<
        >

          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          Charlie Blackmon of the Colorado Rockies can help your lineup thanks to the doubleheader. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Sep 26, 2023, 03:27 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

          By Derek Carty

          • Joey Lucchesi (2%) is easily an above-average pitcher, but a lack of consistent starts has made him a fantasy afterthought this season. But with the Mets rotation issues, he's been starting every fifth day down the stretch and gets a favorable matchup on Tuesday against the Marlins. Tanner Houck (3%) is another good option against a Rays offense that has seen their best hitters drop like flies of late. This is not the potent first-place offense from the start of the year, and Houck should be able to take advantage in the only sub-60 degree game of the day.

          • With a double-header in Coors, you needn't look far for the best hitter options to stream today. Anybody with a chance of starting two games in the best hitting environment in baseball becomes an auto-add, even at the expense of better players. There are only a few games left, after all, and this opportunity doesn't come around often. If streaming from the Rockies, you can count on another game in Coors everyday for the rest of the season. Charlie Blackmon (19%), Brendan Rodgers (11%), Nolan Jones (36%), Kris Bryant (55%), Miguel Rojas (1%), James Outman (25%), Elias Diaz (32%), Ryan McMahon (24%), Jason Heyward (1%), Hunter Goodman (1%), Ezequiel Tovar (12%), David Peralta (1%), and Brenton Doyle (sub-1%) are all terrific plays.

          • If you're looking specifically for speed, good news! The Rockies qualify here too. While the overall quality of their offense is low, they have several players capable of swiping bags and most have a chance of playing both games. In order of stolen base desirability, take a look at Doyle, Tovar, Jones, Sean Bouchard (sub-1%), Trejo (sub-1%), and McMahon.

          • If saves are tight and you could use every ninth inning appearance you can get, well, also look at Coors Field. It puts your ERA and WHIP in a bit of danger, but you'll have two shots for your guy to get a save if you take one of the two closers. And because it's the Rockies, Tyler Kinley (1%) is available almost everywhere. Dodgers closer Evan Phillips (35%) has a shot of being out there as well. And if worse comes to worse, you can always take a shot on Brusdar Graterol (7%). If Phillips saves the first game, it would likely be Graterol coming on for a save opp in the second. (Or, if you can wait until after the first game plays out to make your pickup, you can see who pitched in the first and who will be available in the second).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • With Monday's light schedule yielding no one to discuss on the Relief Pitcher Usage Chart, let's focus on bullpens with the best odds of racking up saves and holds over the next three days, with the spotlight on those with ESPN rostership levels below 50%.

          • Tuesday's twin bill in Coors Field is a great place to start, though fantasy managers in category leagues may not want to risk harming ratios. Despite their record, the Los Angeles Dodgers use a closer committee with Evan Phillips collecting more saves than Brusdar Graterol, though Graterol has recorded more holds. Both are in play today as the Dodgers aren't likely to ask the same reliever to secure both ends of the doubleheader. Ninth inning duties have shuffled around the Rockies bullpen all season, with Tyler Kinley emerging as Colorado's closer down the stretch.

          • Don't look now, but the Detroit Tigers have a legitimate shot at second place in the AL Central, albeit with a losing record. Aiding their chances is a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals. Like the Dodgers, the Tigers also split closing duties with Alex Lange the chief option, ceding some opportunities to Jason Foley.

          • The Philadelphia Phillies are in the driver's seat for the National League's top wild card, but they've yet to clinch. They'll probably lock it down during their impending three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Add the Phillies to the group of clubs sharing save chances. With three saves over the past 15 days, Jose Alvarado has usurped Craig Kimbrel as the chief option, though Kimbrel has also notched a save in that span.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Josiah Gray O/U 4.5 strikeouts (-105/-120)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Gray putting up 3.8 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 33.3% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $26.83.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects the 4th-best pitching conditions of all games on the slate.

          • Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Josiah Gray has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 9% more often this season (66.1%) than he did last season (57.1%).

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • THE BAT X projects Josiah Gray to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (13th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

          • The No. 10 park in the game for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

          • The Baltimore Orioles have seven bats in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josiah Gray in today's game.

          • Josiah Gray's fastball velocity over his past three starts (91.9 mph) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (92.9 mph).