The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown will review if Adrian Peterson's successful debut with Arizona is an omen for things to come, detail the scoring sustainability for Jerick McKinnon and Jay Ajayi and look at the blocking issues that are crushing the fantasy value of nearly every Raiders player.
Adrian Peterson and Arizona's much-improved run blocking is a win-win for fantasy managers
The Cardinals' rushing attack had been among the worst in the league prior to Week 6, as Arizona ranked tied for 25th in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric from Weeks 1-5 with a 36.1 percent total in that category. Their ball carriers didn't even fare well when given quality run blocking, as the Cardinals' 5.3-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric made them the only team with a GBYPA of less than 6 yards.
That didn't look to change against a Tampa Bay rushing defense that placed first in GBR allowed in Weeks 1-5 (31.3 percent), but the addition of a power back like Peterson seemed to motivate the Arizona blockers to the point where they posted a 53.1 percent GBR in this matchup. Peterson racked up a 9.1 GBYPA total that was nearly 4 yards higher than what Arizona had posted as a team prior to this game.
The Cardinals' ability to dominate a stout defensive front seven bodes well for Peterson's fantasy managers, as Arizona's next three foes (Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks) are far from powerhouses in the advanced defensive rushing metrics categories. That points toward Peterson's dominant performance as potentially being par for the course for him in the near future.
The best of both worlds for McKinnon
McKinnon has been among the best fantasy running backs over the past two weeks, as his 51.5 points ranks third at that position during that time frame. This may seem like a surprise performance, but it's worth noting that he placed tied for fifth in GBYPA in the 2014 season (9.4) and is on pace to exceed that total this season (10.1). A better quality of run blocking also has led McKinnon to post improved numbers this season. Last year, he received good run blocking on only 31.9 percent of his carries, a mark that ranked 33rd out of 42 qualifying running backs. That number has jumped to 43.9 percent this season, which looks to be a maintainable pace given that the Vikings have posted a 40.9 percent GBR this season.
For those concerned that Latavius Murray may vulture more of McKinnon's carries, it's worth noting that Murray has a 6.1 GBYPA this season and had a 7.7 GBYPA last season, both of which are well short of McKinnon's aforementioned GBYPA totals. McKinnon may not be given bell-cow status, but he is the better running back in the Vikings' backfield and should get the lion's share of the carries because of that.
Now may be a good time to buy low on Jay Ajayi
Ajayi has been one of the biggest fantasy busts this season due in large part to abysmal run blocking. From Weeks 1-4, Miami had a 23.0 percent GBR, a mark that ranked last in the league and made them the only team with a GBR of lower than 30 percent at that point of the season.
That group has seen a huge turnaround the past two weeks, as Miami has posted a 44.8 percent GBR during that time frame. The improved blocking pace could continue, as the Dolphins' next four opponents (New York Jets, Baltimore, Oakland and Carolina) all rank in the bottom half of the league in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that measures overall rushing game effectiveness.
This combination of factors could make Ajayi a very good low-cost trade candidate, as he has posted only 20.9 points (ESPN standard scoring) during this improved blocking era and thus might not be seen as being as valuable as he might end up being over the upcoming quartet of contests.
A lack of vertical passing is crushing fantasy values for the Raiders
In looking for reasons why Derek Carr had the seventh-lowest fantasy point total of his career against the Chargers (6.8 points), one of the first metrics that stands out is that he was under pass-rush pressure on only 6.5 percent of his dropbacks. That was the lowest total in Week 6 through the Sunday games and is fairly impressive given that the Chargers came into that game ranked sixth in pass pressure rate (30.3 percent, per ESPN Stats & Information).
That may make it sound like the Raiders had superb pass blocking, yet the reality is the pressure rate number was low because Carr attempted only six vertical passes (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield). That is tied for the fourth-lowest single-game vertical pass total of Carr's career.
This avoidance of vertical passing has been standard operating procedure for Oakland this season, as the Raiders rank 28th in air yards per attempt (6.8) and last in average time before pass (2.2 seconds). Only the woeful Chicago Bears passing game has a lower percentage of attempts thrown 20 or more yards downfield (6.6 percent).
The lack of downfield passing drives home the idea that Oakland's coaching staff doesn't seem to trust the offensive line to hold up to more pressure. This conservative approach has hamstrung this platoon and by proxy the fantasy values of Carr, Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch. Unless or until the Raiders' pass blocking steps up to the point that Oakland's coaches will call for more downfield throws, most of the Silver and Black's players will continue to disappoint their fantasy managers.