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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday

          Jack Flaherty could be on the move again, but he can be an asset down the stretch. Nic Antaya/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJul 29, 2024, 03:00 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Flaherty will get you everywhere

          Well, maybe not everywhere, but there are some playoff contenders hoping Detroit Tigers SP Jack Flaherty can help them get to the postseason. Flaherty is slated to pitch Monday, but there are rumors the right-hander could be traded at the deadline for the second straight season.

          Rotation mate Tarik Skubal is garnering most of the accolades, including Cy Young Award buzz, but Flaherty is boasting slightly better skills. Skubal sports a 30.0% strikeout rate compared to 32.0% for Flaherty. Skubal's 4.7% walk rate is impressive, but Flaherty's 4.6% mark is a tick lower. The only skills separation between the two hurlers is Flaherty has yielded a few more homers, buoyed by a high 16.3% fly ball-rate.

          Another difference is durability. Skubal has compiled 130 innings over 21 starts with Flaherty managing 106 1/3 frames over 18 outings. Twice before the break, Flaherty needed an injection for back pain. The treatment was effective both times, but it is of some concern that they were even necessary.

          After Flaherty's struggles the past few seasons, the extent of his success in 2024 must be considered a surprise. That said, it is fully supported by his underlying metrics, rendering Flaherty a trade target for fantasy managers as well as MLB clubs with playoff aspirations. Point out the injury risk to hopefully lower the cost of acquisition.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Newly acquired Jazz Chisholm Jr. debuted in center field for the New York Yankees, with OF Aaron Judge serving as the DH. The club is expected to have OF Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup tonight when they visit SP Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies. It will be interesting to see how manager Aaron Boone deploys Chisholm against right-handers. There have been some suggestions that Chisholm could return to the infield, but that introduces risk to an injury-prone player and the Yankees have expressed an interest in having Judge play a corner spot (and not center field). Tonight will provide a glimpse into Boone's plans with a righty on the hill.

          • Texas Rangers SP Jon Gray injured his right groin while taking his warmup pitches prior to the start of yesterday's game against the Toronto Blue Jays. Gray left without throwing an official pitch. Michael Lorenzen worked the final four frames of the 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays. The Rangers then traded Lorenzen to the Royals to fortify Kansas City's playoff aspirations.

          • Atlanta Braves SP Reynaldo Lopez hurled three shutout innings yesterday before leaving due to right forearm tightness. The move was deemed to be precautionary, though Lopez is scheduled for an MRI today.

          • Minnesota Twins 3B Jose Miranda was hit in the helmet with a pitch during the first inning of yesterday's contest. He left the game immediately. Initial evaluation revealed he did not suffer a concussion, but Miranda will be looked at again today. His availability for tonight's opener in Citi Field against the New York Mets is unclear.

          • Seattle Mariners 2B Jorge Polanco exited yesterday's contest in the seventh inning thanks to a sore knee. Polanco has been dealing with a lingering issue. Sunday's removal was precautionary as the Mariners were already enjoying a 5-1 lead. Polanco will be questionable to play as the Mariners open a series tonight in Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Monday's action gets underway early with a 3:05 p.m. ET matinee at Camden Yards as the Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays in the opener of a single-admission doubleheader. Newly acquired Zach Eflin will make his first start for the Orioles and will be opposed by Yariel Rodriguez. The Blue Jays will likely deploy relievers in the nightcap, giving Orioles batters an advantage. Most of the better Orioles hitters are likely unavailable, but there's a chance Ryan O'Hearn (39.0% rostered in ESPN leagues) or Colton Cowser (19.0% rostered) can be picked up, and both have a chance to play in both ends of the twin bill. Another angle is the Baltimore bullpen where Yennier Cano, Jacob Webb and Seranthony Dominguez have a chance for multiple holds, or perhaps a save.

          • Monday's slate is not ideal for fantasy managers hoping to sneak in some early-week pitching spot starts. The top two options are scheduled to square off with Jose Quintana (9.4%) and the New York Mets entertaining Simeon Woods Richardson (8.3%) and the Minnesota Twins. Working at home, Quintana is ranked a bit higher, but the Twins have handled left-handed pitching well all season, and that was with 3B Royce Lewis sidelined for all but 26 games over the first four months. Woods Richardson has pitched well lately with a 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while fanning 16 over his last 16 1/3 innings. Both starters are ranked top five overall Monday, but that's more of an indictment of the ledger than a recommendation to pick them up. They will be better options over the course of the week.

          • The next highest-ranked streaming candidate is Arizona Diamondbacks SP Jordan Montgomery (46.6%). Formulaic rankings have advantages and disadvantages. They downplay recency bias, sometimes to a fault. Montgomery's solid track record can't be forgotten, but his 2024 struggles can't be forgiven. That said, the lefty's first post-break effort was solid, as he limited the Kansas City Royals to just one run over five frames. Montgomery fanned only two, but he administered just one walk. Montgomery enjoys a favorable home matchup against the Washington Nationals. The visitors have already traded OF Jesse Winker and could continue to deal, possible weakening a lineup that is already below average facing lefties.

          • Boston Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta (67.2%) has been alternating solid and subpar efforts. He was ineffective his last time out, as his breaking ball lacked its normal bite at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies scored eight runs (seven earned) in just 2 2/3 innings. However, in his prior effort, Pivetta threw six scoreless frames on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers, fanning eight and yielding just one free pass. Over his last four starts, Pivetta has compiled 34 punch-outs in 22 1/3 innings, walking only five. on Monday, Pivetta has a home date with a Seattle Mariners lineup that totes league's highest strikeout rate facing righties into Fenway Park.

          • Betting tip of the day: Royals OF Hunter Renfroe has quietly been one of the most productive hitters in the league over the last month with a .321/.396/.494 line spanning his previous 25 games. On Monday, the Royals have a road date with the Chicago White Sox and SP Chris Flexen. Flexen is one of the least-effective hurlers in the league, giving Renfroe a chance to stay productive. I'll take over 2.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+135).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday