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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 5, 2023, 04:30 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Wednesday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • After a holiday slate with games staggered throughout the day, there is only one afternoon affair on Wednesday, with 14 contests under the lights. The early game is an interleague affair with J.P. France (12.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) and the Houston Astros hosting the Colorado Rockies. With the recent struggles of Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez dealing with a sprained ankle, Houston will rely on France to keep the momentum rolling after the Astros took three of four from the Texas Rangers in the Lone Star Series. France isn't dominant, as he fanned 26 in his last 39 1/3 innings, but he pitched at least six frames in each of those six outings, recording a quality start in the past five. The Rockies' wOBA on the road facing right-handers is a couple of ticks above average, but they do fan at an above average clip, perhaps aiding France in that department.

          • Bobby Miller (40.3% rostered) checks in as the day's top ranked streamer when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Pittsburgh Pirates. Miller began his career with a 0.78 ERA through his first four starts, but the rookie has struggled in his past three, posting a 9.39 ERA and 1.89 WHIP with 12 punch-outs and seven walks over those 15 1/3 frames. The Pirates have the league's worst wOBA with a right-hander on the hill over the past month.

          • Eduardo Rodriguez is a good option for those looking for a spot starter. He is ticketed to come off the IL for the Detroit Tigers against the Oakland Athletics.

          • Something must give on Wednesday when fledgling Boston Red Sox ace Brayan Bello (29.2%) toes the rubber in Fenway Park against the Rangers and the league's highest-scoring offense. After struggling in his first two starts of the season, Bello has recorded a 2.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 59 strikeouts in 65 2/3 stanzas. Granted, his 3.81 xFIP during that span indicates he has been lucky, but the Texas lineup has also been fortunate with an inordinately high batting average with runners in scoring position. Bello has registered at least six innings in seven of his past nine appearances, adding to his fantasy appeal.

          • For those in category leagues, Wednesday is an ideal chance to pad steals with the Cincinnati Reds visiting the Washington Nationals. Josiah Gray will take the ball for the home team. With 12 steals allowed, he's in a group tied for the 10th-most in MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds have swiped the second-most bases in the game. Jake Fraley (31.5%), TJ Friedl (22.4%), Stuart Fairchild (0.1%), Kevin Newman (1.1%) and Will Benson (2.5%) are all capable of padding their pilfers.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Bullpen usage watch for Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Despite issuing two walks with the bases loaded, Josh Hader was credited with his 19th save Tuesday night. He entered the game with the bases loaded and one out. The San Diego Padres were up 8-3 over the Los Angeles Angels, but it was a save scenario since the tying run was on deck. It took Hader 23 pitches to record two outs, but he and the Padres escaped. Hader has now worked on consecutive days, totaling 42 pitches. He's due for a day off with Nick Martinez and Luis Garcia ticketed for late-inning work tonight.

          • Emmanuel Clase recorded his seventh blown save last night after he surrendered Ozzie Albies' second homer of the game, sending the tilt between the Cleveland Guardians and Atlanta Braves into extras. The Guardians would walk it off in the 10th, but their closer has surrendered at least one run in his last three appearances. He has racked up 40 pitches over the past three days, which should signal the night off. Primary setup man Trevor Stephan is similarly taxed, leaving Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos and Eli Morgan to piece together the late innings if the game is close.

          • Not having pitched since the previous Thursday, David Bednar was brought into the eighth inning of Tuesday night's contest with the Los Angeles Dodgers leading the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-6. There was one out and a runner on first. Bednar stranded him there, and after his club rallied for two runs in the top of the ninth, Bednar collected his third win, but not before allowing a one-out single and a walk before getting the last two outs. Bednar used 26 pitches in the five-out effort, but since he was working on four days of rest, he should be able to come back Wednesday.

          • Jordan Romano posted his league-leading 25th save Tuesday, punching out three batters with just 13 pitches. Romano tossed 14 pitches on Sunday, but he has worked in back-to-back fashion with similar recent workloads, so he should be available for Game 2 of the series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox.

          • It came with an anxious moment or two, but David Robertson recorded the out he needed to register his 12th save in the New York Mets' 8-5 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Robertson entered the game with a four-run lead and runners on first and second. He promptly surrendered a single and bases-loaded walk to trim the lead to three. Roberts induced a grounder to end it. He hurled only nine pitches, but it came on top of 15 on Sunday. Still, the combined 24 over the past three days is probably not enough to sideline Robertson for Wednesday's tilt in the desert.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

          The Bat X's Best Stacks for Wednesday

          Prop of the Day

          Lance Lynn, White Sox: Pitching outs prop is 19.5 (-115/-110).

          PREDICTION:

          THE BAT sees Lynn putting up 17.2 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 20.3% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $57.39.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

          • A pitchers' umpire (Chris Guccione) is scheduled behind the plate.

          • Lynn will hold the platoon advantage against six opposing hitters in this game.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

          • The Blue Jays are the fourth-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.

          • Guaranteed Rate Field is the No. 2 field in baseball for boosting home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

          • According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the fifth-most suitable for hitting on the slate.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.3 mph in this game, the fourth-strongest of the day for hitters.