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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday

          Minnesota's Pablo Lopez looks to keep the Brewers in the yard. Michael Reaves/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJul 20, 2024, 03:11 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Unlucky Lopez

          Minnesota Twins SP Pablo Lopez was drafted as a staff ace, but most consider him to be one of the biggest disappointments of the first half. Yes, a 5.11 ERA is much higher than anticipated. Lopez's fantasy managers don't care about his 3.21 xFIP and 3.20 SIERA. Both are career lows, indicating Lopez is throwing the ball better than in any other season. He's just not getting the commensurate outcomes.

          The main culprits are a low 65.5% LOB mark and a bloated 15.8% HR/FB. Everything else checks out at an elite level. Lopez's 22.6% K-BB% is eighth highest among qualified starters. That's ace-like quality.

          His 121 strikeouts are tied for 14th most in MLB, and his eight wins are tied for 18th most. Lopez's WHIP is 32nd lowest. Sure, a staff anchor should boast a lower WHIP, but 32nd is not terrible. In fact, Lopez has been an asset in three of the four categories used in rotisserie scoring. Even so, Lopez's inflated ERA lands him a lowly 133rd on the ESPN Player Rater.

          Lopez is still rostered in 93.1% of ESPN leagues, indicating most are aware that he's pitched much better than appearances. Still, checking on his availability in a trade could prove fruitful. Lopez enjoys a favorable matchup coming out of the break as he and the Twins entertain the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are effective facing right-handers, but their power plummets on the road -- and the chief way for Lopez to regain his old form is to keep the ball in the yard.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          • The Tampa Bay Rays placed 1B Yandy Diaz on the restricted list while he's away from the club attending to personal business. It's unclear how long he'll be absent. Isaac Paredes will move across the diamond to handle first base. The Rays called up Curtis Mead to fill the empty roster spot.

          • Oakland Athletics SS Jacob Wilson made his MLB debut last night. He stroked a single in his first at bat but strained his hamstring while running the bases. Wilson left the contest in the fourth inning. He's considered day-to-day, pending further evaluation.

          • Toronto Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette may have aggravated his right calf last night. Bichette singled but pulled up lame while running to first base. His status is unclear, but considering he missed the final four games heading into the break, it's sage to assume another absence.

          • Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson indicated that C J.T. Realmuto could be activated as soon as this weekend. Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan have been handling the catching duties while Realmuto recovered from right knee meniscus surgery in June.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Saturday's action doesn't get underway until 3:07 p.m. ET. With most rotations reset after the Midsummer Classic, the inventory of available streamers is lower than usual, but there are a few.

          • The highest ranked streaming candidate is Detroit Tigers SP Reese Olson (24.3% rostered in ESPN leagues). He doesn't enjoy the most favorable matchup with a road affair against the Toronto Blue Jays, but Olson has been one of the Tigers' few bright spots over the first half. His 3.30 ERA is just a tad lucky as shown by a 3.59 xFIP and a 3.82 SIERA. Still, those estimators are both well below league average, so even if Olson regresses to his skills level, he's a fantasy asset. The Blue Jays offense ranks mid-pack with a right-hander on the hill.

          • Let's bend the rules a tad and feature Philadelphia Phillies SP Cristopher Sanchez (53.6% rostered) since he's barely over the 50% threshold. Sanchez will face the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, which is a more favorable pitching venue than Sanchez's home on the other side of the Keystone State. The 27-year-old lefty has surrendered just two homers over 103 1/3 innings this season. The Pirates' HR rate facing lefties is below average.

          • New York Mets SP Luis Severino (27.0% rostered) has hurled at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts, including his previous seven. Severino only fanned 40 in those 64 2/3 innings, but innings are integral in points league scoring, so the righty has been a fantasy asset, even without strikeouts. On Saturday, Severino is in a great spot to keep piling up innings when he faces the Miami Marlins in South Beach. The Marlins are averaging the second fewest runs per game while fanning at an above average clip versus righties.

          • Last night's washout in Truist Park gives us bonus baseball today with the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals playing a day-night doubleheader. Both clubs will send a pair of right-handers to the hill, putting the left-handed batters on both teams in the spotlight. For the Braves, Jarred Kelenic (13.4% rostered) and Eddie Rosario are the primary options. For the Cardinals, Alec Burleson (56.1% rostered), Brendan Donovan (48.9%), and Lars Nootbaar (14.4% rostered) are all in play.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: The Los Angeles Angels are sending Jack Kochanowicz to the hill to face the Oakland Athletics in The Coliseum. Kochanowicz looked overmatched in his MLB debut, yielding four earned runs on seven hits to the Seattle Mariners in only three innings. Athletics OF Brent Rooker doesn't enjoy the platoon advantage, but he's been productive against all pitchers. I'm looking for a productive effort from Rooker, so I'm taking the over on 2.5 hits+RBI+runs (+145)

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today