The one-win Cincinnati Bengals have locked up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. The order after Cincinnati isn't as clear, with the projections by the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) giving the Washington Redskins the best chance to pick No. 2.
The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, are now projected to have the Nos. 5, 19 and 25 picks, according to our 1-32 draft order projections. The Dolphins traded cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers in September to add another first-round pick, and they already had an extra first-rounder after trading Laremy Tunsil to the Texans.
The Jacksonville Jaguars own the Los Angeles Rams' first-round pick after the Jalen Ramsey trade. That pick is projected to be No. 20.
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams and game locations. The order is based on each team's average draft position, which is determined by the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
Check out the full projection below (updated Tuesday, after every Week 16 game):
1. Cincinnati Bengals (1-14)
Average draft position: 1.0
2. Washington Redskins (3-12)
Average draft position: 2.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
3. Detroit Lions (3-11-1)
Average draft position: 3.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
4. New York Giants (4-11)
Average draft position: 4.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
5. Miami Dolphins (4-11)
Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 98.5%
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)
Average draft position: 6.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
7. Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100%
8. Carolina Panthers (5-10)
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 90.6%
9. Arizona Cardinals (5-9-1)
Average draft position: 8.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.9%
10. New York Jets (6-9)
Average draft position: 9.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 80.7%
11. Denver Broncos (6-9)
Average draft position: 12.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 20.7%
12. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
Average draft position: 13.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.2%
13. Cleveland Browns (6-9)
Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14%
14. Oakland Raiders (7-8)
Average draft position: 14.3
15. Oakland Raiders (from 7-8 CHI)
Average draft position: 15.0
16. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Average draft position: 15.6
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
Average draft position: 15.7
18. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
Average draft position: 18.4
19. Miami Dolphins (from 8-7 PIT)
Average draft position: 19.8
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from 8-7 LAR)
Average draft position: 20.0
21. Tennessee Titans (8-7)
Average draft position: 20.6
22. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)
Average draft position: 21.9
23. Buffalo Bills (10-5)
Average draft position: 23.4
24. Minnesota Vikings (10-5)
Average draft position: 25.1
25. Miami Dolphins (from 10-5 HOU)
Average draft position: 25.4
26. Seattle Seahawks (11-4)
Average draft position: 25.7
27. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)
Average draft position: 27.7
28. Green Bay Packers (12-3)
Average draft position: 28.2
29. San Francisco 49ers (12-3)
Average draft position: 28.2
30. New England Patriots (12-3)
Average draft position: 29.3
31. New Orleans Saints (12-3)
Average draft position: 29.2
32. Baltimore Ravens (13-2)
Average draft position: 30.5