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Facing Tua Tagovailoa, Patriots look to continue dominance vs. rookie QBs

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), which will mark their first game against rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. That's good news for coach Bill Belichick's team based on recent history.

The Patriots have won their past nine games against starting rookie quarterbacks, with the most recent result -- a 45-0 drubbing of Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers on Dec. 6 -- putting an exclamation mark on the impressive statistic.

"None of that really means anything this week," Belichick said in his weekly interview on sports radio WEEI. "Tua is a very talented player. He's shown that throughout his career. I haven't been out there for any snaps against any of these guys, so we'll see how our players compete against their players and team on Sunday."

The Patriots (6-7), with long-shot playoff odds (3.6% chance per ESPN's Football Power Index), have an opportunity to play a spoiler type of role against the Dolphins (8-5), similar to what Miami did in the season finale last year at New England when its victory cost Belichick's team a chance for a first-round playoff bye.

Geno Smith, then playing for the New York Jets, was the last rookie quarterback to beat the Belichick-led Patriots -- a 30-27 decision in overtime on Oct. 20, 2013.

Since that point, the crop of rookies who have lost to the Patriots in their first start against them includes Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders), Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans), Cody Kessler (Cleveland Browns), Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams), Deshaun Watson (Houston Texans), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Sam Darnold (Jets), Daniel Jones (New York Giants) and Herbert.

The Patriots under Belichick (2000-present) have been an underdog only twice to a rookie quarterback making his first career start against them: Herbert from two weeks ago, and Vince Young (Titans) in 2006. The Patriots won both games by a combined score of 85-23.

With the Dolphins favored by 2.5 points, Tagovailoa hopes to break not just the nine-game rookie losing streak, but that one as well.

Just as the Patriots used disguise to stymie Herbert, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins can expect something similar. The key, according to Dolphins quarterbacks coach Robby Brown, is to approach it like any other game.

"As an organization [under coach Brian Flores], we always start with [opponents' defensive] personnel. Then you go to our personnel, then into what is the defense trying to do to you? You try to build that case in the beginning and then go from there. [The Patriots] do a good job of different sets, different disguises, whatever it may be. They've been very good for many years. That does produce a good challenge," Brown said.

Tagovailoa is 114-of-184 for 1,214 yards, with nine touchdowns and one interception this season since taking over as a starter in Week 8 (he missed one game after that with a thumb injury on his left throwing hand). He has added 24 rushes for 61 yards (2.5 avg.) and one touchdown.

In addition to being left-handed, Tagovailoa stands out from other rookie quarterbacks the Patriots have faced.

"He's a pretty experienced quarterback in terms of the passing game and what they did at Alabama," Belichick said, referencing Tagovailoa’s college career under coach Nick Saban, one of Belichick's closest friends.

"He gets rid of the ball very quickly, doesn't hold it much, sees coverage well, has taken good care of the ball, hasn't thrown the ball to the defense. He understands the pressure, the timing of routes, gets the ball out quickly, and has enough quickness in the pocket to make it difficult for the pass rush to get to him. He can run a little bit, but I would say he's more of a quicker guy in the pocket that's elusive and really wants to throw more than he wants to run."

Defenders spoke with admiration of Tagovailoa, and how he has returned from a serious hip injury.

"Tua's a great competitor. I watched him in college," said Patriots fourth-year defensive lineman Deatrich Wise Jr., who noted facing a left-handed signal-caller could affect which hand he raises in an attempt to bat down passes.

Meanwhile, first-year linebacker Terez Hall has the firsthand experience of having faced Tagovailoa as a player at Missouri.

"He's a mobile guy, but not as mobile as Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray. Not like that," he said. "He's a different guy, and he can play. So it'll be fun playing against him."