JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the teams expected to pursue free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins. It will be costly, though -- likely in the neighborhood of $27 million to $30 million annually.
That’s roughly $10 million more than what the Jaguars would have to pay Blake Bortles in 2018. And it’s likely more than what Bortles would command in a contract extension if he were to play well enough this season to earn one. Bortles is due to make $19.053 million in 2018 on the fifth-year option. The wrist surgery he had earlier this month is not expected to keep him from passing a physical.
The question the Jaguars' brass must answer, then, is if Cousins is indeed worth the price. The numbers don’t exactly show that’s the case.
Cousins and Bortles have each played in 62 games and Cousins does have a slight edge in victories (31 to 26) in the regular season. He also is significantly better in completion percentage (64.5 percent to 59.1 percent), passing yards (16,026 to 14,928) and passer rating (93.7 to 80.8).
Both players are similar in touchdown passes (Cousins has 99, Bortles has 90), though Bortles has thrown nine more interceptions.
However, there’s one area where Bortles has clearly outperformed Cousins: in the red zone.
Since 2015, Bortles has thrown 61 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in the red zone. Cousins has thrown 52 touchdown passes and five interceptions on 11 more attempts. Bortles, who has completed more than 60 percent of his passes in a season just once since he was drafted in 2014, also has a marginally better completion percentage than Cousins (55.2 percent to 54.8 percent) in the red zone.
Bortles was among the league’s top quarterbacks in the red zone in 2017, throwing 18 touchdown passes and no interceptions. He was one of only six quarterbacks to throw at least 15 touchdown passes without an interception. Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Case Keenum, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff were the others.
The Jaguars ranked second to Philadelphia in red zone efficiency in 2017, a big reason why they went 10-6 and won their first division title since 1999. They also scored touchdowns on all eight trips into the red zone in the postseason, including three touchdown passes.
Red zone production is not the only way to evaluate a quarterback. Bortles has committed 79 turnovers in his four seasons, his mechanics are far from perfect, and his completion percentage is well below ideal. His ceiling may very well be what he did in 2017: 60.2 percent completions, 21 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions.
Still, that was good enough -- especially with the Jaguars’ defense, which led the league in pass defense and finished second in scoring, turnovers and sacks -- to help the Jaguars reach the AFC Championship Game. That was in Bortles’ first full season under offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. The strides he made after the worst season of his career in 2016 were significant. If he can make similar progress in 2018, then he’s potentially a top-12 quarterback.
Cousins isn’t Brady or Aaron Rodgers. He’s probably not Stafford or Wentz, either. Still, the consensus is that he is an upgrade over Bortles, despite Bortles’ red zone advantage. The Jaguars have to decide if he’s a significant enough upgrade over what Bortles can potentially become to warrant spending nearly $100 million over the next five or six years.