In this week's edition of ESPN's AFL Power Rankings, we're calling it - just five teams can win the flag! In fact, the top four teams all hold their positions from last week, while in the chasing pack, it's tightening up.
Note: Throughout the year, ESPN will rank all 18 teams, from top to bottom, taking into account which teams are playing the best footy, injuries, each team's recent opponents, and which teams are looking most like flag contenders.
Previous rankings (prior to): Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 | Round 8 | Round 9 | Round 10 | Round 11 | Round 12 | POST BYE | Round 15 | Round 16 | Round 17 | Round 18 | Round 19 | Round 20
1. Geelong
2021 record: 15-4
Previous ranking: 1
Is it the Cats' premiership to lose this year? They're the most experienced group in the hunt, will probably lock up the double chance, and will get Jeremy Cameron back shortly. It's a 'yes' as far as we're concerned, and if they can't get it done, they will have just about wasted one of the most dominant periods in AFL history.
This week's opponent: GWS (GMHBA Stadium)
2. Western Bulldogs
2021 record: 15-4
Previous ranking: 3
If the Cats are flag favourites then the Bulldogs aren't far behind. Chock full of talent, Luke Beveridge's side also has quality to come back (hello, Adam Treloar) in the next month or so leading into finals. This week against the Bombers will provide a welcome test ahead of September action, but the Dogs really should come out on top.
This week's opponent: Essendon (Marvel Stadium)
3. Melbourne
2021 record: 14-4-1
Previous ranking: 3
It's hard to know what to take out of the Dees' win over the Suns given how poor Gold Coast's performance really was. The most annoying part for Dees fans is they can't really even celebrate the percentage boost given they're a half game ahead of the team below them, and half a game below those above them!
This week's opponent: West Coast (Optus Stadium)
4. Sydney
2021 record: 13-6
Previous ranking: 4
This side just keeps impressing. They've gone from top eight smokey, to likely finalist, to now being a top four contender! Can they win the flag? What a fairytale it would be given where they finished last year, and given the last seven or so weeks both Sydney sides have had to endure.
This week's opponent: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
5. Port Adelaide
2021 record: 14-5
Previous ranking: 6
The Power are up into fifth on the Power Rankings after the Lions once again failed to fire. Are they a premiership contender? They're probably the fifth best team in it, with a bit of a gap opening up between the Power and Lions in fifth and sixth respectively.
This week's opponent: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
6. Brisbane
2021 record: 12-7
Previous ranking: 5
Have the Lions fallen out of flag contention? They might have - they look lethargic and lacking up forward, and aside from the strong second half against the Suns in Round 19, haven't looked likely in a few weeks. Of course, if they make finals, anything can happen, but there are a handful of better teams in this race.
This week's opponent: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
7. Fremantle
2021 record: 9-10
Previous ranking: 12
Bouncing around in that band of teams between 7 and 12 in the rankings is Freo after a strong win over the Tigers at home. Will it last? Who knows - the injuries to Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters harm their chances of finishing strongly enough to make finals, but they play the second of three straight games in Perth (with this week's game against a disappointing Brisbane).
This week's opponent: Brisbane (Optus Stadium)
8. West Coast
2021 record: 10-9
Previous ranking: 7
What can you say about this team? They're still more likely than not to play finals, which is almost embarrassing given how inconsistent and bad this side has been in the past few months. In fact, in this week's ESPN Footy Podcast, we discovered that in terms of percentage, they'd be the second worst team to make finals since 2004.
This week's opponent: Melbourne (Optus Stadium)
9. Essendon
2021 record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 10
Another 100+ point performance that ends in defeat - what more can this side do?! There's something about playing the Swans, too - another close loss! The good thing is their percentage is solid, so if they can sneak a couple of wins in the last few rounds, they could still take that last spot in the eight.
This week's opponent: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
10. Carlton
2021 record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 13
After a few weeks in 13th spot on the Rankings, the Blues have moved on up. How are they still in the finals race?! It was a strong win over the Saints, and they play the Suns at home this week, so it could come down to the last round for this side who might have a new coach by Round 1 next year.
This week's opponent: Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium)
11. St Kilda
2021 record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 9
It just hasn't been the Saints' year, has it? A semifinal berth last year has morphed into a disappointing 2021 when many thought they'd be able to take the next step and knock on the door of the top four. It doesn't get easier from here for St Kilda, who face the Swans this week.
This week's opponent: Sydney (Marvel Stadium)
12. Richmond
2021 record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 8
It was bound to happen eventually right? After Dimma last year declared the 2020 flag would be the most well-earned in history, his side has played like it ... not that there's anything wrong with it. It's tough to sustain a run at the top, and it looks like finally the chasing pack has caught up. Less likely than others, but still can make finals.
This week's opponent: North Melbourne (MCG)
13. GWS
2021 record: 8-10-1
Previous ranking: 11
Jake Michaels summed it up on the ESPN Footy Podcast this week ... they're too inconsistent given the talent they have available, and Leon Cameron should almost be thankful to still be in a job. But please, direct any feedback to Jake and not me!
This week's opponent: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
14. Collingwood
2021 record: 6-13
Previous ranking: 16
Just what Robert Harvey needed! There's nothing better for a club under fire than a win, and a win which transfers the media heat to the team you've beaten! The Eagles were horrendous, but let's not take anything away from the effort of some of the younger Magpies in particular. There's something to work with there...
This week's opponent: Hawthorn (MCG)
15. Gold Coast Suns
2021 record: 6-13
Previous ranking: 14
Another miserable performance from the Suns, who haven't looked like an AFL-standard team in the last six quarters of footy. It's disappointing more than anything; it's fair to say most neutrals wouldn't mind seeing a little success from this side which hasn't even played finals yet in its existence.
This week's opponent: Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
16. Adelaide
2021 record: 6-13
Previous ranking: 15
A loss on the field, drama with Tex off it - fair to say it hasn't been a good week for the Crows heading into this week's Showdown.
This week's opponent: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
17. Hawthorn
2021 record: 5-13-1
Previous ranking: 18
An unexpected win? Given the bizarre week the club had off the track, it was improbable they would pull it off against the Lions, but as always with Clarko, you just never know what he has up his sleeve. Is it enough for the Hawks to avoid the wooden spoon? Probably.
This week's opponent: Collingwood (MCG)
18. North Melbourne
2021 record: 4-14-1
Previous ranking: 17
Aaand back to the bottom for the Roos after the Hawks shocked the Lions to jump into 17th spot. Again, it's been a pretty good season from North considering the start to the year they had and the way David Noble has been able to bring the group together.
This week's opponent: Richmond (MCG)