Don't be surprised to hear a few different things throughout the 2023-24 NBL season.
One is that the league is as talented as it's ever been; and that's true. The top-end players are as high a level as ever, and the prospects across the board - Next Stars or otherwise - will be must-watch every game.
The other is parity. With the exception of maybe one team, this might be the most competitive the NBL has looked in a long while. The Sydney Kings are well-built to three-peat, and Melbourne United retooled in a significant way, but, still, no matter where a team is on the ladder, we're likely to see competitive contests every night.
Add all of that up and it makes for what should be one hell of a season, so here's your team-by-team breakdown: who'll start, what to like, and what could go wrong.
Adelaide 36ers
Projected starters
Mitch McCarron, Sunday Dech, Trey Kell II, Jacob Wiley, Isaac Humphries
Now, this lineup can and will likely change as the season progresses, primarily because the 36ers are on the hunt for a new import that would ostensibly slot right in as a starter. There's a semblance of balance here - and even more so if the 36ers opt for an import point guard - but the big question is whether there's enough elite talent, particularly from a creation standpoint, to be competitive with the upper echelon of teams.
What to like
In a sea of negatives, the play of some of the 36ers' local players has stood out as a shining light in the preseason.
Isaac Humphries looks healthy and poised to provide a high-level two-way impact for CJ Bruton's team, while Jason Cadee has shown to be a settling force the team will need as it progresses through the season with roster instability. The other potential positive worth keeping an eye on is the idea of giving Trey Kell another shot in the NBL. The opinion of Kell is mixed among league decision-makers but some are extremely high on his skillset, so there's a chance he emerges as an All-NBL level player for these 36ers, which would really change their fortunes in a big way.
What could go wrong?
Well, things are already not going handsomely. Jamaal Franklin has already been cut and the experiment of treating Trenton Flowers like a primary point guard is already scrapped.
So, that leads us to the big question mark here, which is if these 36ers have enough time to find their footing. They're already behind when it comes to developing on-court chemistry, and all of these ins and outs and changes to player roles will only delay that even more. The teething taking longer than expected means they'll find it tough to develop a defensive identity - something they haven't had in the last few seasons; why they've missed the postseason in all of those years - and, while Kell and Jacob Wiley has shown the glimpses of producing in the NBL, there are better, more proven import trios out there in the league.
The balance of the 36ers is already off, they're already making changes, and the talent probably isn't there to keep them afloat until things settle.
Brisbane Bullets
Projected starters
Shannon Scott, Nathan Sobey, Chris Smith, Josh Bannan, Aron Baynes
Barring injuries or something unforeseen, this feels like one of the safest starting units to lock in. Nathan Sobey finally has a point guard next to him, with the Bullets opting for a reliable presence in Shannon Scott. Chris Smith will be one of the league's best shot-makers from beyond the three-point line, while there's a sense these Bullets like what Josh Bannan brings to the table from an activity standpoint, so they're likely to pair him in the frontcourt with Aron Baynes.
What to like
The Bullets will enter the new season with one of the best benches in the league.
This team has the potential to come at you in waves, with Mitch Norton steering the ship for their second unit. Tyrell Harrison, if healthy, could be a starter-level player backing up Baynes at the five-spot, while Isaac White is there to provide a much-needed scoring and creation punch.
Justin Schueller's team will have a defensive identity that will require him to dip deep into his bench, and the talent is there from one-through-12 to not lose too much when they go down their rotation. It's the thing that'll make them a tough, competitive matchup every night - even if the talent on the other side is better - and, if they can defend as advertised, don't be surprised if this group is able to flirt with a playoff spot.
What could go wrong?
The floor of these Bullets rises with the depth, but the ceiling will be determined by the play of Baynes and Sobey.
At their best, these are a pair of All-NBL level players. Baynes has shown he can still be a defensive force, elite screener, and the touch is still there when finishing around the rim. Sobey will get to play off the ball more this season and can still score in bunches when he gets into rhythm; we saw his three-point shooting volume increase through his NBL1 season so there's a chance we see more of that this NBL campaign.
Both, however, can be inconsistent from game to game. You can maybe put that down to the volatility of last season - on and off the court - but how reliable this pair will be night in and night out is a legitimate question going into the season, and will more than likely be the biggest factor in how high the Bullets are able to finish.
Watch every game of the 2023/24 NBL season LIVE only on ESPN
Cairns Taipans
Projected starters
Taran Armstrong, Tahjere McCall, Bul Kuol, Sam Waardenburg, Sam Mennenga
This lineup is big, has a ton of creativity, and versatility across the board. Armstrong projects as one of the best distributors in the league, and could work really well with the slashing of McCall and the spot-up shooting game of Kuol. Then, one of the most enjoyable things to watch this season will be the partnership between the two Kiwis in Adam Forde's frontcourt - Waardenburg and Mennenga - both of whom can score at all three levels, and have already developed chemistry with one another.
What to like
The creativity of these Taipans, and how dynamic they are, could be off the charts.
Armstrong leading the way is a big part of that, of course, but it's also because of the sorts of pieces they have around him. From Kuol, to Bob Klintman, the Kiwi frontcourt, Lat Mayen, Akoldah Gak, Jonah Antonio - the list can go on - Adam Forde's team just has so much size, shooting, athleticism, and length. Basically everyone can rip it off the defensive board and start the break, and we'll see a lot of five-out with this team because they can all hit from downtown. The Taipans can push it because they have that youth and athleticism, or they can slow it down and take advantage of their size down low, with the shooting to supplement that.
This will be purely position less basketball from Forde's Taipans, and the versatility up and down the roster could make them a really tough team to guard.
What could go wrong?
The youth... again.
We said this last season and were wrong, but this group is particularly young. Their starting point guard is 22, and most of their roster is 26 or under. Now, Forde and the rest of that group are confident that age is just a number, and that they're more than capable of competing, but reps do matter. Every night, they'll be going up against teams with a heap more experience and professional reps under their belt, so that could be a tough thing to overcome.
Patrick Miller will play a role in settling things - he's a veteran who's had experience playing pro basketball around the world - and so will McCall, so there are some redeeming factors here. It's the identity the Taipans wanted to lean into, and it comes with a lot of benefits, but so much youth could come with some growing pains; we'll see how this group gets through those.
Illawarra Hawks
Projected starters
Justin Robinson, Tyler Harvey, Wani Swaka Lo Buluk, Gary Clark, Sam Froling
Robinson being healthy this season means Harvey can slide back to his off-ball role, with Swaka Lo Buluk also now set to enjoy a similar role he had with the Sydney Kings a few years ago; a low-pressure, three-and-D role alongside a heap of talent. Gary Clark projects as one of the league's next high-level forwards, while Froling returns as the anchor inside the paint.
What to like
The Hawks roster construction was on point this off-season, so they enter this campaign with the positional size and depth that may well be the best in the league.
This team just doesn't really lose much when they go to their bench. Those wing spots are filled by Hyunjung Lee and Todd Blanchfield - a pair of spot-up sharpshooters - while 19-year-old Lachlan Olbrich was a revelation through the preseason and gives Jacob Jackomas a really high-level backup at either big position. Mason Peatling has championship experience, Daniel Grida should be healthy to start the season, and there's some hope in what their Next Star, AJ Johnson, could bring to the table in the backcourt as the season progresses.
After winning just three games last season, the Hawks are significantly more talented and have the depth to compete in games for 40 minutes.
What could go wrong?
What this team does at the point when Robinson goes to the bench is still somewhat of an unknown, so that's where their downfall could be.
There just isn't much backcourt creation on this roster outside of their starting point guard, so there's potential for things to be stifled as the season progresses. Johnson doesn't look ready to play impact minutes for a professional basketball team, while Will Hickey is still in his development stages as a point guard. Biwali Bayles is a development player and could get some burn at the point, so the depth in that position isn't great going into the season. Depth is great but making sure those pieces are in an organised system and can flourish is the key; the lack of creation options on the perimeter could be something that halts this team from reaching its potential.
Melbourne United
Projected starters
Matthew Dellavedova, Shea Ili, Chris Goulding, Luke Travers, Jo Lual Acuil Jr.
That's right: five locals. Acuil Jr. won't start the season because of a wrist injury, but this is the group United wants to open games with. Dellavedova and Ili are a feisty backcourt that will be unbelievably tough to go up against, and they're bolstered by the scoring and shooting of Goulding. Travers was Dean Vickerman's big free agent signing, and should be an elite connector between all of the talent in this lineup.
What to like
All of the talent.
There's no denying how talented this United team is on paper. They enter this season with easily the best local talent in the NBL, from Dellavedova, to Goulding, Ili, Travers, Acuil. Jr., and then they have Ian Clark. We mentioned all of those names and there's still Ariel Hukporti to add to that mix.
Dean Vickerman's team just has so much top-end talent to work with, with a ton of creation from those pieces, too. The depth is decent - Tanner Krebs, Kyle Bowen, and Flynn Cameron round out the group of guys who could earn a spot in the rotation - but this team will lean a lot on those guys up top. If they can guard like a typical Vickerman team, then they should - rightly - enter the season as one of the favourites to win it all.
What could go wrong?
United will get solid creation across the board, but they still need to put the ball in the hole, and their wing scoring is something that seems slightly lacking.
Goulding will continue to be their main perimeter scoring piece, and Clark can hurt you in spurts, but there aren't too many dynamic wing guys on this team who've demonstrated to be aggressive at getting points on the board. That may change if Dellavedova can continue to score at the high level he did in the preseason, but the balance feels the slightest bit off; the lack of off-ball scoring options on the perimeter is something worth tracking through the start of the season.
New Zealand Breakers
Projected starters
Will McDowell-White, Justinian Jessup, Tom Abercrombie, Zylan Cheatham, Mangok Mathiang
This probably won't be the lineup that finishes games - Finn Delany and Parker Jackson-Cartwright should enter the fold - but it'll likely open contests. McDowell-White is coming off the best season of his career and continues as this group's floor general, while Cheatham is projected to feature heavily on both ends as a versatile, athletic forward option. Jessup is one of the Breakers' new additions, and his sharpshooting makes him a good fit next to McDowell-White in that backcourt.
What to like
The overall talent of this group is great - they have two marquee-level players in McDowell-White and Delany - but the Breakers may have nailed their imports for the second year in a row.
Cheatham isn't just an athletic monster who'll create highlights; he's a versatile forward who can roll, shoot it, and looks like he can guard one-through-five. The partnership between him and McDowell-White should be elite as the season progresses, so his fit seems seamless. Then, there's Parker Jackson-Cartwright, who looks like he can get to whatever spot he wants on the floor. It'll be interesting to see what level he can score the ball at in the NBL, but he manages to get two feet in the paint at least 20 times a game so his ability to create advantages is so important for Mody Maor's team. Jessup rounds out the import trio, as a sharp-shooter who's looking to come in and do a bit of creation, too; he seems to be the type of player who can plug into this system and to his job to perfection. This trio brings a different set of skills to last season's imports, but project to be just as effective.
What could go wrong?
In saying all of that, this team was guided by its defence, which was heavily guided by those imports.
Whether they can get back to the level of last season on that end of the floor is yet to be seen, but not having Dererk Pardon or Jarrell Brantley to anchor the defence is a big loss. Now, Cheatham will come in and be a significant factor on that end, and Jackson-Cartwright has shown glimpses of how much of a pest he can be as a point-of-attack defender, but can they reach the heights of last season? There's reason to trust Maor's schemes and ability to get the most out of his guys, so we'll see if it's an identity they can lock into early in the season.
Perth Wildcats
Projected starters
Tai Webster, Bryce Cotton, Jordan Usher, Kristian Doolittle, Keanu Pinder
The backcourt of Cotton and Webster is the same as last season, but the starting unit has just been bolstered in a big way with defensive pieces. Usher will be a dynamic two-way presence, while Doolittle was the team's newest addition and should plug-and-play nicely at the four-spot. The Wildcats got a marquee signing this off-season in Pinder, and he'll hope to bring the MVP-level play he showed in Cairns over to Perth.
What to like
No matter who you add to the Wildcats, the team is still guided by the play of Bryce Cotton, and it looks like he's primed to continue his best-player-in-the-NBL level of basketball.
When things get stagnant offensively, he's the break-in-case-of-emergency option and is still hitting tough shot after tough shot. The jury is still out on the partnership between Cotton and the younger Webster, but the addition of Pinder gives the three-time MVP an elite big to work off, with the pair likely to open up each other's game in a big way. Usher is also looking like a dynamic wing option who can play really well off Cotton, and be a defensive presence on the other end of the floor.
This is probably the most dynamic team Cotton has ever played with, so it'll be interesting to see how that may lift his game.
What could go wrong?
John Rillie wanted the Wildcats to look more like a John Rillie team. That meant getting more dynamic, but also getting younger. The question is then: is the depth too young?
Alex Sarr may end up as a top-five pick in the upcoming NBA Draft and is extremely talented, but he's 18. Ben Henshall is an intriguing local guard and looks like a winner out there, but is 19. A trend of this season, across multiple teams, will be whether age matters, and these Wildcats will be front and centre when we get an answer to that.
South East Melbourne Phoenix
Projected starters
Gary Browne, Will Cummings, Craig Moller, Mitch Creek, Alan Williams
The dual point guard backcourt of Browne and Cummings is super talented but will be scrutinised all season, while the Phoenix doubled down on the partnership of Creek and Williams in the frontcourt. Who starts at the three may be contested throughout the season, because the likes of Reuben Te Rangi and Matt Kenyon may enter that race, but the early word is that spot is Moller's to lose.
What to like
The top-end talent on this team remains at a really high level.
Creek should be one of the favourites to win this season's MVP award, while Browne and Cummings are two options in the backcourt. The fit and chemistry aside, the talent in the starting unit really does stand out. Williams was quick to become a fan favourite - both on and off the court - so gauging what his trajectory looks like from year one to year two will be interesting to track; he's a high IQ big so one would imagine we see a leap from him. Williams will be sidelined to start the season, but the Phoenix have the benefit of Tyler Cook stepping in as a short-term injury replacement, and he looks like the most dominant big in the NBL.
What could go wrong?
There was a big issue with the Phoenix's depth and health last season, and they may linger through this one as well.
We've already seen the injury bug rear its ugly head again. Williams is out with a knee issue, Gorjok Gak and Matt Kenyon have yet to play in the preseason, so staying healthy will be the biggest key for this group. It is for every team, but the Phoenix have had particularly bad luck in recent times.
Then, there are questions about this team's depth. Those queries are there at the best of times, but injuries to different guys exacerbate those issues. The Phoenix did their best in the off-season to alleviate some of the issues, adding Kenyon, Rhys Vague, Gak, and Ben Ayre, but whether that's enough to match the benches of some of the elite teams in the NBL is up in the air.
Sydney Kings
Projected starters
Jaylen Adams, Denzel Valentine, Jaylin Galloway, D.J. Hogg, Jordan Hunter
The Kings lost one MVP in Xavier Cooks, but regained one in Jaylen Adams, who slots right in as their starting point guard. Hogg was a huge pickup for the Kings, so he'll be in the frontcourt with Hunter, who should get a lot more opportunity compared to last season. Valentine was their last import signing, and his partnership with Adams could be one to watch as this campaign progresses. Right now, Galloway looks likely to start at the three, but don't be surprised if Alex Toohey or Angus Glover get looks at that spot to open games.
What to like
There's a lot to like about the way these Kings are going to play.
It's Mahmoud Abdelfattah's first season with the two-time defending champions, and it's clear he's already brought what he does stylistically to this group, which means we'll see them play up tempo and shoot a ton of threes. The Kings will run at every opportunity and attack the rim constantly, and then make sure everyone on the floor is able and willing to knock down threes on kickouts.
The talent on this roster - particularly the import trio of Adams, Hogg, and Valentine - should thrive in that style of play, but so will the immense depth of these Kings. We'll see a lot of Jonah Bolden, Toohey, Galloway, Kouat Noi, Shaun Bruce, and co. in this really fast paced, dynamic system; if they can guard at a level close to last season, then there's reason to think they get be among the top teams once again.
What could go wrong?
This team is going through some teething, so it's important they find their footing as soon as possible.
The Kings went 0-3 in the Blitz and, while the results are largely insignificant, there were some not-so-great indicators. Of course, Adams barely played and Hogg will miss the start of the season with a shoulder injury, but there's a legitimate question about the Kings' lack of size in the frontcourt, and whether their offence was well-drilled enough in the half-court. They'll enter the season without one of their best players, and no-where near as organised as some of the other teams in the NBL; we've seen in this league that a slow start could doom your playoff chances, so locking in and finding on-court chemistry has to be the key over the first month of this campaign.
Tasmania JackJumpers
Projected starters
Jordon Crawford, Milton Doyle, Anthony Drmic, Jack McVeigh, Marcus Lee
This was the starting unit the JackJumpers have leaned on all preseason and it doesn't look like it's changing. Crawford comes in to replace Josh Magette at the point, while Doyle is back as this team's main scorer and closer. Drmic was this team's first signing in the off-season and slots in as a complementary three-point shooting piece in this group. McVeigh finished last season strong and looks primed to continue his upward trajectory, with Lee as this team's anchor and paint presence on both ends.
What to like
Scott Roth has his system and processes in place, and that's probably going to show early in the season.
This JackJumpers team is just so organised already. They know their sets, they know the counters, and there's already an understanding among one another about where guys want the ball. Crawford has done a good job setting the pace of games and making sure to get others involved early, before Doyle steps in to close things when crunch time comes around. It's the type of basketball that's played in the style of franchise Roth has led the construction of in Tasmania, and the players he recruited in the off-season.
Outside of Crawford doing a bit of freelancing here and there, there's no fluff when it comes to what these JackJumpers are about, which is why the word we'll likely use to describe this team all season is 'solid'. Just solid.
What could go wrong
This team has the depth and processes to compete every night, but do they have the talent to win it all?
A team generally needs both things to go deep into a season - and the playoffs - and, while Crawford has shown flashes and McVeigh looks primed to take a big step forward, whether Doyle has enough top-tier help around him is a big question here. Crawford is good but he's not projected to be an All-NBL level guy this season; nor is Lee, who's an elite plug-and-play big but isn't being asked to come in and set the league on fire.
The floor should be high for these JackJumpers, but the lack of top-end talent makes it feel like the ceiling is capped.