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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Don't worry. Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn't likely to have an ERA as high as 45.00 all season long. Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyMar 30, 2024, 03:20 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Dodging some bad memories

          Saturday marks the first slate with all 30 teams on the schedule. There are nine afternoon affairs, with six contests under the lights. Action begins at 1:40 p.m. ET with the New York Mets hosting the Milwaukee Brewers with Luis Severino opposing DL Hall. The final game on the docket is the third of a four-game set with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Boston Red Sox at 9:40 p.m. ET featuring Logan Gilbert dueling Kutter Crawford. The marquee matchup is in the City of Brotherly Love with the Philadelphia Phillies sending Aaron Nola to the hill to face Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves.

          Yoshinobu Yamamoto has had to wait an extra day to try to make people forget about his disappointing debut in the Korea Series as Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pushed his second start to Saturday, explaining he wanted to give Yamamoto an extra day to ease the transition to the MLB schedule.

          Doing so manifests an intriguing scenario. Yamamoto's third start will be on five days of rest, which is the desired length. However, his fourth could be on either four or six days. How Roberts manages Yamamoto's fourth start could be a harbinger of his plan for the season. As for Saturday, there is no reason to shy away from deploying the righty, even after he yielded five earned runs in one inning to the Padres in Seoul.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          • Individual player stats from the exhibition season have minimal predictive power. However, team stolen base numbers from the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues are often harbingers of the regular season. The Cincinnati Reds swiped the third most bases in the spring and they began the season with three pilfer in their opener. The Boston Red Sox collected the ninth most steals in exhibition season and they already have four on their first two games. Some teams to watch early are the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals as they all ran a lot in the spring.

          • Keeping with the steals theme, Jose Siri swiped a pair last night in the Tampa Bay Rays 8-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. He also logged a steal in the opener. The Rays like to play matchups, lessening the fantasy production of most of their players. However, with the early season injuries to Josh Lowe and Jonny DeLuca, Siri is going to be in the lineup nearly every day.

          • Sean Murphy and Travis d'Arnaud were slated to split catching duties for the Atlanta Braves, but for at least the next 10 days, d'Arnaud will be the primary backstop. Murphy was placed on the IL after straining his left oblique swinging. Chadwick Tromp has been recalled to serve as the backup.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Weather is always one of the early season stories. Most are aware of the scheduling repercussions that we've already encountered with a pair of Thursday openers getting pushed to Friday. Most fantasy managers in daily leagues know to look ahead and plan for possible postponements. Another sage strategy is to identify games with cooler temperatures. Anecdotally, some players don't perform well when they're bundled up. Scientifically, the ball doesn't travel as far when the mercury is not rising.

          • The forecast calls for rain with temperatures in the 40s in the Windy City where Michael Soroka and the Chicago White Sox entertain Kenta Maeda and the Detroit Tigers. Given the threat of a postponement, this is a great spot for Maeda (50% rostered in ESPN leagues) to begin his tenure with the Tigers. Pitchers usually return to previous form the second year after Tommy John surgery and Maeda was very good last season. His 4.23 ERA was pegged as a little bit high by the estimators, and his 20.8 K-BB% was the second best of his career. Assuming they play, the conditions will be cold and clammy, setting up Maeda for a solid outing.

          • While it won't be unreasonably cold in Flushing, game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low-to-mid 50s, which favors pitchers. Citi Field is the best pitching venue in the league. Luis Severino (15.9%) is widely available and threw around 85 pitches in a minor league game last week. He fanned 12 with just one walk over 14 Grapefruit League innings. The Milwaukee Brewers' lineup isn't daunting, rendering Severino as one of the slate's top streamers.

          • Many hoped it would be Paul Skenes and not Jared Jones making his Pittsburgh Pirates debut Saturday. However, with a date in South Beach against the Miami Marlins, Jones is in a great spot. The 22-year-old right-hander throws four pitches, with a 96 mph four-seamer leading the way. Jones' slider is his next best pitch with a curve and changeup a bit behind in their development. Jones threw eight walks in just 16⅓ spring innings, which is concerning, but his minor league track record suggests control won't be a major issue. The Marlins' offense should be better than last season, but it's still a middle-of-the-pack unit.

          • Betting Tip of the Day: The starters did their job in yesterday's opener between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies with Spencer Strider allowing two runs in five innings and Zack Wheeler hurling six shutout frames. Five of the 12 total runs scored in the Braves 9-3 win were courtesy of Phillies reliever Jose Alvarado. Look for a solid effort from today's starters Max Fried and Aaron Nola, and a better bullpen effort. Take the under on 8.5 runs scored.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Finish your draft before the first pitch of Sunday night's game and all stats will retroactively count for Week 1. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today