The Brownlow Medal is one of the most highly-anticipated nights on the AFL calendar, and we've got the best bets, exotic markets, and value tips for your betting slips.
ESPN's Brownlow predictor: every game from every round analysed
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Note: Pointsbet odds correct as at 12:15pm Monday, September 23.
Best top 5 bet: The $1.55 still available for Marcus Bontempelli to finish in the top five is quite generous. We have the Bulldogs skipper finishing fifth on 28 votes, but crucially 4.5 votes clear of sixth-placed Caleb Serong. We know he polls well, almost always more than expected, and it will likely come down to the last two or three rounds where he could poll anything from two to eight votes.
Best top 10 bet: If you fancy taking a player in this market and are looking for better than double-your-money odds, have a look at Chad Warner ($2.40). The predictor has the gun Swan tied 11th on 19.5 votes, but given his eye catching style of play, and the fact the Swans won more games than anyone else, he could easily over poll and finish in the top 10. Warner had 10 games this home and away season where he racked up 20 disposals and kicked two goals. He should be getting votes in all of them.
Most 3-vote games: I'd be steering clear of the favourites in this market and focusing on Lachie Neale ($5). The predictor has Neale as the best chance for maximum votes in nine games this year, more than Nick Daicos, Patrick Cripps, and Isaac Heeney, all tied on seven. I think there's real value here with Neale on the third line of betting.
Most votes last eight rounds: Neale ($1.50) is the favourite in this market and, in all honesty, probably gets it done. We have him polling 14.5 from Round 17 onwards, including four best on grounds. But if its value you're looking for, Tom Green is your man. We may only have him polling 9.5 votes in that stretch, but he's a chance to poll in all eight games. A three-voter when he's expected to take one could end up being the difference.
Player to poll in most games: This is where I'd be looking at the favourite. I have Patrick Cripps ($2.25) a chance to poll in what would be a record 17 games this season. The predictor also has the Carlton captain as one of the top two players on the ground 13 times. The next best is Daicos ($4) who is expected to poll in 15 games.
Leader after Round 6, 10, 15: Heeney is the short-priced favourite in the first two markets, but if you believe he will lead at Round 6 and 10, you're better off taking the $2 on offer for him to be in front after Round 15. We have Heeney on 22.5 votes after Round 15, ahead of both Cripps and Daicos (tied on 20).
Best value bet: I love everything revolving around Port Adelaide young gun Jason Horne-Francis. The $1.50 on offer for him to finish top 20 has dried up, but $4.50 for top 10 is still worth a look, as is the $4.50 available for him to top Port's count. I have Horne-Francis on 19.5 votes this season, tied with teammate Zak Butters, who is the team's short-priced favourite to poll the most votes. Horne-Francis polled 16 votes last year and has had a significantly better season in 2024. Keep an eye on him.
Best double-your-money multi: Cripps, Daicos, Neale, Heeney, and Serong (all top 10), Warner, Butters (both top 20), Bontempelli most Bulldogs votes, and Jai Newcombe most Hawks votes will pay $2.
Best long shot: You've always got to be wary of favourite markets but I do like the Cripps, Daicos, Neale, Bontempelli first four (in order), which is paying a juicy $26. Keep in mind this market excludes ineligible players, meaning Heeney's finishing position doesn't count towards this bet. I wouldn't load up on it, but I reckon it plays out more often than 1 in 26 times. If you're unsure about the winner, you could also take the Daicos, Cripps, Neale, Bontempelli first four at $29 and hope one of the two salutes.