<
        >

          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

          Taj Bradley is a risky play against the potent Orioles lineup. Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyJun 8, 2024, 04:00 PM
            Close
            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
            Follow on X

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Across the Pond

          Saturday marks the opener of the 2024 London Series, featuring the NL East rivals Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets. Saturday's contest begins the slate at 1:10 p.m. ET, with the Mets serving as the home team.

          Renovations to London Stadium before last season's two-game set between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals rendered the park much less hitter-friendly than it was in 2019 when the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox scored 50 combined runs. The new dimensions have the yard playing somewhere between the Phillies' Citizens Bank Park and Great American Ballpark, the home venue for the Cincinnati Reds.

          My colleagues Tristan H. Cockcroft and Eric Karabell did a great job setting up the series in their always outstanding weekend preview. I'm in lockstep with their recommendation to start Philles SP Ranger Suarez (97.1% rostered in ESPN league) despite the hitter-friendly environment. Last year, Cubs SP Justin Steele tossed six innings of one-run ball, scattering five hits with eight strikeouts and a walk. Suarez is comparable to Steele, while the Mets lineup slated to face Suarez is worse than the Cardinals unit which faced Steele. Suarez was questionable to make the trip, but the swelling on his thumb has subsided after he was hit in the hand by a comebacker in his last start.

          The Mets will give the nod to SP Sean Manaea (16.6% rostered). The combination of a potent Phillies offense and an excellent hitting environment leaves Manaea on the fantasy bench. The Phillies and Mets will have the stage to themselves. The rest of the typical 15-game Saturday slate commences with 10 games beginning between 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET. The remaining four contests are under the lights.

          Betting Tip of the Day: When San Diego Padres SP Matt Waldron faced the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert on May 5, he only fanned two in three frames as the Diamondbacks sent Waldron to an early shower. In his subsequent five outings, Waldron has recorded a 1.84 ERA and .92 WHIP, with 35 punchouts to only six walks in 29 1/3 innings. Look for Waldron to gain some retribution at home in Petco Park for today's rematch with the Diamondbacks and take the over on 4.5 strikeouts (+105). The odds to climb the ladder and also take the over on 5.5 strikeouts (+210) are enticing.

          What you may have missed on Friday

          By Todd Zola

          • Houston Astros OF Kyle Tucker reported that his bruised shin is feeling better, but it isn't healing as quickly as hoped, so yesterday he was placed on the 10-day with the visit backdated to last Tuesday. Tucker is currently the No. 8 player according to the ESPN Player Rater. The club recalled 1B/OF Joey Loperfido to fill the open roster spot.

          • Boston Red Sox OF Tyler O'Neill reaggravated the knee injury that required a recent 10-day IL visit. In his third game back, O'Neill tweaked it in the outfield and was removed from last night's game during the third inning. After the game, O'Neill expressed frustration but was hopeful he could avoid another IL stint. Manager Alex Cora seemed more concerned, suggesting with O'Neill's checkered injury history, it would behoove the club to make sure O'Neill is 100% before returning.

          • After San Diego Padres 3B Manny Machado was able to pinch hit on Thursday night, there was optimism for a return to the starting lineup last night, but it was decided that he needed at least another day for his hip flexor strain to heal. Machado incurred the injury on Wednesday night.

          • The Miami Marlins were forced to their bullpen early last night with SP Ryan Weathers forced to leave the game after 2 1/3 innings with a sore left index finger. It isn't clear if this injury is related to the hand cramping Weathers experienced in April. Five Marlins relievers combined for 6 2/3 scoreless frames in the Marlins 3-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians. Notable among them was a clean inning from RP AJ Puk, whose presence has stabilized the Marlins bullpen. Puk hasn't allowed an earned run in his past six appearances.

          • Texas Rangers SS Corey Seager missed last night's game, but the club remains optimistic that Seager can avoid another IL visit. Seager hurt his hamstring on Wednesday night, but the Thursday off day wasn't sufficient to allow Seager to return. He's questionable for today.

          • Chicago Cubs OF Seiya Suzuki was only able to play six innings last night. He was struck by a throw while stealing second base in the first inning but stayed in the game. Suzuki was diagnosed with oblique tightness, with more details on the severity likely revealed today.

          • Colorado Rockies 2B Brendan Rodgers hurt his hamstring while hustling out a fielder's choice in the fourth inning last night. He was replaced by INF Alan Trejo. Earlier in the day, the club placed 1B Kris Bryant on the 10-day IL and recalled OF Michael Toglia.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Tampa Bay Rays SP Taj Bradley (11.4% rostered) is the docket's fourth highest ranked pitcher, and the top option available in more than half of ESPN leagues. However, Bradley has a date with the potent Baltimore Orioles, albeit at home. The Orioles are a prime example of why gauging quality of opponent is a slippery slope. For the season, the club ranks ninth overall in wOBA facing righties. Through May 31, they were 13th, with a league average mark. Suggesting starting Bradley on June 1 was a viable call. In the past week, the Orioles wOBA facing right-handers is a whopping .371, including a game where they lit up Bradley, so recommending him for Saturday is a big risk. Statistically speaking, one week's time is wrought with variance, but the Orioles are clearly a dangerous unit. Head-to-head team managers have the luxury of their team's stead and remaining starts for the week inform their decision. Everyone else should err on the side of caution and bench Bradley. Don't worry, sitting the 23-year-old right-hander will be the exception, not the norm.

          • Fortunately, there are a handful of arms worthy of streaming consideration, beginning with St. Louis Cardinals SP Kyle Gibson for his home date with the Colorado Rockies. Gibson isn't dominant with a 20.5% strikeout rate, and his 9.6% walk rate is a bit high. However, he's facing a Rockies lineup with the 10th lowest wOBA and fourth highest strikeout rate on the road versus right-handed pitching.

          • Next up is Boston Red Sox SP Brayan Bello (28.5% rostered). Manager Alex Cora is old-school in that instead of being wary of "third time through", Cora historically lets young, promising pitchers learn to pitch deeper into games. He started it with Eduardo Rodriguez a few years ago, with Bello the latest example. At least on paper, Bello should be able to last awhile on Saturday when he squares off with a Chicago White Sox lineup checking in with the league's poorest wOBA against right-handers.

          • Last time out, Cincinnati Reds SP Andrew Abbott (19.6% rostered) escaped Coors Field with a quality start. Next up is a home affair with the Chicago Cubs. It won't be easy facing a league-average Cubs lineup, but peaking ahead at Sunday's matchups, Abbott merits consideration for those needing to make up ground in head-to-head formats.

          • While it's true that Cleveland Indians SP Ben Lively (19.3% rostered) is out over his skis a bit with a 2.84 ERA, the associated 4.09 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA portend a better than league average hurler, which works with the right matchup. A road date with the Miami Marlins qualifies as favorable. The Marlins don't fan excessively, but they sport the league's lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill.

          • Let's wrap things up with San Diego Padres knuckleballer Matt Waldron (16.3% rostered). Waldron will face the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second time this season. The Diamondbacks are one of the few clubs that have been able to solve Waldron's 80-mph spinless floater this season. As we've observed with knuckleballers over the years, success facing them can be fleeting. Since early May when Arizona scored eight runs (seven earned) in three innings against Waldron, he's recorded a 1.84 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts, with 35 punchouts to just six free passes over those 29 1/3 innings.

          It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Saturday