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NRL Round 1 Tipping the sure thing, the coin toss and most likely roughie games

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Viva Las Fullbacks: NRL stars set to light up Las Vegas (1:04)

These are just some of the plays fans can expect to see when rugby league hits the strip for the start of the 2024 NRL season. (1:04)

The 2024 NRL season is set to be tight, with plenty of player movement during the offseason as clubs hope to turn their fortunes around or maintain their dominance. Tipping eight winners each weekend is going to be near impossible, so each week we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.


The sure thing

New Zealand Warriors vs. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks, Go Media Stadium, Auckland, Friday March 8, 6pm (AEDT)

The opening round is the toughest in which to make a sure thing prediction, with pre-season form fraught with danger and plenty of cobwebs hindering all teams. Whilst the Sharks are a formidable opponent, they travel to Auckland to take on a Warriors side which is determined to prove that last season's form was not an aberration.

At home, in front of their fervent crowd, and with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck back and firing, the Warriors really need to make this game their own. They will look to continue the winning mix of enterprise and control that coach Andrew Webster has somehow brought to the club. They have some of the most exciting players in the competition and when they combine their magic with high-completion football, they are very difficult to beat. Tip the Warriors for the opening round, as it is the pick that I am most confident about.

Round 1 sure thing: Warriors


The toss of the coin

Sydney Roosters vs. Brisbane Broncos, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Sunday March 3, 3:30pm (AEDT)

One of the toughest games of the round will be played out in Las Vegas on the first Sunday of the 2024 season. The Roosters have strengthened their roster with a couple of astute purchases, while the Broncos have lost two key parts of the 2023 side that almost won the premiership. Will the changes bring these sides even closer in ability and which of the two will handle the glitz and glamour of Vegas and the vigours of journeying halfway around the world for this showcase clash? Which coach can best focus his players on the job at hand?

My coin has landed and it has a Rooster face up. I think the smaller dimensions of the field in Las Vegas will give the Roosters an advantage, I think Brandon Smith owes the club a much-improved season and Trent Robinson is not the sort of coach who will treat this trip as any sort of holiday. James Tedesco will be keen to lead his Roosters to victory over last season's grand finalists and get the club's season off to a good start.

Other real toss of the coin contenders in a very tough opening round include; Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs, Storm vs. Panthers and Dolphins vs. Cowboys.

Toss of the coin game winner: Roosters


The roughie

Parramatta Eels vs. Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs, CommBank Stadium, Saturday March 9, 5:30pm (AEDT)

The Bulldogs begin a new season with a roster which has been completely cleaned out over the past three years. They have named newest signing Stephen Crichton their captain as they look to turn things around and make a charge towards the finals. After watching their pre-season performances, it is still not exactly clear which players form their most effective line-up.

The more settled and accomplished Eels really should win this game comfortably at home, which is why only fools are parting with their money in support of the team from Belmore. Can coach Cameron Ciraldo and his Bulldogs catch the Eels napping on a steamy Saturday afternoon? Will their new improved defence stifle Mitchell Moses and the Eels backline? It might be a bit early in the tipping season to be taking risks, but if you want to outsmart your rivals, this could be the game in which to take the roughie.

Round 1 roughie: Bulldogs

Click here for a full guide to Round 1 of the 2024 NRL season