In recent years, NFL analysts and fans have grown accustomed to the second-year quarterback breakout. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson won MVP awards in their second seasons, while Carson Wentz was on pace to take home one of his own before suffering a torn left ACL in 2017. Fellow draftees Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff all took their own major strides forward in their sophomore campaigns.
With five quarterbacks coming off the board in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft, I suspect I wasn't the only one expecting a breakout or two to join that group this season. Through eight weeks, though, the class of 2021 has been a major disappointment.
Trey Lance went down with a season-ending right ankle injury in Week 2, and sixth-rounder Sam Ehlinger just made his first NFL start in a narrow Colts loss to the Commanders, but the other second-year candidates have struggled. In Week 9, leaving Ehlinger aside, the five other second-year passers posted a combined QBR of just 21.4. Their only win came when one of those five (Mac Jones) won against another (Zach Wilson).
We are about to hit the halfway point of the rookie-contract quarterback cycle for these passers. Organizations have to make meaningful decisions about each of them after their third seasons. For first-rounders, that's when their fifth-year option commitments come up and teams have to decide whether they want to fully guarantee a fifth season with a significant raise. Quarterbacks drafted later enter the final year of their contracts after Year 3, which means it's time for them to get new deals, as Hurts likely will this offseason.
With half of their evaluation periods in the books, can you say for sure that any of these quarterbacks are the long-term solutions for their teams? Do any of them feel like they've taken that leap? Are any of them even playing better than they did as rookies? Inspired by what I saw in Week 8, let's evaluate those five passers and see whether there are reasons to be optimistic (or pessimistic) about what we've seen from them so far.
Jump to a sophomore QB:
Fields | Jones
Lawrence | Mills | Wilson
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick in 2021 draft: No. 1
Nominally, if you asked people which of these passers was the closest to looking like a franchise quarterback, Lawrence would be the most common answer. It's fair to write off last season as an Urban Meyer-riddled fever dream. And at his best, Lawrence looks like the total package. Nobody else in this class has his combination of arm strength, physical tools and pocket presence.
And yet, when you account for the lofty expectations surrounding Lawrence as arguably the best college quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012, I'm not sure he is any closer to what he was supposed to be than the other guys on this list. The strides he was supposed to take with a better coach and a revamped receiving corps haven't come this season, and it has cost the Jaguars games.
Jacksonville has lost five straight after a 2-1 start. Lawrence looked solid to begin the season, but he has not been on the right side of the ledger for the Jaguars during this slide. His minus-9.3% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) over that stretch is the second worst in the league, behind only Baker Mayfield's. His accuracy isn't where it should be.
Drops have played a meaningful role, since Jacksonville's receivers have dropped nearly 7% of his passes during the losing streak, but they don't explain the whole story. More than 21% of Lawrence's passes over the past five games have been off-target, the third-worst mark in football. ESPN's adjusted completion percentage metric accounts for drops and the depth of each pass; the only starters with a less impressive adjusted completion percentage over the past five weeks are Marcus Mariota and Justin Fields.
It would be easy to imagine a scenario in which Lawrence was making mistakes under pressure, or the offense wasn't giving him the solutions he wants, and those things do happen at times. In reality, though, these problems are popping up in comfortable situations. When he has been unpressured over the past five games, he ranks 27th in QBR, 32nd in CPOE and 31st in off-target rate.