The field grows thinner in Week 2 of the NFL playoffs, as the wild-card weekend winners advance to meet the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each conference. Super Bowl LIV stands just two wins away.
The pair of improbable 6-seed upsets to open the postseason illustrates how anything can happen -- especially if teams can carry out their strategy. Let's dive into all four divisional-round games and see how each team moves on to the conference title games.
Here are a couple of game plan keys -- one offensive and one defensive -- that can create matchup edges and a path to the conference championships for all eight teams still in play.
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AFC: TEN | BAL | HOU | KC
NFC: MIN | SF | SEA | GB
The Minnesota Vikings beat the 49ers if ...
1. They get running back Dalvin Cook volume in zone and gap schemes
Cook played with some serious juice in the Vikings' wild-card win over the Saints, rushing for 98 yards and two touchdowns on a season-high 28 carries. The volume was there. So was the play speed. And why would that change heading into Saturday's matchup with the 49ers? Attack the San Francisco four-man fronts out of 12 personnel (1RB, 2TE) and 21 personnel (2RB, 1TE) on both zone and gap schemes.That should be at the top of the call sheet for offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski.
But don't forget about using 11 personnel here (1RB, 1TE) to get the 49ers into their nickel fronts. That's when Stefanski can use pre-snap movement -- jet motion and split-flow zone schemes -- to influence second-level defenders while creating natural cutback lanes for Cook. Want an example? Just go back to Cook's first touchdown run of the game in last weekend's win over New Orleans, shown below in an NFL Next Gen Stats animation. Find the daylight and go.
2. They take away intermediate throws in split-safety coverages
We know that Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer leans on split-safety coverage in his zone-based scheme. And we also know that Niners coach Kyle Shanahan will use Hi-Lo concepts -- the two-level reads are a staple with coaches who run West Coast systems -- to manipulate second-level defenders on in-breaking routes off play-action.
That's why I'm looking at the Vikings linebackers as key players on Saturday in terms of their ability to close the intermediate windows. In quarters coverage, Cover 2 and Cover 6, linebackers Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Eric Wilson have to take those quick correction steps versus play-action and gain depth as curl or hook defenders. The athletic traits are there, and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can at times make some questionable throws into the teeth of zone coverage by failing to identify the underneath zone defenders.
