Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions, even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Alright, kids of the '90s, this one's for you.
Remember those Magic Eye optical illusion posters? Malls across America were littered with kiosks selling these multicolored graphs and grids. They challenged perspective vision-benders to acquire a "new view," inviting would-be customers to stare into an intentionally patterned image. If said onlooker crouched at just the right angle, tilted their head slightly and squinted appropriately, a 3D image would miraculously take shape, seeming to "pop out" of the background.
The headaches we gave ourselves! And the payoff was minimal. Though, these were the trappings of a (mostly) analog youth.
Personally, I was horrible at locating the hidden vignette. It didn't matter how many times I "relaxed my eyes," the roaring lion or wobbly peace sign rarely came into focus. That, however, didn't stop me from buying a stack of assorted postcards featuring various visual puzzles, or from being impressed when other onlookers would stare into the frenetically checked abyss. I accepted the dare and appreciated its difficulty.
What spurred me on the most was knowing that there existed a secret and that I didn't have the goods to discover it. Call it early-onset FOMO? Watching the delight and ensuing satisfaction wash over the faces of my friends when they were finally able to unlock the visual riddle only invigorated my resolve ... and further tested my patience. There was a party in that print, and I was going home with a lampshade on my head.
But it didn't always work out. I'd run out of time. Or become consumed with frustration. Not everything is solvable; and even if it is, it's not always enjoyable. Looking too hard for the thing we're supposed to see can often leave us feeling more irked and confused than ever before. Perhaps that's why the Magic Eye fad disappeared so quickly. We shifted our focus to something different, hoping for a clearer picture.
This is what crossed my mind while taking in Baltimore at Cincinnati on Sunday. Despite noting issues within the Ravens secondary and projecting a tightly contested matchup, I remained fixated on Joe Burrow's potential underwhelm. My gaze was so tightly directed on one piece of the situation that I failed to pull back and take in the broader (and more accurate) view.
The same could be said of Dontayvion Wicks' performance in Week 4. I was well aware of his inefficiencies in Week 3 (converting 5 of 13 looks), but was so dazzled by the overall stat line that I allowed myself to free-fall into an upside-only argument. Looking back, a catch rate of 39% shouldn't be entirely surprising.
While hindsight remains 20/20, accountability needs to be taken and all slides of the puzzle should be examined. There will be times when I see a duck and another manager sees a rabbit. I can more easily live with my takes, however, when the investigation is thorough. Boldly printed answers might not immediately materialize. But that's not going to stop me from keeping my eyes on the prize.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers: Four years into his NFL career, Love remains an enigma. Afforded the opportunity to learn behind a future Hall of Famer, his entrée to the league has been more "Almost There" than "Everything Everywhere All at Once." There exists a topsy-turvy nature to his production, incorporating chest-grabbing dynamism and head-scratching mistakes. Such is life for a young player in the throes of professional development.
I am not interested in pretending away the bad. Five interceptions over three starts is concerning. Like most things, however, it's complicated. Love has also registered three multi-TD efforts over the same span of time. He ranks seventh at the position in interceptable passes (6). And in a five-way tie for fifth among QBs in passing scores (8). Love's efficiency numbers may be paradoxical, but his on-field play always seems to finish better than it started. Having orchestrated second-half surges in two consecutive outings, the 25-year-old never seems to shrink in big moments. Yes, he makes mistakes, but they don't appear to ruin him. It's that shake-it-off mentality that keeps me believing in the solidity of his fantasy floor.
Logging 15-plus fantasy points in each game, Love has yet to fall outside of the top 14 fantasy producers in any week he has played this season. I predict a similar showing versus the Cardinals in Week 6. Arizona's defense managed to stifle Brock Purdy, forcing three turnovers in the second half of Week 5. Still, the 49ers posted 384 yards of total offense last weekend. The Cardinals have absolutely stiffened in moments, but overall the tenor of the defense has remained generous. Arizona has allowed the second-highest completion percentage (73%), the third-highest yards per attempt (8.1 yds), and the sixth-fewest pressures (41) to opposing passers thus far into 2024.
Love figures to take advantage of his opportunities in what's projected to be a high-scoring game (49.5) at Lambeau. Consider the Packers QB a top-10 fantasy option at the position come Sunday. (And maybe sneak the Over on 0.5 interceptions into a parlay.)
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets: If Love is shaking things off, then the Jets are shaking things up. The franchise is entirely too used to drama, and Woody Johnson is making headlines again after unceremoniously showing Robert Saleh the door. It's an interesting choice, considering one side of the ball looks markedly worse than the other. Regardless, the head coach is the big boss who just got toppled. Whether offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will be relieved of his playcalling duties remains to be seen. A change in offensive strategy would, at least partially, improve Hall's production.
The 23-year-old is getting stuffed. Legitimately. For context, nearly a quarter of Hall's runs have been stopped for a loss (15 of 65 carries, RB4). Part of that is the offensive line. Some of it could be game flow. But a big portion of it also has to be scheme. New York has recorded a league-worst 80.4 rushing yards per game. The team's efforts have been woefully inefficient, as the Jets have averaged the second-fewest yards per rush (3.6) in the NFL. Here's a catch: The Jets are registering 1.77 yards before contact (worst in the NFL) while also managing 1.79 yards after contact (16th in the NFL). Breece can find a crease when given the shot.
There's a glimmer that his chances of getting loose just improved with the news that Todd Downing will be taking over the Jets' playcalling duties. Downing served as the Titans' OC in 2021 and 2022, which means his job was getting the most out of Derrick Henry. During that time, Downing installed the highest design run rate (46%) in the league. While the team managed a sub-optimal 4.4 yards per carry, nearly 42% of Tennessee's total yards (4th-highest such rate over that span) came via ground. That's what happens when a team which lacks elite QB talent relies on a star running back.
The situation is, certainly, not apples to apples. However, there exists some obvious overlap, which should (at least partially) boost Hall's stock. As should the matchup. The Bills rank dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, giving up an average of 5.2 YPC to opposing rushers. Buffalo's defense has additionally allowed the most receptions (36) to RBs. Hall's every-down appeal (along with a possible shift in offensive ideology, assuming Todd Downing holds the clipboard on Sunday) should penetrate the holes in Buffalo's defense, providing the talented back with low-end RB1 appeal in Week 6.
(Editor's Note: the above paragraph has been updated to reflect news of Todd Downing's playcalling duties, which broke after initial publication)
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers: "Anchor RB" drafters may be cursing Hall, but "Zero RB" truthers are crowning Hubbard. The Oklahoma State product shined as the Panthers' lone offensive spark on Sunday. Falling just three yards shy of his third straight 100-plus-yard rushing effort, Hubbard remained efficient and productive, finishing inside the top 10 fantasy RBs for a third consecutive week. He's now fantasy's RB7 overall, averaging 19.8 touches per game over the past 4 weeks and 21.7 per game with Andy Dalton at quarterback.
With Hubbard succeeding, Carolina can slow play its second-round pick, Jonathon Brooks. The rookie has yet to be activated from the non-football injury list, nor has he begun to practice with the team. That should keep Hubbard (who recorded 13 carries and four targets in playing 77% of snaps before starters were benched last weekend) in top-12 positional territory.
The Panthers are 6-point home dogs, but the Falcons are soft against the run. Atlanta has faced the second-most rushing attempts (170) while simultaneously allowing the fourth-most rushing yards (742) to opposing backfields. Given the complexion of Carolina's offense, Hubbard figures to find plenty of run again in Week 6.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals: Evolution takes time. We don't like hearing that, especially about highly touted rookies with gold-flecked NFL bloodlines. But that has been the case for Harrison. His rapport with Kyler Murray remains a work in progress.
Murray has made a habit of prioritizing Harrison, targeting the first-year wideout an average of eight times per game since Week 1. Unfortunately, 27% of Harrison's looks have been deemed off-target (WR9). This helps to explain the 22-year-old's 50% catch rate (which ranks 75th out of 80 qualified WRs). The issue is not wholly QB or WR. Rather, a philosophy that a pass catcher of Harrison's esteem should be relied upon in off-script situations and be granted the opportunity to reel in circus grabs. It's a work in progress ... one that figures to improve as the season wears on.
But for redraft enthusiasts, the future matters less than the now. Clarity for the approaching weekend will, frustratingly, depend on Jaire Alexander's availability. The Packers' star cornerback has been sidelined for three games with a groin issue. His return would certainly lower Harrison's ceiling. Regardless, Harrison (and his 402 air yards) deserves top-20 positional consideration even if his showing feels rather boom-or-bust. Managers would be wise to flex for floor and pay attention to balance when starting the rookie receiver this weekend.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens: Roller coasters are meant to be fun, but Flowers' has been uncomfortably floor-less. After starting his sophomore effort recording double-digit targets in back-to-back games, the Boston College product drew a total of six looks over his next two contests. Thankfully, his production rebounded, as he converted seven of a season-high 12 targets for 111 yards in the Ravens' gutsy overtime win on Sunday.
Both of those pesky, low-target outings occurred during games in which Baltimore was leading by more than 10 points in the first half. The Ravens' desire to run -- particularly when the squad is up by a considerable margin -- is not a stunning realization. But projecting the timing of such occurrences can be consuming. Game script is going to come for every player (and manager). Starting a team's uncontested No. 1 WR, however, increases the odds of surviving the ups and downs.
Flowers is that dude. His 26% target share ranks a respectable 16th at the position. Interestingly, his four-target game (Week 3) accounted for 27% of Lamar Jackson's throws. In each of his high-target efforts, the Ravens never led by more than 10 points. While Baltimore enters Week 6 as 6.5-point favorites, my money is still on Flowers to deliver WR2 numbers for fantasy purposes. Washington hasn't trailed by more than seven points since Week 1 (i.e. Jayden Daniels' NFL debut). Additionally, this matchup is tied for the highest projected point total (52.5) of the whole slate (along with Detroit at Dallas). Expect Flowers' presence to be felt, even if it's not worth screaming about.
Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots: While the present remains undeniably pressing, drumbeats can happen in season. The pa-rup-a-pum-pum surrounding New England's second-round selection is becoming too loud to ignore. Polk has drawn 13 targets over his past two contests. His six looks in Week 5 equaled his total number of opportunities from Weeks 1 through 3, suggesting an intentional increase in involvement. The rookie's playing time and routes run have additionally progressed.
Had Polk's 12-yard TD (made with a little more than a minute left on the clock) not been overturned, the former Washington Husky would have cleared 10 fantasy points and been on most managers' radars. Given the upcoming change at QB with Drake Maye making his debut in lieu of Jacoby Brissett, Polk's arrow continues to point skyward. If benches allow, he's worth a speculative stash, especially with the Patriots likely to be chasing points for the bulk of the season.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions: LaPorta is not the hero we need, nor the one we deserve. The tight end position has been dubbed (fairly or not) a "wasteland" every year. This go-around, however, the phrase feels fitting. Factually speaking, a tight end has registered 10-plus fantasy points exactly 45 times so far this season. Moreover, a tight end has drawn at least six targets in 42 contests thus far. Unfortunately, LaPorta has failed to meet either of those benchmarks. In fact, LaPorta's targets have maxed out at five, and his fantasy points at a whopping 9.3 (a whole 0.2 points fewer than Mark Andrews' outing in Week 5).
Jameson Williams' emergence has put a depressing dent in LaPorta's volume. More specifically, the lightning-quick wideout has forced LaPorta to share the red area of the field. While Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the team in red zone looks (as he did last season), Williams' five red zone shots ranks third on the squad, behind Jahmyr Gibbs. LaPorta, on the other hand, is tied for fourth among pass catchers (with fellow TE Brock Wright), having drawn just two high-value opportunities. Blarg.
While the tide doesn't figure to fully turn, LaPorta could deliver an uptick in production on Sunday. The Lions will travel to Arlington, Texas, to take on a Cowboys squad that has been depleted by injuries. Dallas struggled to contain the middle of the field, giving up six of nine grabs and two scores to Pittsburgh's tight ends on Sunday night. LaPorta's odds of forcing a POV shift are additionally bettered in what's expected to be a high-flying affair (52.5). His value may never come into full focus, but this is a week worth looking (and leaning) into.
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.