After last year's attempt at using a combination of front-facing and underlying numbers to predict a World Series winner, we are back with a tweaked formula in hopes of better results.
We used eight categories last time: home runs, productive contact, top-of-the-order stars, baserunning, big-three starting pitching, high-strikeout bullpen, up-the-middle defense and manager. Gone this year are two subjective categories -- stars and managers -- as well as baserunning. Even though stolen bases have increased -- they're at 0.56 per playoff game compared to 0.425 last year -- among the remaining teams, only Arizona, Philadelphia and Atlanta are real threats to run.
Instead, we've added two purely numbers-driven categories: clutchness and two-strike aptitude on the offensive side, working counts on the pitchers' side. And in that vein, no longer are teams receiving points based on rankings against the other playoff squads. They'll be judged compared to the entirety of Major League Baseball and, based on those numbers, assigned points.
Off the charts (10 points): A true outlier
Elite (8 points): Well above-average
Good (6 points): Slightly above-average
Below-average (4 points): Shockingly, this means below-average
Problematic (2 points): A potential issue
At the end, all the points will be totaled and the team with the most points will be the favorite. So let's get to it. We'll start with the bats -- and the most telling category of all.
