The Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears have the best chance to land the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft, according to the updated projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). If the Texans win and the Bears lose on Sunday, the Bears would earn the No. 1 pick. If both the Texans and the Bears lose, the Texans will claim the top pick. The 2-13-1 Texans have an 51.6% chance to get the top selection, and the 3-13 Bears have a 48.4% chance.
There have already been six trades involving first-round picks for April's draft, with the Texans, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles in line to have two selections in Round 1. The Dolphins were stripped of their pick because of violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game, which means there are only 31 picks in the first round for 2023.
Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and the playoffs. NFC/AFC playoff seeding is not taken into account right now; this is just average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full 1-31 projection for the 2023 NFL draft (updated Jan. 3):
1. Houston Texans (2-13-1)
Average draft position: 1.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 51.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Greater than 99.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
2. Chicago Bears (3-13)
Average draft position: 2.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 48.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Greater than 99.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
3. Seattle Seahawks (via 4-12 DEN)
Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Greater than 99.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Average draft position: 3.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 97.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
5. Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1)
Average draft position: 4.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 84%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
6. Detroit Lions (via 5-11 LAR)
Average draft position: 6.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 18.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)
Average draft position: 7.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
8. Atlanta Falcons (6-10)
Average draft position: 7.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
9. Carolina Panthers (6-10)
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Greater than 99.9%
10. Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Average draft position: 11.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 54%
11. Philadelphia Eagles (via 7-9 NO)
Average draft position: 12.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38%
12. Houston Texans (via 7-9 CLE)
Average draft position: 12.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38%
13. New York Jets (7-9)
Average draft position: 13
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%
14. Washington Commanders (7-8-1)
Average draft position: 13.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.1%
15. New England Patriots (8-8)
Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 0.1%
16. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Average draft position: 16.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
Average draft position: 17.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 0.1%
18. Detroit Lions (8-8)
Average draft position: 17.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 0.1%
19. Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 0.1%
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
Average draft position: 21.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Less than 0.1%
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
Average draft position: 21.5
22. New York Giants (9-6-1)
Average draft position: 22.8
23. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Average draft position: 23.5
24. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
Average draft position: 23.5
25. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
Average draft position: 24.7
26. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
Average draft position: 25.5
27. Denver Broncos (via MIA/12-4 SF)
Average draft position: 26.4
28. Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Average draft position: 27.2
29. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Average draft position: 28.2
30. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
Average draft position: 28.4
31. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Average draft position: 28.5