In the NFL world, it's often said defense wins championships.
In fantasy football, that's far from the case. In fact, there are few positions at which you can waste more resources than by paying up for a defense.
No matter how many times we say it in this space, the majority of fantasy managers don't seem to absorb the advice, as a quick glance at this year's average draft position on ESPN shows that two defenses have ADPs within the first nine rounds -- and four going in the first 100 picks -- which would mark the fourth consecutive season a defense/special teams (D/ST) was picked that early. To reaffirm the lesson, here are three basic facts from 2023 that summarize why defenses are neither predictable nor do they deliver lofty enough fantasy point totals to warrant selection before the final two rounds.
The two D/STs that tied for the scoring lead each totaled 172 fantasy points. To put that into perspective, 99 skill position players, plus one kicker (Brandon Aubrey), scored more.
The difference in production between the No. 1 and No. 11 defenses was 45 fantasy points. That was less than the difference between the Nos. 1 and 3 quarterbacks, and it was less than half the difference between the Nos. 1 and 2 running backs.
The first four D/STs selected on average, the San Francisco 49ers (72nd overall), Pittsburgh Steelers (92nd), Buffalo Bills (97th) and New Orleans Saints (105th), finished the season as the position's eighth-, 11th-, fifth- and 10th-best scoring units, respectively. Meanwhile, the top three scoring defenses of 2023 (Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns) had average ADPs of 8.3 at the position and 138.0 overall.
Now, that's all well and good, but if we're to effectively ignore the position at the draft table, then how should we proceed?
Simple: We piece together our team D/ST by picking the best matchups week to week, rather than the most talented units on paper, beginning with our draft-day selection that mostly looks at Week 1 opponent. Employing this strategy in 2023 -- assuming you can accurately target poor offenses, which, to be fair, is generally easier to do than pinpointing the best defenses -- would've been much more successful than using a top-100 pick on a single unit.
Had you started the defense that faced the New York Jets every week, you'd have squeezed 202 fantasy points out of the position, 30 more than either the league-leading Cowboys or Ravens scored.
In fact, had you started the defense that faced exclusively the Carolina Panthers (199 points), New York Giants (194), New England Patriots (191) or Washington Commanders (182), you'd have still squeezed more points out of the position than had you gone with merely the Cowboys or Ravens.
This isn't to say you should take a lackadaisical approach to team D/ST in fantasy! Far from it, as the streaming defense strategy demands much more as far as the homework involved. The results -- greater chances at a league championship -- are well worth the extra effort.
But as that "homework" word can be a loathsome one, this D/ST road map can help save you a lot of that research time. Listed below are both preferred draft-day picks, due to the teams' soft September schedules, as well as recommended streaming choices for each of the season's first four weeks.
Why only four weeks, rather than the season in its entirety? Remember, this game changes quickly, and often dramatically, making it a fool's errand to project out an entire season this far in advance. With so many factors impacting the performance of a team's defense, including the head coach, defensive coordinator, defensive scheme, defensive personnel, its schedule and the injuries and other transactions that impact the roster, we tend to have a much better read on a defense's true talent level once four weeks of the new season are in the books.
For now, consider targeting or avoiding these opposing offenses as part of your general D/ST approach:
Top 10 offenses to exploit
New York Giants
Denver Broncos
New England Patriots
Washington Commanders
Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders
Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers
Carolina Panthers
Top 10 offenses to avoid
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
New York Jets
Detroit Lions
Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans
Miami Dolphins
The D/ST road map will get a refresh after every four completed weeks during the regular season (so, following Weeks 4, 8 and 12) to help you navigate through the fantasy season. For now, let's get to the preseason edition:
Schedule-driven draft-day target: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are currently 11th among D/STs in ADP following a miserable 2023, in which they scored five or fewer fantasy points in 11 of 17 games. The additions of defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and safeties Vonn Bell and Geno Stone should help the team's cause, however, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo did steer this defense to respectable finishes in 2021 and 2022.
Though the Bengals have a tough Week 2 assignment on the road against the Chiefs, they otherwise have a dream September schedule. They begin with a home game against a rebuilding Patriots offense, projected to be one of the league's worst, then face the Commanders and Panthers in Weeks 3 and 4.
Other draft thoughts
Let's talk a little about the Jets; They'd be the D/ST to get, if not for a hideous, opening-week road assignment against the NFC-favorite 49ers. From there, the Jets face bottom-10 projected offenses from Weeks 2-5, as well as in seven of their nine games from Weeks 2-10. That Week 1 matchup is one to avoid, but if you can finagle sparing a roster spot for a one-week plug-in, the Jets might be one of the wisest targets for a matchups-oriented D/ST strategy.
Avoid the Chiefs: They have one of the roughest September schedules -- beginning with the Ravens and Bengals -- and averaged a solid-yet-unspectacular 7.8 fantasy points against top-10 scoring teams in 2023. As is, that Week 1 Ravens-Chiefs matchup already carries one of the week's highest over/unders (47).
D/ST week-by-week roadmap
Week 1
Among likely to be overlooked defenses on draft day, the Seattle Seahawks (DEN), Bengals (NE) and Chicago Bears (TEN) are the best-projected units that face favorable matchups. If your league drafts D/STs especially heavy -- I have one local league where almost half the managers select a backup -- bear in mind the Vikings (@NYG) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WAS) will both face bottom-five projected offenses in the opening week.
Avoid: Jets (@SF), Ravens (@KC), 49ers (NYJ) and Chiefs (BAL), which is saying something, considering the latter three are currently being selected third, second and ninth at the position in ESPN leagues.
Week 2
One week's action can tell us something about the extreme outliers in terms of best/worst offenses and defenses. We're projecting here, so keep in mind that some of these picks can dramatically change based on what goes down in Week 1. Using our preseason lens, the Steelers (@DEN), Seahawks (@NE) and Los Angeles Rams (@ARI) stand out among prospective streamers. Depending on how things play out during the opening week, the Commanders (NYG) and Giants (@WAS), going head-to-head, could also come into play.
Avoid: Bengals (@KC), Chiefs (CIN), Saints (@DAL). Note that the Saints will be a popular draft-day target for those using the streaming strategy, due to their opening-week home matchup against the Panthers.
Week 3
Putting aside clear draft-day targets -- the Browns (NYG) and Jets (NE) draw two of the week's most favorable matchups -- the Bengals (WAS), Lions (@ARI) and Green Bay Packers (@TEN) stand out as the strongest streaming candidates. Checking on how Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense has fared through two weeks will be critical to evaluating the Lions' prospects, however. For those digging deep, the Buccaneers (DEN) have an excellent matchup.
Avoid: Cowboys (BAL), Ravens (@DAL), Saints (PHI).
Week 4
It's a week where the top-drafted defenses draw the best matchups, meaning that again, the early returns could unearth some sleepers four weeks in. The Cowboys (@NYG), Jets (DEN) and 49ers (NE) draw the preseason's best projected Week 4 matchups, and the Browns (@LV) are up there as well, but the Dolphins (TEN), Packers (MIN) and Bengals (@CAR) stand out from a streaming perspective. Monitoring how the Vikings look under either Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy at quarterback -- that decision alone has a big bearing -- will be critical to determining whether they're still an offense to exploit for opposing D/STs.
Avoid: Bills (@BAL).