Think of all the great quarterback prospects you've seen play college football in the past 10 years. Actually, let's make it 15 years -- or even in the entire 21st century. Michael Vick. The excellent 2004 draft class that featured Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. Cam Newton. Andrew Luck, the greatest thing since Peyton Manning. Joe Burrow and his record-setting numbers. And of course, Trevor Lawrence, the promised great one. Put all those quarterbacks on a list of the best QB prospects of the past 23 years.
Now put USC quarterback Caleb Williams -- the heavy favorite to go No. 1 in the 2024 NFL draft -- at the top.
"He is one of the best football players, flat out, I've ever scouted," said an AFC scout who has worked in the league for more than a decade. "He's consistently the best player on the field."
NFL scouts have lined up to watch Williams since he first joined Oklahoma before the 2021 season and took over as the starter midway through that year. He followed coach Lincoln Riley to USC before the 2022 season and has become a must-see prospect for evaluators. At the Trojans' game against Colorado in late September, 30 NFL teams had scouts in attendance, largely to see Williams. For context, a quick poll of a half-dozen college football sports information directors suggested that number is rivaled only by the 2019 LSU-Alabama matchup, which featured 23 eventual draft picks in the 2020 class.
So what makes Williams so special? Is he a sure thing? Why are scouts throwing around the phrase "best ever" when talking about his game? We talked to more than a dozen scouts, coaches and executives about Williams' talent over the past four months, digging into his strengths, concerns (if there are any), comps and pro projection. Here's what we heard on Williams, who faces Notre Dame on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC) as USC tries to get to 7-0.
Jump to:
Strengths | Ceiling
Riley effect | Weaknesses
Comps | Top pick lock? | Best fits
Why are scouts in love with Williams' skill set?
Williams has been a legendary prospect ever since he first replaced Heisman Trophy candidate Spencer Rattler in the second quarter of the Red River Rivalry back in 2021. Down 28-7, Williams entered the game to chants of "We want Caleb!" from the Oklahoma faithful. He promptly ran 66 yards for a touchdown on his first snap of the game and helped lead Oklahoma back to a 55-48 victory. He ended up throwing 21 touchdown passes and rushing for six scores that year before transferring to USC in February 2022.
Caleb Williams calls his own number on 4th-and-1 and rushes 66 yards for an Oklahoma touchdown.
In Year 1 with the Trojans -- and his first as a full-time starter -- Williams threw for 4,537 yards (third in the FBS), 42 touchdown passes (first) and five interceptions, and he added another 10 scores on the ground. It culminated in a Heisman Trophy and immediately put him at the top of a loaded 2024 quarterback class. Through six games in the 2023 season, he has a stellar 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 1,822 passing yards, averaging 11 yards per attempt. And since the start of last season, Williams ranks fourth in the country in Total QBR at 87.3.
The 6-foot-1, 215-pound signal-caller is at his best when he's on the move. Turn on his tape and you'll see a lot of Williams lining up in the shotgun and doing his best Patrick Mahomes impression, fading and evading in the pocket. And then you'll see him uncork his powerful right arm to make impossible throws off-platform and on the move, often from unreal arm angles. His QBR outside the pocket this season is a jaw-dropping 90.4 -- actually a touch better than his QBR in the pocket (89.8) and nearly 30 points better than the FBS average (61.4).
"With Caleb, there are a number of throws [and runs] in his toolbox that just don't exist in most," said one scout for an NFL team with a potential need at quarterback. "What really sets him apart is his elusive combination of feel for when to take those calculated risks, the willingness to do so and the physical ability to actually pull it off at a consistent rate."
Watch what Williams did earlier this season against Nevada for an example of why NFL scouts are so excited about his second-reaction ability. Facing three interior defenders in his face within two seconds of the snap, Williams is forced back and to his right, drifting in the pocket and creating space between himself and the pass-rushers while keeping his eyes down the field. As he swats away would-be tacklers, he uses his speed and lower-body strength to pull deeper into the pocket and run toward the sideline.
Then, at the last second before stepping out of bounds, he uncorks a dime downfield for a 30-yard gain. And he has the poise, mobility, power, field vision and arm strength to do that routinely. Williams senses pressure, uses his legs to delay sacks and makes big plays happen. That might sometimes include running ball, too; Williams has averaged 9.5 yards per scramble this season, 11th best in the country.
Caleb Williams makes an acrobatic throw on the sideline to Dorian Singer for a 30-yard gain.
"To me, he's peak-era Aaron Rodgers," said an AFC regional scout who has spent time on Williams' tape. "The way he moves in the pocket to create passing windows and then, boom, he's thrown a no-looker across his body or a deep ball that looked impossible."
From a mechanics standpoint, his footwork, body angles and release all deserve praise. Williams' release is the fastest in college football and allows him to make those wild throws when he's running toward the sideline or facing pressure. His feet aren't often set when throwing, but that isn't as scrutinized now as it was 10 years ago. And that's especially true when the player has rare movement ability, top-tier arm strength and uncanny field vision.
Sure, Williams has forced throws at times, especially with star wide receiver Zachariah Branch out since September because of an injury, but he's still making the right decisions and limiting turnover-worthy plays. His QBR on deep balls is a ridiculous 99.6 (fifth best), and his 23 completions on throws at least 15 yards downfield are tied for ninth.
An NFC West scout said, "He's matured as a passer. He's getting rid of the ball faster and taking fewer sacks that were killing drives. I liked him last year. I love him this year."
There's also the USC offensive line, which won't win any Joe Moore Awards this season, and certainly didn't last year. Over the past two seasons, Williams has been pressured on 32.7% of his passes (above the national average) but has a sack rate of just 5.4% (below the average), which points to his awesome ability to elude.
"Obviously people know his playmaking and arm talent are special," said an AFC area scout tasked with covering the West Coast, "but things to me that stand out are his ability to change arm angles, contort his body to make throws and how flexible he is. Plus his ability to keep his eyes downfield the whole time."
OK, but is he really a generational QB prospect?
We've heard it before with quarterback prospects who were supposed to change the game and fell short. So it's worth asking if the idea of "can't miss" really exists. Is Williams worth all this hype?
"Yes," replied one NFL general manager, before adding an "LOL" for good measure. "Of course there's a chance he's not the next great one, but we're looking for the most positive traits, and he has the most of any quarterback I've seen. He's perfect for today's game."
Before the season began, we polled NFL scouts to rank the best quarterback prospects since 2019. Williams ranked first overall, right above Lawrence -- and that was before he even played his junior season of college football. Lawrence was anointed a future No. 1 overall pick while still in high school and lived up to that potential at Clemson, but Williams' explosive plays and off-script nature better fit today's NFL.
"Williams would have been drafted first overall in both 2020 [over Burrow] and 2021 [Lawrence]," another NFL general manager said. "That's no knock on either player -- and they're both really good in the league -- but Williams is a difference-maker. Joe and Trevor are distributors. Great ones. Caleb is a game-changer."
How big of a game-changer? Of the 12-plus evaluators we polled, every single one said Williams is the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning in 1998.
"The thing with Caleb is that he's a great passer -- on par with Burrow, Lawrence, etc. -- but he's also a great runner -- on par with Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen," said an NFC area scout with over 20 years of experience. "That's the thing people miss. He's the best prospect maybe ever at both components [combined]."
Is there any concern Williams is getting a Lincoln Riley boost?
Riley has plenty of experience coaching top quarterbacks, including Murray, Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts. Murray and Mayfield would go on to No. 1 overall selections in their respective drafts, but neither has exactly set the league on fire to date. (Hurts, who transferred from Alabama to play one season under Riley at Oklahoma, was an MVP candidate last season after being a second-rounder back in 2020.) Riley's scheme tends to open things up for his quarterback with beautiful spacing and timing concepts, which can pump stats but also add questions to evaluations.
No defender has been within 5 yards of Williams' target on 37.3% of his attempts this season, sixth highest in the FBS. The USC offense is designed to confuse cornerbacks and safeties with misdirection and overlapping route trees, forcing defensive mistakes, and Williams has capitalized. Do NFL evaluators worry it might be artificially elevating his stock?
"You have to take that into consideration with evaluating any quarterback," a general manager said over the summer. "What does the scheme ask him to do, what does the scheme cover up in terms of his flaws? ... But with Williams, it's his traits and his production that gets you excited. So I'm not worried about it."
The scheme and coaching matter, but in context. If Williams were talent deficient in terms of arm strength, size or mobility, Riley's ability to coach him up would be more of a talking point. But he has elite arm talent, moves extremely well and has an NFL-ready build. We can't fault Williams for his receivers getting open. He still has to get the ball out on time and to the right place. And he does that very well, throwing just six interceptions and completing 67.9% of his passes over 20 games at USC.
"People see on TV that his receivers are wide open, but they don't see that's because Caleb is holding safeties with his eyes or his legs, and allowing those receivers to get so open," a Pac-12 assistant coach said. "The scheme is good, but his execution of it is the best."
Where can he still improve?
As you might have guessed, there aren't many concerns here, but scouts have noted that Williams hasn't had to make quick decisions against college defenses. He has averaged 3.1 seconds from snap to throw this season (sixth longest in the FBS), and his 3.14 seconds in 2022 was the second longest behind Anthony Richardson (3.17 seconds), who ended up going No. 4 overall in April's draft.
"He really hasn't had to play on schedule," an AFC scouting executive said. "That's not to say he can't ... but I've not seen him do it. He'll have to learn to play faster in the pros." Another scout from the NFC echoed, "He's never been in rhythm."
Yes, Williams has to learn to take the high-percentage play sometimes, but every scout we spoke to alsopraised his mobility, his playmaking mentality and the threat of his legs as a designed runner. It's a double-edged sword: Teams want the quarterback to be smart with the ball and limit turnovers, but they also don't want to limit the passer's playmaking ability.
An AFC road scout put it this way: "He still has to grow in taking what the defense gives him, but when he extends plays, you see how special of a talent he is, and it doesn't matter what defenders do sometimes."
There's also the size question. Williams is listed at 6-foot-1, but scouts think he's probably a little smaller, estimating that he will come in a little over 6-foot when he measures for teams at the combine. None of the scouts I talked to, however, are concerned about it at all, dismissing it quickly.
"He's bigger than Bryce Young or Kyler Murray, and they went first," an AFC team's GM said.
Plus, Williams has a thicker frame than Young or Murray and bulk in his lower body, which will allow him to hold up against NFL defenders. Williams' measurement at the combine won't be covered like Young's or Murray's, two quarterbacks who were under 5-foot-11 and between 190 and 210 pounds. The height question in general has quieted in recent years thanks to Drew Brees and Russell Wilson winning Super Bowls. In fact, three quarterbacks have been picked in the top five over the past five drafts who were under 6-foot-2 (Young, Murray and Tua Tagovailoa), and two of them were the No. 1 pick.
Who is his best comp?
The most popular comp I've heard is Rodgers, and I see it. Are there times Williams will frustrate you with his love of scrambling and waiting for the big play? Absolutely. But that was Rodgers in his prime, too. Williams doesn't have Rodgers' arm strength, but the same quick release and ability to see the entire field are there. And Rodgers' love of taking a deep shot? Textbook Williams.
"When everyone said Mahomes, I said young Aaron Rodgers," an AFC area scout said. "Just Google 2008-2012 Rodgers highlights. It's awesome. And it looks just like Williams."
To the scout's point, we've heard some Mahomes comps. Scouts were wary of comparing Williams to the consensus top quarterback in the NFL, but many did point to similarities in their games. "He moves like Mahomes, and his field vision reminds me of Mahomes, but his arm strength is a notch below," an NFC area scout said. "But he's a better runner than Pat was in college."
One AFC scout who covers the Pac-12 mentioned Russell Wilson: "I know the playstyle is kind of Mahomes, but he's a younger Russell in a way -- how he moves, even the thicker build. I see it."
Want an off-the-wall one? A scout for an AFC team suggested a player from another sport. "It's not a football comparison, but he's the Kyrie Irving of football. Kyrie has an ability to contort his body and make rare plays in the paint and around big bodies, just like CW can make throws around and over defenders that not many others can."
Is there any chance Williams doesn't go No. 1 overall?
"I'd say 70-75% he's the top pick," said an area scout who covers USC, before adding, "Don't forget about Drake Maye."
North Carolina's Maye is definitely in the mix, coming off his best game this season against Syracuse. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound quarterback has received comparisons to Lawrence and Justin Herbert and probably has the best chance to overtake Williams -- but there's still a gap between the signal-callers. If Williams somehow isn't No. 1, he'd basically be a lock at No. 2.
"Fastest pick in NFL draft history if he doesn't go first," an NFL general manager said.
The conversation regarding Williams' looming decision of whether to enter the 2024 draft is interesting, too. His father, Carl, said it's "no lock" that his son declares for the draft. Williams has more leverage than any prospect since Luck, thanks to NIL paydays now available in college football. He could expect to make seven figures at USC in his senior season while waiting for a better situation at No. 1 overall if he and his family don't like the way the draft order looks in January.
"If [Williams] comes out [and enters the draft] -- and that's a real if -- he's the top guy right now," said a scout for an NFC team that could be in the QB market. "But you know how much things can change in the pre-draft process."
Which NFL teams could be in play for Williams -- and where is his best fit?
The Carolina Panthers are the last winless team in the NFL but traded their first-rounder in March to the Chicago Bears to be able to select Young in the 2023 draft. Chicago is projected to pick at Nos. 1 and 6, and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is giving the Bears a 39.4% chance to land the top selection between their two first-rounders. That would set up a tough decision on the future of Justin Fields, who is playing for his job this season. When asked what they would do in that spot, two area scouts not affiliated with the Bears said they would trade Fields and draft Williams.
"I'm not even a proponent of tanking," an AFC East scout said, "but I'd be trying to lose as many games as possible to land this dude -- and I'd trade Fields the day the league year opened for a fourth-round pick and say sorry it didn't work out."
Other teams in the mix to end up at No. 1 include the Denver Broncos (16.3%), Arizona Cardinals (16.2%), New York Giants (13.4%), New England Patriots (5.9%), Washington Commanders (3.1%), Las Vegas Raiders (1.9%), Green Bay Packers (1.0%) and Minnesota Vikings (0.9%), and at least a few of them have iffy quarterback situations:
It's easy to love the idea of Williams landing with Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and former teammate Jordan Addison in Minnesota, with Kirk Cousins playing on the final year of his deal.
Denver is invested in Wilson, who has played better this season -- but he's also turning 35. The defensive woes are pressing, and if Wilson were designated as a post-June 1 cut next spring and released before the third day of the league year, the Broncos would be eating $35.4 million in dead money in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025. A trade would hit Denver with $68 million in dead money, either all in 2024 or spread out over two seasons, depending on whether the deal happened before June 1.
Arizona (which also has two first-rounders) was a popular preseason mock draft destination for Williams, and many guessed the Cards would effectively tank for Williams to replace Murray. With a new general manager, new coach and Murray's inconsistent play, it's still a possibility, even though the team has outplayed expectations in the early going. Trading Murray -- who is still not playing while he recovers from a torn ACL in his left knee -- would cost $46.2 million in dead money on the 2024 cap. Designating him as a post-June 1 release would trigger cap hits of $48.3 million in 2024 and $33.2 million in 2025, per ESPN's Dan Graziano. It's worth noting that in both the Denver and Arizona cases that an incoming rookie-deal QB would soften the dead-money blow.
The best true fit for Williams would depend on movement in the coaching ranks, but his unique style as a creator and improviser makes him a fit anywhere -- as long as the team isn't looking for a pocket passer. The Patriots would seem like a bad fit on paper, but offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien has had success with Deshaun Watson in a similar stylistic approach.
"I'm telling you, unless you have a quarterback that you know is the guy, the first pick will be Williams," an NFC scouting director said. "You don't pass him up. This is a once-in-a-generation prospect."