Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Indianapolis Colts, who finished the season 8-8.
Super Bowl barometer: The Colts have lots of work to do.
Assessing the foundation: The Colts appeared to have the foundation set to be in position to be a contender on a regular basis for years to come when they reached the AFC Championship Game in 2014. It turns out that was about the last positive thing that has happened for them. Not only have they missed the playoffs in each of the past two seasons while playing in the AFC South, but the foundation they thought they had with former general manager Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano is on shaky ground. Grigson missed many times in the draft and on the free-agent market. None of the players from their 2013 draft class are still on the roster. Owner Jim Irsay showed his lack of faith in Pagano when he tried to purse Jon Gruden to be his coach despite Pagano being under contract for three more years. Pagano's defensive reputation has eluded him throughout most of his time in Indianapolis. The Colts have finished 20th or worse in defense in four of his five seasons. Pagano is also a combined 0-8 in his career with the Colts against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots, the teams that played in this season's AFC Championship Game. The Colts have lost by an average of at least 24 points to each of those teams. Irsay fired Grigson on Jan. 21 and he has only confirmed Pagano to be coach for the 2017 season. The watch will be on for Pagano, especially if the Colts start 0-2 for the fourth straight season.
Judging the quarterback: Quarterback Andrew Luck is expected to miss the team's offseason workouts after recently undergoing surgery on his right shoulder. Irsay tweeted that Luck will be ready for the start of the 2017 season. The Colts' roster is full of flaws, but quarterback is not one of them. Luck threw for 4,240 yards, 31 touchdowns and completed a career-high 63.5 percent of his passes last season. Luck will be only 28 years old and in just the second year of his six-year contract next season. That means he's still in the prime of his career. Luck will have to continue to carry the franchise until the front office does a better job of putting talent around the $140 million quarterback. Luck, who is headed into his sixth season, proved early in his career that he was capable of covering up the team's roster problems when he led them to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons. He has led the Colts to 17 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime since entering the NFL in 2012. Things changed last season when the Colts missed the playoffs while having Luck start 15 games. A significant factor for Luck is his ability to stay healthy. He has missed 10 games over the past two seasons. He was also listed on the team's injury report every week this season and was often limited in practice at least one day a week.
Realistic ways the Colts can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
Find some pass-rushers. The Colts finished 27th against the pass and were tied for 19th in sacks last season. Erik Walden, who led the Colts with 11 sacks, is a free agent. Their other top pass-rusher, Robert Mathis, retired after ending the season with five sacks.
Offensive line develops. The Colts started three rookies on the offensive line at different points during the season. There were signs of promise up front, but the group still gave up 41 sacks and 128 quarterback hits, which was the second most in the NFL. It's hard for Luck to get the ball to his skill position players if he doesn't have time in the pocket.
Pagano uses Irsay's lack of faith as motivation. Pagano's going to run out of chances at some point. He managed to turn Irsay's one-year contract extension offer in the spring of 2015 into a new four-year contract in January 2016. Irsay attempted to get Gruden to coach the Colts after a second consecutive 8-8 season. If Pagano does return, this will likely be his final opportunity to prove that he's the right person to be Irsay's coach.