Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 29, 2023, 04:45 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

By Todd Zola

Tuesday presents a full slate with 15 games under the lights. Action begins with three contests in the 6:40 PM ET block, featuring an interleague affair for supremacy of the Sunshine State. Sandy Alcantara will take the hill in South beach where the Miami Marlins will host Aaron Civale and the Tampa Bay Rays. It should be a low-scoring affair as Alcantara is pitching better over the second half and Civale (45.0%) is helping the Rays remain within shouting distance of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. Civale isn't usually dominant, but he's coming off a start against the Colorado Rockies where he fanned nine with no walks over five innings. The Marlins lineup isn't as futile as the Rockies, but they've had trouble generating runs over the last month, so Civale checks in as a streaming candidate.

Civale's former teammate Gavin Williams (14.0%) is the evening's top ranked streamer. If the Cleveland Guardians have any chance of catching the Minnesota Twins, Williams needs to deliver in Tuesday's matchup in Target Field. However, after beginning August with three strong outings, Williams has struggled over his last two. Even so, he's enjoying a solid rookie season with 68 punch outs in 64 frames and the Twins 27.7% strikeout rate facing right-handers is the highest in the league.
Other than Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, no one on the current New York Mets roster has clubbed more than three homers with a lefty on the hill. This bodes well for Andrew Heaney (32.1%) when the Texas Rangers continue a series in Citi Field. Overall, Heaney's skills are down this season, but he can still be effective when keeping the ball in the yard. The Mets offense is below average facing left-handers, landing Heaney in streaming territory.
On a team with several recent highly ranked starting pitching prospects failing to reach their potential, Cole Ragans has emerged as a diamond in the rough for the Kansas City Royals. In fact, with a strong effort on Tuesday, Ragans will be in contention for August pitcher of the month. So far, the 25-year-old southpaw has recorded a 2.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this month, with 44 strikeouts in 29 2/3 stanzas. He should be able to continue his roll with a home data against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup with the eighth lowest wOBA facing lefties.
Tarik Skubal (18.2%) facing the New York Yankees is the classic example of "something has to give." The Detroit Tigers left-hander has yielded just one homer in 44 innings this season. Meanwhile, amid all their struggles, the Yankees still sport the highest team home run rate versus left-handed pitching. This could render Skubal too much of a risk in traditional fantasy, but he's in play for DFS action.
Maikel Garcia (6.2%) has taken over as the Royals leadoff batter and has 19 steals in 24 attempts. He doesn't have the platoon edge facing Luis Ortiz on Tuesday, but the Pirates starter has struggled this season and the club has surrendered the seventh most steals in the league.
Kerry Carpenter's rostership is on the rise, but at 36.2%, it's still lower than warranted. He'll enjoy the platoon edge on the Yankees pitchers on Tuesday since their opener and primary pitcher are both righties.
With Brandon Marsh back for the Philadelphia Phillies, Johan Rojas (.6%) only plays when a lefty is toeing the rubber. Rojas should get the nod on Tuesday with Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Angels visit Citizens Bank Park. Rojas posted a solid 116 wRC+ while filling in for Marsh when Marsh missed about four weeks earlier in the second half.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.5	Sandy Alcantara	R	TB	97.3%	-120	7.5	57%	6.6	2.4	6.5
12.5	Corbin Burnes	R	@CHC	99.8%	115	7	55%	5.9	2.4	6.5
12.4	George Kirby	R	OAK	95.9%	-305	8	62%	5.7	2.2	5.9
11.5	Gavin Williams	R	@MIN	15.4%	143	7.5	52%	5.6	2.3	6.0
11.2	Jose Quintana	L	TEX	5.6%	118	8.5	55%	5.6	2.0	5.1
10.9	Clayton Kershaw	L	ARI	98.2%	-190	8	54%	5.2	1.9	5.1
10.7	Merrill Kelly	R	@LAD	91.1%	158	8	46%	5.8	2.5	5.7
10.4	Michael Lorenzen	R	LAA	40.9%	-160	9.5	59%	5.7	2.6	5.3
10.3	Andrew Heaney	L	@NYM	33.4%	-140	8.5	45%	5.0	1.8	5.3
10.3	Pablo Lopez	R	CLE	97.6%	-170	7.5	48%	5.7	2.7	5.7
10.0	Jose Berrios	R	WSH	86.5%	-195	8	60%	5.8	2.8	5.2
9.8	Aaron Civale	R	@MIA	50.1%	100	7.5	43%	5.2	2.0	4.7
9.7	Seth Lugo	R	@STL	28.0%	-155	8.5	68%	5.4	2.5	5.1
9.5	Ken Waldichuk	L	@SEA	1.1%	240	8	38%	5.1	2.3	5.5
9.2	Alex Cobb	R	CIN	52.7%	-165	8	50%	5.3	2.5	5.4
9.1	Tarik Skubal	L	NYY	20.0%	-120	8	50%	5.2	2.6	5.3
9.0	Justin Steele	L	MIL	91.9%	-135	7	45%	5.3	2.5	5.4
8.5	Brandon Williamson	L	@SF	9.8%	140	8	50%	5.1	2.3	5.1
8.4	Luis L. Ortiz	R	@KC	0.3%	130	8.5	55%	5.1	2.4	4.2
8.1	Dean Kremer	R	CWS	27.7%	-235	9	55%	5.7	3.1	4.7
7.7	Cole Ragans	L	PIT	25.1%	-155	8.5	45%	5.0	2.6	4.9
7.6	Tyler Anderson	L	@PHI	26.1%	135	9.5	41%	5.2	2.8	4.9
7.0	Jesse Scholtens	R	@BAL	1.2%	192	9	45%	5.3	3.1	4.5
6.9	J.P. France	R	@BOS	26.1%	105	10.5	54%	5.5	3.3	5.0
6.7	MacKenzie Gore	L	@TOR	13.9%	162	8	40%	5.1	2.9	5.0
6.4	Charlie Morton	R	@COL	92.2%	-267	12	58%	5.3	4.0	6.2
6.2	Brayan Bello	R	HOU	25.1%	-125	10.5	46%	5.3	3.3	5.0
4.2	Michael King	R	@DET	5.1%	100	8	50%	2.7	1.4	2.6
3.4	Zack Thompson	L	SD	1.2%	130	8.5	32%	4.5	3.2	4.2
1.9	Peter Lambert	R	ATL	0.5%	215	12	42%	4.3	3.8	3.9

Bullpen update for Tuesday

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	8/28	P3	Rest	Strk
Camilo Doval	SF	89.5%	6	22	0	2

By Todd Zola

Camilo Doval notched a save for the second day in a row, giving him 35 which lands him as the league leader in the department. He only needed six pitches to retire the Cincinnati Reds in order in last night's San Francisco's 4-1 victory. Doval has appeared on three consecutive days previously this season, so he can't be ruled out for tonight's contest, especially with just 22 pitches compiled over the prior two days.
This is the last week of the regular season in ESPN head-to-head leagues. Looking ahead, there are only four games on Thursday, so getting a jump on filling roster spots could be the key to securing a playoff berth. Washington Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan (27.8% rostered) leads MLB in saves over the last month with 10. The Nationals have two more road games facing the Toronto Blue Jays before hosting the Miami Marlins on Thursday. Finnegan warrants an immediate pickup as the Nationals have the seventh best record in MLB since the All-Star break.
The Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees play a four-game series to begin the week. The Yankees took the first game on Monday by a 4-1 score. Relievers from both bullpens should be busy over the next few days in this matchup of sub .500 teams. Remarkably, the Yankees bullpen has not recorded a save or hold over the past 15 days. Even so, Clay Holmes (42.8%) and Tommy Kahnle (1.6%) merit consideration for the next three days.
On the other side, Alex Lange (16.6%) and Jason Foley (2.6%) have been sharing closing duties as each have two saves over the past 15 days. Lange has a pair of holds in this span while Foley also registered a hold over this stretch.

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF -- 49%) at Peter Lambert
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 23%) vs. Charlie Morton
Orlando Arcia (ATL, 2B -- 31%) at Lambert
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 12%) vs. Morton
Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B -- 32%) vs. Brandon Williamson
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 35%) vs. Morton
Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 7%) vs. Gavin Williams
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 40%) vs. J.P. France
Eddie Rosario (ATL, LF -- 18%) at Lambert
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 11%) vs. Morton

Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Willy Adames (MIL, SS -- 64%) at Justin Steele
William Contreras (MIL, C -- 69%) at Steele
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 88%) at Alex Cobb
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 59%) vs. Corbin Burnes
Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 86%) vs. Burnes
Lane Thomas (WSH, LF -- 67%) at Jose Berrios
Christian Yelich (MIL, LF -- 96%) at Steele
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 72%) vs. Andrew Heaney
Daulton Varsho (TOR, C -- 79%) vs. MacKenzie Gore
Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF -- 99%) at Clayton Kershaw

The BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

Prop of the Day

Brayan Bello 17.5 pitching outs (-143/-102)

PREDICTION

THE BAT sees Bello putting up 16.0 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 37.6% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $23.99.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

The weather report forecasts the fourth-best pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the second strongest of the day for mound aces.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

The fourth-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Houston Astros.
The Astros have been the ninth-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to perform better the rest of the season.
Fenway Park grades out as the No. 2 park in baseball for batting average, per THE BAT.
Bello's 94.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.4-mph decline from last season's 95.7-mph mark.