Don't you love it when NFL general managers play their own game of fantasy football?
The New York Jets traded a conditional draft pick (reported to be a second- to fourth-round selection) to acquire Percy Harvin in one heck of a curious move. After spending five games running a weird set of reverses, end runs and screens for Harvin while steadfastly refusing to send him downfield -- incredibly, he has had a mere four targets that traveled 10-plus yards in the air this season -- the Seattle Seahawks are essentially giving him away.
The speculation about what's really going on can now begin. Is this about Harvin's supposedly hard-to-manage personality? Is it about the Seahawks needing cap room (Harvin is owed more than $10 million per season each of the next four years) to sign Russell Wilson and other young players coming up for contract renewal? Is it about wanting to get a closer look at other players? Or is it about all three? The Seahawks have a great personnel track record over the past few seasons, so it would be unwise to go whole-hog and slam this move. But it's pretty rare for teams with Super Bowl repeat aspirations to ditch a mega-talented veteran whose kickoff return this past February clinched a championship.
Let's take a look at the fantasy impact of this move on several moving parts:
Percy Harvin: Even with Geno Smith throwing it to him, Harvin's results can't be worse than they've been for the past month or so. No other NFL team would have cloistered Harvin as the Seahawks have done. Marty Mornhinweg isn't a particularly good playcaller, but he's going to throw it deeper to Percy. To me, that means Harvin's week-to-week upside increases. Of course, we're talking about Geno Smith here, so Harvin's week-to-week downside is still nasty. In general, this is an uptick for Harvin, but I'm not ready to vault him back into top-15 consideration just yet.
Eric Decker: It's hard to spin this as positive for Decker. Yes, I suppose if the Jets offense were ready to springboard into hyper-drive, you could argue the rising tide would lift all boats. But again: It's Geno, and it's Mornhinweg. Too many mistakes and too many weird play calls. Decker's prime allure was the potential for high volume, and Harvin's arrival might preempt that. Decker is still ownable in all leagues, but I'd say he's at least somewhat less startable.
Geno Smith: Yeah, no. Smith played well Thursday night, but face it: That was mostly the result of New York's running game going nuts. Geno's high moments are good enough to occasionally make his weapons shine, but he's yet to prove he won't have down moments that ruin his fantasy value. The more weapons any quarterback gets, the more potential for improvement, but Smith would need to show way more consistency over multiple weeks to become trustworthy.
Russell Wilson: I don't see a big change for Wilson. He already wasn't taking many shots; Harvin's dismissal wouldn't seem to make it more likely Seattle's becomes an aggressive pass attack. A full one-third of Wilson's fantasy points this year have come from running, and that's what we'll hope for moving forward.
Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin: The Seahawks might actually be showing an intriguing amount of trust in Kearse, a Super-Deep Sleeper of mine from the past summer. Unlike Harvin, Kearse actually has been targeted down the field, with 11 of his 19 targets traveling 10-plus air yards. Kearse isn't one of those size/speed freak outside receivers and, in fact, probably fits the mold of a flanker "possession" guy athletically, so I hesitate to foretell a bust-out as a result of this move. But I'll be watching. Ideally Baldwin is a slot player, though with Harvin around, he has rarely actually run out of the slot this year. Expect him to bounce inside far more often and potentially look a bit more attractive in PPR leagues. But again, if Harvin couldn't get fantasy traction in this offense, boy, it's hard to see either of these guys becoming consistent threats. Their best case is probably up-and-down, tease-worthy production.
Paul Richardson: He's an intriguing guy now. Richardson reminded scouts of DeSean Jackson this spring, and though he's gotten exactly one target this year, this could be an indication the Seahawks would like to take a longer look at him. The lightning-fast Richardson should probably have already been owned in dynasty leagues, but now those in 14- or 16-team redraft leagues can use a bench spot on his upside.