Will the Dallas Mavericks sweep the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night? This question is on the minds of many NBA fans, especially after watching the Boston Celtics dismantle the Indiana Pacers in four games to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals.
Maybe the pressure of facing elimination could drive the series back to a Game 5 in Minnesota. However, winning the series after going down 0-3 is, as all fans know, very unlikely. The Mavericks' success in clutch time has been the difference in this series. Desperate to avoid getting swept, Minnesota is likely to come out strong offensively on Tuesday night.
Without further ado, let's get into my best bets for Game 4.
Naz Reid over 16.5 points and rebounds (-130). With Karl-Anthony Towns struggling, Reid should see increased playing time Tuesday night, possibly exceeding 30 minutes on the court. Reid has surpassed this line in an impressive 94% of the 18 games this season where he has played 29 minutes or more. With Dereck Lively II ruled out for the Mavericks, the 6-foot-10 Reid should have even more rebounding opportunities.
Anthony Edwards over 39.5 points, rebounds and assists (-115). Edwards certainly has a promising career ahead of him, but let's face the harsh reality of the situation this young superstar is facing. NBA teams that trail 3-0 in a series have never come back to win, and we're talking about a sample size of nearly 160. Although Edwards has only surpassed this line once in the series, he commands a high usage rate, averaging 19.6 field goal attempts, 12.8 rebound chances and 11.8 potential assists in 40.2 minutes per game over his past five. Edwards is shooting a dreadful 37% from the floor over that span, but I expect him to be aggressive and efficient Tuesday night.
Luka Doncic over 48.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-110) and over 3.5 3-pointers made (Even). Doncic has surpassed this line in only one of the three games in this series. However, his overall postseason performance has been impressive -- 28.3 points, 9.0 assists, 9.3 rebounds, 3.1 triples,and 1.7 steals per game over 15 postseason games, playing an average of 42.0 minutes.
The Timberwolves have thrown everything at Doncic. They have doubled-teamed him, trapped him, switched defensive assignments on screens and off-ball movement, and even employed a drop-coverage approach where the defending player guarding the screener in a pick-and-roll scenario stays back near the basket to prevent drives to the rim. Despite those efforts, the Timberwolves have not found success.
Doncic and the Mavericks would rather not travel to Minnesota for Game 5, especially with the Celtics already resting. Anticipate yet another high-scoring affair, as every game in this series has exceeded the total.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
West finals - Game 4
8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Line: Mavericks (-1.5) Total: 210.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+100), Mavericks (-120)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 4.4, straight up 64%, 208.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles)
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD - Knee); Maxi Kleber, (GTD - Shoulder); Dereck Lively II, (OUT - Neck); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (OUT - Ankle); Greg Brown III, (OUT - Personal)