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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday

          White Sox rookie Drew Thorpe faces a slumping Mariners offense. Michael Reaves/Getty Images
          • Tristan H. Cockcroft
          Jul 26, 2024, 04:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Met his match?

          A week of pitching comebacks, following in the footsteps of Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Robbie Ray, continues on Friday, as the New York Mets welcome Kodai Senga back from the injured list.

          A pitcher the Mets anticipated would serve as their ace this season, Senga instead reported arm fatigue days after his arrival at spring training and was ultimately diagnosed with a moderate posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder. The team took a cautious approach to his rehabilitation, affording him extra time to refine his mechanics, but inflammation in his triceps in mid-May further delayed his return. Senga resumed throwing in early June, progressing to a minor league rehab stint, during which he registered a 4.15 ERA and 22.8% strikeout rate across four starts (one for Class A Brooklyn and three for Triple-A Syracuse).

          Despite a rocky outing in his most recent turn -- five runs on eight hits in three innings last Saturday -- Senga draws the Friday assignment at home against the bruised and battered Atlanta Braves. That'd normally be a must-avoid matchup, but bear in mind that the Braves, now without Opening Day starters Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, have averaged just 3.78 runs per game in July, eighth-fewest in the majors. The projections, too, say that the Braves represent merely a league-average matchup for opposing starting pitchers.

          It's that so-so Saturday outing that casts Senga more of a bench-and-evaluate than start-him status for this matchup. While in his four rehab appearances his raw stuff has looked similarly effective to his 2023 returns -- 94.6 mph average fastball velocity and a 52.4% whiff rate on his "ghost fork" -- neither was the case in that particular outing. Senga's fastball averaged 93.8 mph and had an average spin rate 74 rpm, beneath his rates during his entire rehab stint, while his forkball generated a 30.0% whiff rate. His 79 pitches thrown at least give the promise of an 85-pitch (or greater) outing, but it's tough to trust him when his stuff was noticeably less effective last time out.

          Should Senga step up with an excellent 2024 debut, he'd be an immediate top-20 capable fantasy starter for the season's final two months. His combination of good velocity and an elite strikeout pitch earned him the No. 19 fantasy point total among starting pitchers, and No. 49 overall, last year.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          By Todd Zola

          • Milwaukee Brewers OF Christian Yelich has opted to put off potential back surgery until the offseason and instead will hope rest and rehab allows him to return to the lineup before the end of the season. Yelich remains without a timetable to come back.

          • The Oakland Athletics will be without their closer for at least 15 days after placing Mason Miller on the IL with a broken left pinkie. Miller reportedly hurt his hand while putting it on a training table. The club was reportedly listening to trade offers for their rookie of the year candidate. It's unclear how his injury will affect discussions. Closing duties are expected to be handled by RP Lucas Erceg.

          • The Seattle Mariners fortified their offense yesterday by acquiring OF Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays. The club needed help regardless, but they are playing shorthanded with OF Julio Rodriguez and SS J.P. Crawford both on the injured list. Arozarena ended April with a .461 OPS but has since posted an .835 mark with 12 steals. He'll take over as the everyday left fielder. • The Rays will fill Arozarena's roster spot with 1B Yandy Diaz. Diaz has been on the restricted list while dealing with a personal matter. Diaz is expected to return to first base for tonight's road date with the Cincinnati Reds. Both OF Richie Palacios and OF Jonny DeLuca should see more action with Arozarena no longer in the picture.

          • The Arizona Diamondbacks fortified the back end of their bullpen last night by trading for Miami Marlins RP A.J. Puk. Regular closer Paul Sewald has converted 15 of 18 chances, but he's not as dominant as past seasons with a career low 23.7% strikeout rate. For the season, Puk's strikeout rate is down, but since June 5 he's fanned 36.6% of batters faced while walking a pristine 3.7%. How manager Torey Lovullo opts to deploy Sewald and Puk remains to be seen.

          • The San Francisco Giants returned 1B Wilmer Flores to the 10-day IL with lingering knee tendinitis. Flores has been serving as the right-handed part of a first base platoon with LaMonte Wade collecting the left-handed portion. David Villar is likely to step in for Flores with a lefty on the hill.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • Chicago White Sox rookie Drew Thorpe is riding a streak of five consecutive quality starts, during which time he has limited opposing hitters to a .127 batting average and 27% Statcast hard-hit rate, the league's best and third-best rates in those categories. He draws another favorable matchup Friday against a struggling Seattle Mariners team that has averaged 3.22 runs per game, second-worst in the majors, while striking out a league-worst 28.6% of the time in the month of July. Thorpe's raw stuff isn't elite from a swing-and-miss perspective, doing more to minimize hard contact while trusting his defense, and he'll face a challenge in the win department as a result of going head-to-head with the Mariners' George Kirby. Nevertheless, this should be one of the day's better pitchers' duels.

          • The Detroit Tigers' rotation is in shambles due to injuries to Casey Mize and Reese Olson as well as Kenta Maeda's ineffectiveness, which should tilt things significantly in favor of the Minnesota Twins offense. Keider Montero, who has surrendered five runs in each of his past two outings and has a 5.60 ERA in five starts since his installation into the rotation, is the Tigers' scheduled starter. Even with all the injuries to Twins hitters -- Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda are on the injured list and Byron Buxton left Wednesday's game with a forearm contusion -- consider adding top-four lineup candidates Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Santana and Max Kepler for this favorable matchup.

          • Don't sleep on Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Luis L. Ortiz, who in his past eight appearances (four starts, three "bulk pitcher" and one short-relief) has a 2.25 ERA and 3.2% walk rate. Thanks in large part to the addition of a cutter, which he developed while working in long relief earlier this season, Ortiz has shown a substantial improvement in terms of control, putting him on the fantasy landscape. Though his Friday matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have scored eight or more runs in six of their past 12 games against a right-handed starter and will be starting Zac Gallen on the opposite side, is a bit of a challenging one -- the projections grade it below-average for an opposing starter -- Ortiz's recent improvements make him one of the day's better streaming candidates.

          • Los Angeles Angels hitters serve as one of the day's sneakier stacks against hittable Oakland Athletics right-hander Mitch Spence. After a solid start to the year, Spence has a 5.54 ERA in his past nine outings, including surrendering a combined nine runs on 19 hits in 16 innings against the Angels in three starts since June 25. Logan O'Hoppe, Zach Neto and Taylor Ward are the three most fantasy-relevant options from the Angels' side, but if Nolan Schanuel, a .326 hitter in his past 25 games, draws a start in the leadoff spot, he'd also warrant a pickup.

          • Betting tip of the day: Though the Braves have lost five in a row, they shape up better than the oddsmakers believe in their matchup against the Mets and Senga. Senga shouldn't be expected to pitch deep in the game, and the Mets' bullpen has been heavily worked this week, totaling 13 1/3 innings in the past three days combined. Take Braves +115 on the Moneyline.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday

          • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Lively

          • Kansas City Royals vs. Hendricks

          • Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ortiz