Who are the favourites for the AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club after the first month of the season in his April edition of tiers.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2024 season.
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1. GWS
ESPN's Jarryd Barca declared the Giants as the best list in the league ahead of the season, but not even he could have predicted such a dominant start to the year. At 3-0, Adam Kingsley has his side humming and looking like the best in the land. They crushed the reigning premier, have the new Brownlow Medal favourite in Tom Green leading the midfield and the league's best defender in Sam Taylor organising everything behind the ball. The scariest part? Dynamic skipper Toby Greene hasn't even gotten out of first gear.
Undermanned and overperforming
2. CARLTON
For the first time in decades -- no, seriously -- the Blues feel like the best side in Victoria. They've blown past the struggling Magpies and would start favourite if they played the Demons tomorrow. There's a bit of 2023 Collingwood to this team in that it just consistently finds ways to win games of football. Harry McKay appears rejuvenated and over his mental demons, Patrick Cripps is back to his Brownlow-winning best, and we haven't even seen the player of the 2023 finals, Sam Walsh. Great signs for Blues as they embark on another deep finals run.
3. SYDNEY
Even with a recent slip up against the Tigers, I'm already convinced the 2024 version of the Swans is better than the side that reached the Grand Final in 2022. The Swans are 3-1 through four games and already boast wins over two teams many had earmarked for the top four, in Melbourne and Collingwood. Scoring has improved, the defence is stingier, and they've managed all of this without a single appearance from Luke Parker, Callum Mills or off-season recruit Taylor Adams. Very encouraging signs.
4. MELBOURNE
Aside from their season-opener -- though a 22-point loss on the road to the Swans is hardly a disgrace -- the Demons have been in fine form to start the season. Wins over the Bulldogs, Hawks and, most recently, Port in Adelaide and without key back and perhaps the club's most important player, Steven May, the Dees have shown that this club isn't going anywhere and will again be a major player come season's end. If it's all clicking, they look as good as any side going around.
Great record, no chance of a flag
5. GEELONG
The Cats were tricky to evaluate heading into the year and while they've started with a perfect 3-0 record, they haven't really done enough to convince us they can be a genuine flag threat. The midfield is light-on and inexperienced, particularly with skipper Patrick Dangerfield out of the team, and while the defence receives constant plaudits, it really does feel a Tom Stewart injury away from being a quite suspect back six. With games to come against the Bulldogs, Lions, Blues, and Dees, I'm tipping we're about to learn a lot about the Cats.
6. FREMANTLE
Another club with a perfect record through three games, but another side you wouldn't be too concerned facing in finals if they were to begin tomorrow. The Dockers beat the Lions in Opening Round, but knowing what we know about Brisbane, was it really that impressive a win? The other two have come against North Melbourne and Adelaide. Enough said, really. Not buying into them yet until they do it consistently and against the best sides, starting with Carlton at Gather Round.
Still cannot be trusted
7. PORT ADELAIDE
For the most part, Port is a pretty honest side. They show up week after week, rarely get blown out, and usually -- usually -- win the games they're supposed to win. With that said, the forward line is still a very real concern. Too often have they kicked themselves out of games with poor accuracy and wastefulness in front of goal. Jeremy Finlayson has been a major culprit this season, but he's not alone and he, along with Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and Willie Rioli must become more consistent and learn to take advantage when their side has the momentum.
8. COLLINGWOOD
If you want to get carried away with one win against the seemingly hapless Lions, be my guest. The Magpies still have a plethora of issues -- namely ball movement and the inability to defend -- and the win over Brisbane at the Gabba did little to change that. We need to see more, and for a sustained period, before we can even consider declaring them back in any sort of premiership mix. The only reason they even rank this high is because of the undeniable premiership credentials.
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Two big wins over the Suns and Eagles and one big loss to the Demons. Notice a trend with the Bulldogs? This side feels like one that will end the year somewhere near the middle of the ladder. They are good enough to pick up a dozen or so wins against the poorer teams, but just aren't on the same level as those actually vying for a flag. The reason you cannot get carried away with the wins is because a disappointing loss always feels right around the corner.
10. ST KILDA
The Saints lost a tight one to the Cats, beat the reining premier, and then had some sort of collapse against the Bombers -- though they were without spearhead Max King. Like the Bulldogs, and many teams in this tier, their best is good enough to worry the top sides, but their worst can be diabolical. With that said, they are well coached and have enough talent to be a chance in most games they play. Just don't be surprised if this season is a rollercoaster ride.
11. ESSENDON
It's been a relatively solid start to the year for the Bombers, who have two wins and a tight-ish loss to Sydney. Again, no disgrace in that. But do you really think they've turned the corner? I didn't think so. Even when the Bombers are up and about, you just can't erase last year's catastrophic collapse from the memory bank, and there's a feeling that type of drop off is only a matter of time, particularly when they hit the inevitable mid-season lean patch of form.
12. GOLD COAST
The first hour of Gold Coast's season suggested they were going to be a totally rejuvenated side under Damien Hardwick. In Opening Round, the Suns were on track for a 15-goal win before allowing the Tigers to make a real game of it. They then hang on for dear life against the Crows and were belted off the park by the Bulldogs. There's no doubt they are heading in the right direction -- at least, we think -- but they still feel like a side that can let us down at any given moment.
Cliff incoming...
13. BRISBANE
The 'cliff incoming' level was used in the pre-season edition of tiers and featured the tough-to-evaluate Cats. The tier remains a month into the season and it's Brisbane who now finds itself in the unwanted position. It's been an abysmal start to the year for last year's runner-up, falling to 0-3 and now dealing with the fallout from what's now known to have been a messy offseason. All of a sudden, Chris Fagan is under the pump, and if things don't improve soon, you can expect some radical changes before season's end.
14. RICHMOND
Footy is a fascinating game. The Tigers went into Sunday afternoon's clash with the red-hot Swans as no-hopers, yet they emerged with the four points and a new lease on the season. At least so it seems. They reality is we've seen far more ordinary footy from this side to open the year -- and to close last year -- and over the course of the season, there's maybe only three or four teams we know are going to be worse. Injuries to Tom Lynch and Noah Balta, which came late in the win over the Swans, are extremely concerning.
It's going to be a really long year
15. ADELAIDE
In terms of pre-season expectations, the Crows have been the biggest disappointment of the year, thus far. Winless after three games, and with a date against the Demons up next, a season which began with finals hopes could soon be all but over. Adelaide's got issues all over the park, most worryingly a horror connection between its midfielders and forwards, which has restricted them to just 55 points per game. The Crows can't win away from home and now aren't winning at home. Worrying signs, indeed.
16. HAWTHORN
There were plenty who felt the Hawks could be the biggest riser of 2024, but based on what we've seen thus far, that's highly unlikely. Sam Mitchell's side came up short against the Bombers in Round 1, and have since been outclassed by Melbourne and Geelong, though they did show some promising signs on Easter Monday. A lack of forward line firepower is a worry, as is their chances when the midfield struggles to get on top. Like last year, they'll take down a big fish or two, but they're bound for another bottom four finish.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Alastair Clarkson was supposed to be the saviour for this club, but the Kangaroos aren't really any better -- at least right this moment -- than they were a year or two back. With that said, there are some green shoots, and a number of youngsters, most notably Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Colby McKercher, and, to a lesser extent, the 24-year-old Luke Davies-Uniacke, are showing real promise. but will they win more than five games this year? Nope.
18. WEST COAST
Different year, same Eagles. No surprises here, at least there really shouldn't be. West Coast are 0-3 and haven't looked like winning thus far, losing by 50 points to Port Adelaide, 65 points to GWS, and, most recently, 73 points to the Bulldogs. It's going to be another tough year and the priority simply must be ensuring last year's No. 1 draft pick Harley Reid gets through unscathed and continues to showcase his talents in the midfield.