Chance game, fourth most behind the other No. 1 seeds in Purdue (12%) and North Carolina (11%).
If you think you can find an edge that other people aren't factoring in, don't be afraid to stray from the crowd! Good luck with your picks, and maybe we'll see a perfect bracket after all.