During the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL draft, ESPN fantasy football writers Liz Loza, Matt Bowen and Mike Clay will provide analysis and projections for every skill-position player taken. Whether you play in redraft, keeper or dynasty leagues, this information will give you a leg up on the competition as you prepare for the 2023 season.
Should you expect running back Bijan Robinson to be an immediate difference-maker? How about fellow back Jahmyr Gibbs? Will early-round wide receivers Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison become fantasy starters as rookies? And what does the future hold for the top four quarterbacks selected in this year's class, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis? Get our take on their short- and long-term fantasy values, including a first look at their 2023 projections.
Round 1
No. 1: Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 320 of 517, 3,553 yards, 19 TDs, 13 INTs;
46 carries, 162 yards, 2 TDs (15 starts)
Young is considered the most complete signal-caller in this year's draft, a poised passer who thrives under pressure. He has an exceptional feel for the game, demonstrating elite pocket mobility and the arm strength necessary to reach all levels of the field. Young is the most talented QB Frank Reich has coached since Andrew Luck. Expect the Panthers to run a lot of quick passes, which will set Young to throw in rhythm. Given Carolina's shallow WR corps, it'll be tough for Young to crack the top 20 fantasy QBs in his rookie effort. However, his talent commands top-15 consideration in dynasty formats. -- Loza
No. 2: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 315 of 515, 3,380 yards, 17 TDs, 14 INTs;
39 carries, 117 yards, 1 TD (15 starts)
Stroud is the most accurate thrower in the draft class, with the arm talent to target all three levels of the field. In a Houston offense that will utilize defined throws and play-action elements, Stroud fits here as a pocket passer who can deliver a runner's ball to schemed voids -- with enough mobility to create outside of structure. In redraft formats, Stroud should be targeted as a QB2 in his rookie season, with the potential to start in your lineups based on weekly matchups. His real value, however, points to dynasty formats given his pro frame and throwing traits. -- Bowen
No. 4: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 258 of 425, 2,769 yards, 15 TDs, 12 INTs;
102 carries, 566 yards, 5 TDs (14 starts)
Focus on the physical tools with Richardson, because the scheme fit works with new Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Just like we saw with Steichen's offense in Philly last season, where Jalen Hurts produced as a dual-threat option, Richardson's traits will be maximized in Indianapolis. Schemed shot plays, designed rushes, RPOs. With the big-time arm talent to attack vertically, plus the ball carrier vision, speed and physicality as a runner, Richardson is my No. 1 target in dynasty formats. And I am also putting him on my board for redraft leagues given the rushing totals he can produce and the playmaking element he will bring to the NFL game as a rookie. -- Bowen
No. 8: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 276 carries, 1,252 yards, 9 TDs;
42 receptions, 310 yards, 2 TDs (14 games)
Considered a generational talent, Robinson has got the goods to thrive as an every-down back at the next level. Giving off Baby Saquon Barkley vibes, Robinson's speed, vision and tackle-busting prowess figure to make him an immediate impact player. Add in his ability as a receiver and he's a top-six fantasy RB option in Arthur Smith's run-focused offense. -- Loza
No. 12: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 157 carries, 696 yards, 6 TDs;
63 targets, 47 receptions, 378 yards, 2 TDs (14 games)
With the Lions now having traded D'Andre Swift to Philadelphia, Gibbs will pair with David Montgomery in the Detroit backfield. The Alabama product has an electric skill set, one that translates to the NFL. Perimeter juice in the run game with big-play chops. He can scoot in the open field. And the receiving traits are real. Gibbs can win on backfield releases or when flexed outside the formation. I see Gibbs as a potential RB2/flex in PPR re-draft leagues, given his pass-catching ability. -- Bowen
No. 20: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 88 targets, 56 receptions, 727 yards, 5 TDs (15 games)
Smith-Njigba, the best route-runner in the draft class, has the lateral speed and foot quickness to uncover from slot alignments. And that will allow the Ohio State product to make himself available to Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, in addition to the position versatility he brings as an outside target. Playing with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle will limit the overall volume for Smith-Njigba from a fantasy perspective in his rookie season, but he has dynasty league upside in Seattle. -- Bowen
No. 21: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 86 targets, 51 receptions, 712 yards, 5 TDs (15 games)
Johnston has a rare physical profile that is brimming with upside. With a burst score in the 98th percentile (135.9) and a catch radius in the 89th percentile (10.25), his upside as an alpha receiver is evident. But it's going to take work to get him there. His route tree is limited, and he has struggled to consistently win in contested situations. The Chargers appear to be looking to the future with this pick, as both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have potential outs in their contracts after 2023. Johnston could flash in his first season but is unlikely to consistently post fantasy-relevant numbers. -- Loza
No. 22: Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 71 targets, 44 receptions, 567 yards, 5 TDs (15 games)
One of the most explosive receivers in this draft class, Flowers can stretch defenses vertically and create after the catch. He's a rapid accelerator with the ball in his hands. And there's a serious playmaking element to his game -- from multiple alignments. Get him loose in space, and he can roll. With Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., the Ravens have made immediate upgrades to the pass game for quarterback Lamar Jackson. Yes, Flowers should be a priority dynasty target because of his game-breaking traits, but don't be surprised if he produces some WR3 weeks as this season progresses because of how the Ravens can scheme for his versatility at the position. -- Bowen
No. 23: Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 90 targets, 56 receptions, 754 yards, 5 TDs (15 games)
Addison has that polish. He's one of the best route-runners in this year's class and crushed as a deep threat throughout his college career. With Adam Thielen in Carolina, the former Biletnikoff Award winner figures to work as the Vikings' No. 2 WR opposite Justin Jefferson. Addison could flirt with 100 looks in his first pro effort, making him a viable WR2 target in redraft formats. -- Loza
No. 25: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 47 targets, 32 receptions, 337 yards, 3 TDs (15 games)
We have to look at Kincaid as a pass-catcher with power slot ability. This is where the tight end can stretch the seams, run crossers and produce after the catch. In Buffalo, we could see more two-TE personnel, with Kincaid working opposite of Dawson Knox to flex into the slot or align as the backside X receiver to create those isolation matchups. As we all know, rookie fantasy tight end production is suspect, and Kincaid projects as a much stronger dynasty league target given his traits in the pass game with Bills quarterback Josh Allen. -- Bowen
Round 2
No. 33: Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 56 of 91, 631 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs;
12 carries, 62 yards (3 starts)
Veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill is slated to start the '23 season for the Titans, but he's also heading into the final year of his contract. That makes Levis a prime dynasty target given his traits at the position, plus the offensive setup in Tennessee. Levis has outstanding arm talent and he's a good mover who has the toughness to be schemed situationally as a runner. And Levis will be working in a Titans system with heavy play-action elements that will open up the middle of the field and the third level in the route tree. -- Bowen
No. 34: Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 51 targets, 35 receptions, 382 yards, 3 TDs (15 games)
LaPorta is a rugged mover after the catch. He can rumble. Plus, we can see the route traits and formation flex on the tape, which allows him to isolate as an outside target in a pro offense. I do believe LaPorta fills a pass-catching need for the Lions at the position. He's an upgrade, and that will allow the rookie to be utilized this season as a streaming option at tight end. -- Bowen
No. 35: Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 41 targets, 28 receptions, 307 yards, 2 TDs (15 games)
Considered by many scouts to be the most complete TE in this year's draft class, Mayer is a pro-ready player with high-end ball skills. Hyper-productive at Notre Dame, Mayer is an excellent route-runner who shines in contested situations. He is physical, focused and an optimal fit for Josh McDaniels' offense. Darren Waller's exit created a need, so Mayer figures to see immediate snaps, but he will require time before producing consistent fantasy numbers. Still, you'll want to keep him on your streaming radar. -- Loza
No. 39: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 84 targets, 52 receptions, 658 yards, 3 TDs (15 games)
Mingo is a versatile receiver who lined up all over the field at Ole Miss. Utilizing strong hands and solid leaping ability, he shines in contested situations. Mingo's brand of toughness brings a much-needed physicality to the Panthers' receiving corps. He has a real shot of working his way up the depth chart and finishing the season as the team's No. 2 WR. Consider him a top-35 option at the position for fantasy purposes. -- Loza
No. 42: Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 38 targets, 26 receptions, 271 yards, 2 TDs (15 games)
In Matt LaFleur's offense, Musgrave can develop into that chain-mover for new starting quarterback Jordan Love. Big frame here. Create leverage to the ball. Middle-of-the-field targets. And Musgrave has the ability to stretch defenses at the third level, too -- especially in the Packers' play-action route tree. Hit the open voids. With plenty of opportunity for Musgrave to see early reps in Green Bay, fantasy managers should keep an eye on his volume/production as a potential matchup play this season. -- Bowen
No. 50: Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 77 targets, 47 receptions, 580 yards, 3 TDs (15 games)
Reed may not have the most exciting athletic profile, but his instincts are on point. A crisp route-runner with excellent body control and strong hands, he can adjust mid-air and reel in off-target throws. Reed is another young weapon for Jordan Love, but he probably won't see enough volume in his first season to crack the top-45 fantasy WRs. However, his versatility makes him a potential year-two breakout candidate. -- Loza
No. 52: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 113 carries, 476 yards, 3 TDs;
27 targets, 21 receptions, 156 yards, 1 TD (14 games)
I'm all in on Charbonnet's college tape. The contact balance, plus the north/south juice. He can break tackles or shake defenders in tight quarters. I do see potential three-down ability here, too. Those pass-catching traits will transition into a pro scheme. But I'm not in on the fantasy fit for Charbonnet in Seattle as the No. 2 behind Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet is a late-round selection for me in redraft leagues, as insurance for the Seahawks' No. 1 back. -- Bowen
No. 55: Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 55 targets, 36 receptions, 457 yards, 4 TDs (15 games)
Rice thrived as a deep threat who feasted on vertical routes at SMU. He's an explosive player (95th percentile burst score) in possession of excellent balance and body control, as evidenced by the 21 contested catches (seventh among FBS WRs) he recorded in 2022. While he's unlikely to draw regular looks in year one, he will have boom weeks as a part of the Chiefs' explosive offense. -- Loza
No. 58: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 28 targets, 20 receptions, 205 yards, 2 TDs (15 games)
Schoonmaker has the traits to be deployed in a traditional tight end route tree for Mike McCarthy's offense in Dallas. He's creative off the release from on-the-line alignments, with enough short-area speed to separate from linebackers or safeties on second-level throws. With Dalton Schultz leaving via free agency, the door is open here for Schoonmaker to earn reps early as a rookie. He's a player to keep on the fantasy radar as a potential streamer as the season progresses given how he can be deployed as a target between the numbers. -- Bowen
No. 61: Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 23 targets, 15 receptions, 160 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
With Evan Engram entrenched as the Jags' starting tight end, Strange should be a dynasty target at this point, but don't sleep on his future in Jacksonville. Given his ability to play as a "move" tight end in Doug Pederson's offense, with catch-and-run traits, Strange has the skill set to be deployed like Engram in the route tree. Multiple alignments, work all three levels. And with Engram playing on the franchise tag this season, Strange could potentially elevate to the Jags' No. 1 TE in '24. -- Bowen
No. 63: Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 32 targets, 21 receptions, 251 yards, 2 TDs (15 games)
The hallmark of Mims' game is his speed (4.38). He averaged 20.1 yards per catch in 2022, illustrating his downfield prowess. Given the Broncos' loaded receiving corps (assuming there isn't a trade), his opportunities figure to be slim. Mims is a field-stretcher who could have some boom moments but doesn't carry any fantasy value. -- Loza
Round 3
No. 68: Hendon Hooker, QB, Detroit Lions
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 19 of 31, 214 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT;
4 carries, 25 yards, 0 TD (1 start)
You can write in Hooker on your dynasty board as a potential future starter in Detroit. With a natural over-the-top release and efficient mechanics, Hooker projects as a pocket thrower with the dual-threat ability to produce rushing totals in the league. And as he transitions from Tennessee's Air Raid system, Hooker will get the time to develop with Jared Goff as the No. 1 currently in Detroit. -- Bowen
No. 69: Nathaniel "Tank" Dell, WR, Houston Texans
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 28 targets, 17 receptions, 201 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
Dell's nickname is misleading. His frame isn't big (5-foot-8, 165 pounds), but his talent is substantial. With a highlight reel full of over-the-shoulder catches made at top speed, Dell thrives down field. As a Cougar, he utilized incredible burst and precise routes to overwhelm defenders. It's unlikely, however, that his playmaking ability will be unlocked early as a member of the Texans. -- Loza
No. 71: Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 36 carries, 152 yards, 1 TD;
13 targets, 10 receptions, 76 yards, 0 TD (14 games)
Miller's college tape is nice, now. He's a sturdy runner with the patience to set up blockers and find daylight. Big-play chops, too. But the landing spot here? I just don't see the value for Miller in redraft leagues with Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams already in the building. He's a dynasty target for me. -- Bowen
No. 73: Jalin Hyatt, WR, New York Giants
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 28 targets, 17 receptions, 197 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
Hyatt does bring a vertical stretch element to the Giants. He can absolutely roll, and the game speed is faster than the stopwatch here. Boundary or slot alignments. He will get up on the toes of defensive backs. The fantasy impact in New York, however, is pretty limited for Hyatt in redraft leagues given the wide receiver depth in New York and his anticipated role in the route tree. -- Bowen
No. 74: Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 20 targets, 13 receptions, 158 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
Tillman is one of the few members of #TeamTallReceiver in this year's draft. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Tillman thrived as a red zone target at Tennessee. Demonstrating impressive burst for a man his size, the 23-year-old brings on-brand strength and physicality to the Browns. At this stage of his career, however, he's not versatile enough to earn a full-time role in the offense. -- Loza
No. 78: Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 27 targets, 18 receptions, 191 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
Another tight end for the Packers, after Green Bay selected Luke Musgrave in the second round. Look, I think Kraft can be a good pro in the route tree, especially after the catch. He's physical in the open field and he can work his way into the lineup for the Packers in multiple-TE sets. Play-action, seams, crossers here. But this is really about target volume for a No. 2/3 tight end, and that keeps Kraft off the fantasy radar as a rookie. -- Bowen
No. 79: Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 50 targets, 30 receptions, 369 yards, 2 TDs (15 games)
Downs was master of the contested catch at North Carolina, recording a 56% contested catch rate (10th among WRs) in 2022. He's an explosive slot receiver who runs crisp routes and is tough to contain after the catch. He'll certainly have an opportunity to contribute in his first season, but his overall volume doesn't figure to translate into immediate fantasy relevance. -- Loza
No. 81: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 68 carries, 286 yards, 2 TDs;
20 targets, 16 receptions, 117 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
We know this is Derrick Henry's run game in Tennessee ... for now. But let's keep Spears on the dynasty radar, because he has a pro skill set at the position. I watched Spears up close at the Senior Bowl workouts. He had a big-time week in Mobile. And it matches the tape, too. Second-level elusiveness, explosive-play ability, and the receiving traits. Spears projects as an eventual starter in the league -- with PPR upside. -- Bowen
No. 84: De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 52 carries, 213 yards, 2 TDs;
14 targets, 11 receptions, 78 yards, 0 TD (14 games)
A track standout as well as star running back at Texas A&M, Achane is an absolute blazer (4.32). He also has awesome vision and undeniable elusiveness, making him a nightmare to contain in space. He'll start behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., but given the vets' respective ages and injury histories, Achane could emerge as a fantasy star down the stretch. -- Loza
No. 88: Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 62 carries, 259 yards, 2 TDs;
8 targets, 6 receptions, 47 yards, 0 TD (14 games)
Bigsby is a really good scheme fit for the Jags given the zone run schemes under Doug Pederson. He can press the line of scrimmage and bend the ball to daylight. See it and go. Bigsby will contribute as a pass-catcher, too. Now, with Travis Etienne Jr. holding that No. 1 spot in Jacksonville, we know the redraft value here is limited for the rookie out of Auburn, but he can be targeted as an insurance play behind Etienne. -- Bowen
No. 93: Darnell Washington, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 16 targets, 11 receptions, 115 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
Washington has receiving upside given his 6-foot-7, 264-pound frame. From a fantasy perspective, however, this isn't an ideal landing spot for Washington. Even if we see him deployed in 12 personnel sets, Pat Freiermuth is the top tight end target in the Steelers' route tree for quarterback Kenny Pickett. -- Bowen
No. 94: Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Mike Clay's 2023 projection: 16 targets,10 receptions, 116 yards, 1 TD (15 games)
Wilson is a wonderfully well-rounded receiver. He's an ace ball tracker and proficient route-runner who can line up both inside and out. Unfortunately, two season-ending injuries significantly impacted his draft process. Those injury woes, combined with the Cardinals' loaded WR corps will prevent Wilson from making any kind of fantasy impact. -- Loza
No. 100: Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Tucker projects as a motion/movement player in the pros, with the top-end speed to test defenses vertically. Think about the fly sweeps, screens or even backfield alignments here, in addition to the schemed shot plays down the field. Looking at the deep group of pass-catchers in Vegas, however, and his anticipated role as a rookie for Josh McDaniels, Tucker won't jump onto the fantasy radar this season. -- Bowen
No. 101: Cameron Latu, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Latu is a good route-runner and gives solid effort after the catch. Ultimately, however, he projects to be a backup TE at the next level. Plus, he's buried on the depth chart in San Francisco. -- Loza