After a two week wait, the NBL23 Championship series has arrived.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to answer three of the main talking points entering a series that could go the distance in the best of five format.
Who wins MVP? Who is the title X factor? Who ultimately wins?
Let's get into it.
Who is the Championship series X factor?
Kane Pitman: Tom Abercrombie (New Zealand).
It's hard to believe the wiley old vet is set to turn 36 in a couple of months but he has pieced together a typically consistent season. After a delayed start due to a brutal eye injury, Abercrombie made his season debut against the Kings in November, but has yet to have a major scoring impact in the three games against the defending champs. In the Breakers win over Sydney in late January, Abercrombie played 23 minutes and attempted just one shot. Knocking down 41.5% of his 3-point tries on the season, Abercrombie can provide the Breakers with a much-needed offensive spark with a double-digit scoring performance in a game or two. A fifth NBL championship could be on offer if he can.
Olgun Uluc: Dejan Vasiljevic.
He was the Kings' big shot maker during last season's Grand Final series, but has found it tough finding his rhythm during this postseason. We did see a glimpse of the heartbreaking shots he can make in that Game 3 against the Taipans, but the Kings will be wanting the combo guard to snap out of this recent rough stretch he's had, because a red-hot Vasiljevic raises the ceiling of the team immensely. Vasiljevic re-finding his form is the sort of thing that takes the Kings from being a competitive No. 1 seed to the overwhelming favourite to win the series.
Peter Hooley: It's weird that a veteran of his ability can even be an x-factor, but for me Tom Abercrombie could be the guy to completely swing this series.
He's become one of the best defenders in the league with the way he avoids screens and alters shots, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got some small time on Xavier Cooks if he got rolling. He will likely go to DJ Vasiljevic and try and keep him quiet, and that's usually where Abercrombie shines. He makes shooters have to work even harder just to get space to get their shot off and if he can wear down DJ over the series -- advantage New Zealand.
Who wins the series MVP?
Kane Pitman: Cooks should be red hot favourite, but If the Breakers are to win the title, it will be Jarrell Brantley.
The Breakers big man will most likely accept the primary defensive role on Cooks, with his ability to slow the MVP getting downhill critical to the defensive success of the Breakers. New Zealand have beaten the Kings once this season and on that night, Brantley tallied 30 points, while adding nine rebounds and five assists. With both players looking to be ultra-aggressive attacking the basket, staying out of foul trouble will be paramount. An absolute box office individual matchup.
Olgun Uluc: Xavier Cooks.
The Kings are the favourites to win the series and Cooks is playing at a level where winning back-to-back Grand Final MVPs is absolutely on the cards. He's shown to be effective against the Breakers this season and, while he'll have his hands full being guarded by Jarrell Brantley, the safe bet is on the regular season MVP to put on a show.
Peter Hooley: I'm staying on the defensive end and going away from stats to give my pick here. If Sydney can come out on top, I think Justin Simon could be the MVP of the series.
He was snubbed for DPOY in regular season and he will be relishing the opportunity to go to Barry Brown Jr and try and limit him. If Simon can control that individual battle in his favour, it will tilt the scales in Sydney's favour big time. He also averaged 14 points per game against New Zealand in the regular season, too.
Who wins the NBL23 title?
Kane Pitman: Kings in five.
They've been on top of the standings all season long; they have the league MVP and possess a top-three offence and defence in the league. The Breakers ability to defend makes me confident the series will extend, but based on the season numbers, it appears the Kings just have a fraction more offensive firepower. The Breakers won't fear the road however, where they held a league-best 11-3 record during the regular season, including one win in Sydney. This is going to be a whole lot of fun.
Olgun Uluc: Kings in 4.
Both teams match up evenly in a lot of ways. It'll be a battle physically, we have two of the top-three defensive teams, and there's elite top-tier talent on both sides. The two things that I think get Sydney over the top are the fact that they've been a much more consistent offensive team over the course of the season, and they have Cooks, who's the best player in this series. The Breakers will undoubtedly put up a legitimate fight, but it's tough to go against the reigning champs.
Peter Hooley: Kings in five.
It's easy to say that you think this series may go to five games because it's the two best teams in the competition. However, I think we are going to see some real funky things on both ends from both coaches early on and see how the chess game plays out from there. For example, do the Breakers start Pardon on Cooks to keep him around the rim where he does his best work defensively? Or will they keep him with his traditional matchup in Soares who likes to sit on the three, which will take Pardon away from the paint? It's going to be a fascinating coaches battle and in the end I have to give Sydney the nod because they've been there and done this. I also think their depth puts them in a great position to succeed over the entire series.