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          Fantasy baseball Monday advice: Festa, Sanchez among top streaming options

          David Festa is in a great spot to improve his record as the Twins open a home set against the Angels. Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 9, 2024, 03:29 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Party with Festa

          The Minnesota Twins are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, currently competing with the Kansas City Royals for the third spot while trying to keep the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners at bay. Everyone involved is dealing with injuries, so they are counting on under-the-radar players to step up.

          The Twins have played the last month without their co-ace RHP Joe Ryan. Fortunately, their other ace, RHP Pablo Lopez, has picked up the slack, as has RHP Bailey Ober. Ober has also incurred a couple of hiccups, which makes the second half contributions of RHP Simeon Woods Richardson much more important.

          Rounding out the Twins rotation is a pair of rookies: RHP Zebby Matthews and David Festa. Both are 24 years old and aren't considered top prospects, but they have MLB aspirations.

          On the surface, it appears that Festa is struggling. He sports a 2-5 record with a 4.75 ERA over 47 1/3 innings. Nine of his 10 appearances have been starts.

          Things look a lot better under the hood, specifically a 3.28 xFIP and 3.26 SIERA. Festa has been victimized by a low 70.5% left on base mark.

          The most encouraging metric is Festa's 22.6 K-BB% mark. Granted, he's around 100 innings short of qualifying, but if he did, he'd rank fourth overall in the category. Clearly, Festa would have been hard pressed to maintain elite peripherals over a full season. However, the stellar K-BB% helps show that Festa has pitched better than his surface.

          On Monday, Festa (4.8% rostered) is in a great spot to improve his record and ERA. The Twins open a home set with the Los Angeles Angels. The visitors tote the league's least potent offense facing right-handers into Target Field. Furthermore, they placed two-thirds of their starting outfield on the IL over the weekend. Festa isn't the top ranked steaming option on Monday's ledger, but he's my pick to click.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Cincinnati Reds 2B Jonathan India left yesterday's contest courtesy of a sore left elbow. He played five innings but was replaced by Amed Rosario in the bottom of the sixth. It's unclear how long India has been experiencing discomfort, but since the All-Star break he's hitting just .188/.295/.324, including an 0-for-13 stretch over his last four games. India's availability for tonight's road date with the Atlanta Braves is unknown.

          • Los Angeles Dodgers OF Teoscar Hernandez missed his second consecutive game due to a left ankle contusion. He was hit by a pitch on Friday night, with the ensuing MRI and CT scan both coming back clean. It isn't clear if Hernandez will be able to return to the lineup tonight when the Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs.

          • The Philadelphia Phillies infield is down another player with Edmundo Sosa now placed on the 10-day IL after experiencing back spasms. Sosa had been filling in for 1B/3B Alec Bohm, who remains out thanks to a left hand strain. Kody Clemens and Buddy Kennedy will man the hot corner until Bohm or Sosa returns. Bohm is eligible to come back this coming weekend, but the exact timetable is not fully known.

          • Seattle Mariners OF Victor Robles missed his second straight game on Sunday. He was in the original lineup, but then scratched with lingering soreness from being hit in the elbow by a pitch on Friday. The club hopes today's off day will be enough for Robles to resume action on Tuesday when the team hosts the San Diego Padres.

          • Also for Seattle, SP Luis Castillo had to leave yesterday's outing due to a hamstring injury. He completed just three innings. Castillo is slated for an MRI today so his status should be clarified soon.

          • New York Mets 2B/OF Jeff McNeil is done for the season after fracturing his wrist on a hit by pitch Friday night. Jose Iglesias will see most of the action at the keystone with DJ Stewart recalled to fill the open roster spot.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • Monday begins the second week of the first round of playoffs in standard ESPN leagues. Good luck to everyone competing for a berth in the finals. Nine evening affairs comprise the docket, with three games kicking off the action at 6:40 p.m. ET.

          • The highest ranked streaming option is Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez (37.9% rostered). The Phillies open a home series with the Tampa Bay Rays. Sanchez has logged four straight quality starts with a 2.60 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 27 2/3 innings. He punched out 22 while walking just a pair over that span. Over the past month, the Rays have struggled facing lefties, fanning at a 27.6% clip with a low .261 wOBA.

          • Miami Marlins RHP Valente Bellozo is coming off one of his best efforts of the season, hurling six scoreless frames at home against the Washington Nationals. That said, Bellozo only fanned one in that outing, bringing his total to just 33 in 47 2/3 innings. Even so, Bellozo is in play as a Monday spot starter by virtue of a juicy road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over the past month, the Pirates sport the sixth lowest wOBA facing right-handers.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Minnesota Twins are big favorites for their home date against the Los Angeles Angels. The Twins are in the thick of the playoff chase while the Angels are playing out the string with an injury-riddled lineup. I expect Twins SP David Festa to snap his three-game losing streak, so I'm backing Festa to record the win (+175).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday