Trying to project how drivers and teams will perform on a week-to-week basis means trying to balance a number of factors, such as driver track history, team track history and recent all track/related-track performances by both teams and drivers.
Then we get into race weekend, and I try to factor in practice speeds and qualifying performance. Then from there, factor in how drivers' starting positions historically affect performance at assorted tracks.
Hey, I never said I didn't like a challenge.
Let's put it into perspective at this weekend's locale, Pocono. It's a very individual racetrack in that it's the only one on the circuit that is triangular. But in terms of makeup, its long straightaways and tight, flat corners make it reminiscent of Indianapolis.
Last week at Indy, Kyle Busch flat dominated, going nearly wire-to-wire for the win. Gibbs has been the dominant team this season, winning nine of the 20 races itself, and picking up another win via the Gibbs-supported Furniture Row Racing.
Furniture Row and Gibbs are the two highest-scoring teams this season in terms of DraftKings' points per race. And five of the top-six single-race scoring totals have come from those two teams (two from Busch, two from Carl Edwards and one from Martin Truex Jr.).
So Kyle Busch dominated at Indianapolis, but his recent history says he's not the driver to take at Pocono. In the last nine races there, four times he hasn't put up positive fantasy points, without a top-five finish in the bunch. So that's one vote pro, and one vote con.
On the flip side, you have Hendrick Motorsports. No team has won more at this track than Hendrick, including five of the last eight (but none of the last three).
Take a look, though, at the team's average points per race over the last four seasons: 44.6 in 2013, 43.9 in 2014, 35.1 in 2015 and 32.7 in 2016. The team just snapped its longest top-10 drought since 2000. I'm making sure to take 2016 Hendrick Motorsports, not the 2013 version.
But the 2013 version included a Pocono race last month in which rookie Chase Elliott led the most laps.
The info is all on the table, but I'll do my best to sort it all out now that qualifying is in the books.
Here are my picks and fades for Sunday's race. Remember, it's not just finishing position that matters; start/finish differential, fastest laps run and laps led all come into play.