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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Bryce Miller faces the struggling White Sox. Steph Chambers/Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jun 18, 2023, 03:45 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Sunday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • Good news for west coasters as Sunday's action begins at a more reasonable 1:05 PM ET for those in leagues where pickups are cut off once the first game begins. The Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs get things started as they wrap up their weekend set in Wrigley Filed. For the second straight week, the Sunday night affair features the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, this time in Fenway Park.

          • Sunday is not ideal for streaming pitchers, but there are a few options beginning with Bryce Miller (39.2%) taking the hill at home in the finale for the Seattle Mariners weekend series with the Chicago White Sox. Miller rebounded from a two-game skid with a solid effort against the Miami Marlins last time out, allowing one run over six innings, fanning six. Miller should make it consecutive strong outings facing an offense with the fourth worst wOBA facing right-handers.

          • Louis Varland (9.1%) has quietly posted five quality starts in his nine outings for the Minnesota Twins. Next up is a home affair with the Detroit Tigers, who are averaging the third fewest runs per game in MLB. When Varland gets into trouble, it's usually due to the long ball, and the Tigers sport the fourth lowest home run rate facing right-handers. They also fan at an above average clip, adding to Varland's allure.

          • Brayan Bello (15.2%) is slated to take the hill in the final game of the fantasy week, so he's a fine, albeit risky pickup for those in close head-to-head matchups. The righty has posted four quality starts in his last six outings, with a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over that span. The Yankees are always dangerous, but without Aaron Judge, their lineup is easier to navigate.

          • There are a couple of offenses to target in case one of your batters is getting a day of rest. The Miami Marlins right-handed contingent is in a great spot on the road against Patrick Corbin. Nationals Park is a nice hitting upgrade, so it's worth checking on the availability of Jorge Soler (69.5%). If the slugger is already rostered, Bryan De La Cruz (27.6%) and Garrett Cooper (2.3%) are fine alternatives.

          • Deeper leagues may want to target the Houston Astros for their home date with Luke Weaver and the Cincinnati Reds. Jose Abreu (62.3%) has been hitting the ball hard, and in the air this month. Jeremy Pena (58.6%) was showing signs of returning to form when he missed a couple of games due to illness. He's back in the lineup and continues to hit well. Corey Julks (1.1%), Chas McCormick (1.7%) and Mauricio Dubon (18.2%) will all be asked to help make up for Yordan Alvarez's absence.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Bullpen usage for Sunday

          By Todd Zola

          • Saturday marked just the second time Paul Sewald has blown a save this season. He was working on consecutive days, but since he threw only 10 pitches on Friday, Saturday was just one of those days, as opposed to fatigue. That said, Sewald, along with setup man Andres Munoz will likely get Sunday off since they've both pitched for two straight days. The caveat is Monday is an off day for the Seattle Mariners, so there's a chance Sewald is used, as he has thrown 29 pitches this weekend, as opposed to Munoz's 37.

          • Josh Hader collected his 17th save with his fifth straight scoreless outing. He threw 19 pitches, but he was working with three days of rest, so San Diego Padres manager Bob Melvin won't hesitate to call Hader's number again Sunday, as he has in the past under similar circumstances.

          • Saturday night's rainout at Fenway Park gives us bonus baseball Sunday, with an extra game to fish for bullpen help. The Boston Red Sox used Kenley Jansen in both ends of a doubleheader earlier this season, so there's precedent for it happening, but picking up Chris Martin or Josh Winckowski could result in saves or holds. The New York Yankees have been using Clay Holmes in more of a fireman's role where he faces the meat of the opposing lineup. With the new ESPN scoring, Holmes can still pick up a hold in this scenario. However, the arrangement puts Michael King, Wandy Peralta and Tommy Kahnle in the mix for both saves and holds.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday

          Prop of the Day

          Jon Gray 4.5 strikeouts (-165/+125)

          PREDICTION

          THE BAT sees Gray putting up 4.5 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 44.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $24.14.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • THE BAT forecasts Gray in the 81st percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

          • Jon Gray will hold the platoon advantage against seven opposing batters today.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • THE BAT X projects Jon Gray to throw 85 pitches today (seventh-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays (19.7 K%, per THE BAT X) project to have the second-least strikeout-heavy set of batters today.

          • Nic Lentz grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate today.

          • Globe Life Field projects as the No. 22 stadium in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, according to THE BAT projection system.