METAIRIE, La. -- Although the first big wave of free-agent spending has passed in the NFL, the New Orleans Saints' biggest financial decision of the offseason is still looming.
Running back Alvin Kamara is heading into the final year of his rookie contract at the bargain rate of $2.133 million. So it seems inevitable that he will push for a long-term contract extension this summer.
Receiver Michael Thomas was in the same boat last year before he signed a record-breaking deal worth nearly $20 million per year. However, the math was a bit more predictable with Thomas’ deal. Kamara’s value is much harder to pinpoint because he plays such a unique role for the Saints -- and because the entire RB market throughout the NFL is so difficult to pinpoint.
Here is a look at all the factors that should come into play:
Any chance the Saints trade Kamara?
This idea can’t be ruled out because we have seen the Saints trade dynamic playmakers like Brandin Cooks, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles in recent years. But so far, there have been no reports of any trade talks involving Kamara. And in all of those other cases, the Saints made their trades before the start of free agency to clear out salary-cap space and acquire draft picks.
How much is Kamara worth?
This is the multi-million dollar question, and it’s extremely hard to answer.
In one sense, you could make the argument Kamara is special enough to keep raising the RB contract bar –- which was set by Ezekiel Elliott last year when he signed a six-year extension with the Dallas Cowboys worth $15 million per year, with $50 million guaranteed.
Le’Veon Bell is currently the NFL’s second highest-paid running back at $13.125 million per year after signing a four-year deal with the New York Jets last year that included $35 million guaranteed.
However, those aren’t perfect comps, because Kamara isn’t quite the same type of “every-down back” (more on that below). And you could also point to all of the buyers’ remorse throughout the NFL over recent mega-deals with running backs like Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Devonta Freeman and Jerick McKinnon.
This past month of free agency was not very kind to running backs.
Gurley and Freeman were released, while Johnson got traded. Gurley then signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons that is worth between $5.5 and $6 million (though he’ll also make another $5.05 million that the Rams owed him before the trade).
Freeman, meanwhile, is still looking for work, while Melvin Gordon had to settle for a two-year, $16 million deal with the Denver Broncos and Jordan Howard a two-year, $9.75 million deal with the Miami Dolphins.
The Tennessee Titans used the franchise tag on free-agent running back Derrick Henry, which is worth $10.278 million for one year. And the Arizona Cardinals used the transition tag on Kenyan Drake at $8.483 million.
Austin Ekeler has a similar type of runner/receiver role as Kamara. But he’s not a perfect comp either because he was a restricted free agent when he signed a four-year, $24.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Chargers.
We’ll have a much better feel for the current state of the RB market over the next year, because Henry, Drake, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Marlon Mack and James Conner are all eligible for extensions.
At some point, somebody from that group is going to have to go first, though.
What is Kamara’s value to the Saints?
Kamara’s production took a dip in 2019 while he battled ankle and knee injuries that sidelined him for two games in the middle of the season. And perhaps that will factor into negotiations because he gained “only” 1,330 yards from scrimmage and scored six touchdowns last year after averaging 1,573 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons.
It is also worth noting that Kamara typically plays less than 70% of the Saints’ snaps on offense, as opposed to guys like McCaffrey, Bell and Elliot – who play 90 percent or more of their team’s snaps.
But the Saints still view Kamara as a special player, and they value how much he brings to their passing game with exactly 81 catches in each of his first three seasons. Plus, Sean Payton has made it clear he likes Kamara’s “pitch count” around 60-70% of the offense's snaps to keep him fresh and healthy.
Perhaps an argument could be made that the Saints could get by with veteran Latavius Murray and a mid-round draft pick (especially if they got their hands on someone like LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire). Murray excelled during those two weeks Kamara was sidelined last year, with at least 150 yards from scrimmage and two TDs in each game.
But that argument would shortchange how much of a game-changer Kamara can be when healthy.
Can the Saints afford this?
Of course they’ll find a way if they want to. The Saints have never shied away from pushing hefty salary-cap costs into future years to keep their core players.
As of this weekend, they had only $4.28 million in salary-cap space according to the NFLPA’s figures. And they’ll need to save at least $2 million in space for their draft picks.
But Kamara is already counting $2.376 million against their cap, and the Saints could keep his 2020 cap figure under $4 million if they sign him to a long-term extension. So they shouldn’t have too much trouble fitting that in.
It is still possible the Saints will look for other ways to create more breathing room under the cap, too. One possibility they may consider is trading a veteran guard such as Larry Warford or Nick Easton because they have so much invested at that position after re-signing Andrus Peat last month.
Does the new CBA prevent Kamara from holding out?
Not exactly, but it makes it even less likely that Kamara will hold out from the start of training camp (if there is a traditional training camp).
Saints head coach Sean Payton describes his reaction to Tom Brady joining the NFC South after signing with the Buccaneers.
Under the previous CBA, a player would lose an accrued season if he failed to report to training camp within 30 days of the start of the regular season (Thomas signed his new deal with the Saints before that deadline hit last year). Under the new CBA, however, a player will lose an accrued season if he fails to show up on his mandatory reporting date at the start of camp.
That means even if Kamara were to end his holdout and play a full season, he would become a restricted free agent in 2021 instead of an unrestricted free agent.
The other major change to the CBA regarding holdouts doesn’t affect Kamara because he is still on his rookie contract. Under the new CBA, daily fines are now mandatory for veteran players who hold out from training camp if they are on their second contracts or more.
Kamara would be subject to daily fines of $40,000 if he skipped training camp, but the team would have the ability to rescind those fines if they work out an extension.