The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Opportunity alert
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his "expected" fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 15 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn't be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Team-by-team rundowns
Kenyan Drake ran for 137 yards and four touchdowns on 22 carries against Cleveland on Sunday. Drake was limited to one catch, but the important number is 75%, which is his snap share for the game. David Johnson was limited to 22% of the snaps (three carries, zero targets), and Chase Edmonds played zero snaps. Only four running backs have scored more fantasy points than Drake since he joined the Cardinals in Week 9. This is old news at this point, but Drake's huge performance should be a reminder that he is a solid RB2 option and should thus be locked into weekly lineups.
Calvin Ridley was placed on injured reserve after Week 14, which opened the door for Julio Jones to have one of the best fantasy days of his career. Jones matched a career-high with 20 targets, which allowed him a 13-134-2 receiving line. No other Falcons player managed more than six targets or 27 receiving yards in the upset over San Francisco. Behind Jones, it was Christian Blake playing 85% of the snaps (one target), Russell Gage at 79% (six), Olamide Zaccheaus at 8% (zero) and Justin Hardy 7% (zero). Jones is the only Falcons wide receiver who belongs in lineups against the Jaguars in Week 16.
Seth Roberts posted a 3-66-1 receiving line against the Jets on Thursday. The yardage total was easily his highest of 2019, and the touchdown was only his second of the season. Roberts has yet to clear five targets in a single game this season and has failed to catch more than one pass in seven games. Even in the Ravens' elite offense, Roberts, who has played 51% of the snaps, isn't close to fantasy relevance.
Devin Singletary matched a career high with 21 carries and added four targets along the way during Sunday night's win in Pittsburgh. Singletary continues to dominate the backfield touches, having out-snapped Frank Gore in eight consecutive games. Singletary leads his counterpart in snaps (370 to 142), carries (119 to 74), routes (168 to 36) and targets (35 to 4) during the span. The rookie is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and sits 14th at running back in fantasy points since Week 8. A tough matchup with New England looms, but Singletary can nonetheless be considered a fringe RB2.
After stepping in for Greg Olsen and posting a 5-57-1 receiving line on 10 targets in Week 14, Ian Thomas face-planted against the Seahawks on Sunday. Thomas was held to two catches for 23 yards on four targets. Seattle entered the game allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, so the dud was a bit of a surprise. As noted last week, Thomas filled in for Olsen well last season, posting the sixth-most fantasy points among tight ends during Weeks 13-17. He'll remain on the streaming radar this week if Olsen remains out, but Sunday's rough showing makes him riskier.
Anthony Miller's breakout 2019 season continued Sunday as the second-year receiver posted a 9-118-1 receiving line on 15 targets. Miller has now seen at least eight targets in four of his past five games, including 11 or more in three of those games. Miller was a relative nonfactor during Weeks 1-10, sitting 91st among wide receivers in fantasy points, but the 2018 second-round pick sits eighth since Week 11. Taylor Gabriel's eventual return could cost Miller a target or two, but the former second-round pick is performing well enough that he's on the WR3/flex radar this week against a Chiefs defense that -- believe it or not -- has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points and fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
John Ross has appeared in two games since returning from injured reserve two weeks ago. The third-year receiver posted receiving lines of 2-28-0 and 2-24-0 in the two games, totaling three targets during both outings. Ross exploded out of the gate this season with 270 yards and three scores on 20 targets during Weeks 1-2, but he hasn't scored or cleared 36 yards in four games since. Ross has played only 44% of the snaps since his return and may not see much of a boost with A.J. Green a candidate to return in Week 16. Even if Green remains out, Ross would still be a very risky dart throw against Miami's struggling pass defense.
Odell Beckham Jr. posted an 8-66-0 receiving line on 13 targets against Arizona on Sunday. The 14.6 fantasy points were Beckham's fourth most in a single game this season. Incredibly, Beckham's production has correlated extremely well (r-squared of 0.48) with how good the opposing defense has been against wide receivers this season. His best five performances have come in the only five games Cleveland has played against defenses in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points to the position. Beckham is averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game in those five affairs, but 8.5 per game in his other nine games. The bad news is that Cleveland plays Baltimore (17th-most fantasy points to wide receivers) and Cincinnati (27th) during the final two weeks of the season. Beckham will be a shaky WR3 both weeks.
The Cowboys put up 44 points against the Rams on Sunday, so it's a bit shocking that top-three wide receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb combined for three catches, 22 yards and zero touchdowns on seven targets. Granted, Dallas was able to run the ball 45 times, compared to 23 pass attempts, but it was nonetheless a brutal fantasy performance for the wideouts. Cooper entered the week with back-to-back 80-yard games, Gallup had reached 55 yards in five straight outings and Cobb had managed 43 yards in five consecutive games. Both Cooper and Gallup will be strong candidates for bounce-back games this week against an Eagles defense allowing the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers, though Cobb should remain on benches (or waivers), as Philadelphia has allowed the fewest fantasy points to the slot.
Noah Fant caught two of three targets for 56 yards against Kansas City on Sunday. Fant has now reached 56 yards in four of his past six games and scored a pair of touchdowns during the span. Of course, Fant also failed to reach 15 yards during two of those games and hasn't cleared five targets in a game since Week 11. The 22-year-old rookie's playing time has dwindled in recent weeks, with him falling just short of 50% of the snaps each of the past two weeks. Fant has settled in as a TE2 and isn't seeing enough work to warrant top-12 consideration.
For the third time this season, the Lions promoted a running back directly from the practice squad to a prominent offensive role. This week, it was Wes Hills who followed in the footsteps of Bo Scarbrough and Tra Carson before him. Hills played 37% of the snaps, which trailed Ty Johnson's 44% among the team's backs, but was ahead of J.D. McKissic (19%). Hills handled 10 of the 13 carries by the team's running backs and scored both of Detroit's touchdowns. Of course, he scraped together only 22 yards on 12 touches. Kerryon Johnson is expected back from injury this week and Scarbrough may be as well, so Hills should not be prioritized on waivers. Johnson, meanwhile, will be a very risky flex in his return, though he's worth an add if you play into Week 17.
Jimmy Graham was held to one reception for 0 yards on four targets against the Bears on Sunday. Graham now has fewer than five catches in 13 of 14 games this season and hasn't scored a touchdown in seven consecutive games. Graham also has 20 or fewer receiving yards in eight games, including three of his past four. He hasn't played more than 52% of Green Bay's offensive snaps since Week 10. Needless to say, the 33-year-old is way off the fantasy radar and his days as an NFL starter could be numbered.
Kenny Stills was on the receiving end of both of Deshaun Watson's touchdown passes Sunday. Despite the strong production, Stills remains off the fantasy radar. Houston's No. 3 receiver was limited to 62% of the snaps and was targeted only three times in the game. Despite Will Fuller V missing extensive action, Stills has failed to clear 9.2 fantasy points in six of his past eight games. In fact, Stills has fallen short of 9 receiving yards in two of his past four outings. Stills' two-score game was his first since Week 1 of the 2018 season and brings him to four scores in 2019. He can be left on waivers.
T.Y. Hilton returned from injury on Monday Night Football, but underwhelmed with four catches for 25 yards. Despite the weak showing, there's plenty of reason for optimism. Hilton was limited to 50% of the snaps, but still saw a team-high nine targets. Hilton has played more than half of the Colts' snaps in only six games this season, but sits 13th at wide receiver in fantasy points in those weeks. He'll be a candidate for an expanded role in Week 16 against a Panthers' defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past six weeks. Fire him up as a WR2.
DJ Chark Jr. was sidelined Sunday, which opened the door for Dede Westbrook (92% snap share), Chris Conley (89%), Keelan Cole (74%) and C.J. Board (19%) to carry the load at wide receiver. Westbrook (2-14-0 receiving line) disappointed, but Cole (3-76-0) and Conley (4-49-2) were both very productive. Jacksonville has failed to record more than one passing touchdown during six of its past nine games, so this group will be hard to get excited about against an improved Atlanta defense this week even if Chark remains out. In that scenario, Westbrook would remain the best play, but he is no better than a flex.
Spencer Ware paced the Kansas City backfield in snaps Sunday and has now done so during both of his games with the team this season. Ware played 40% of the snaps, compared to 37% for Darwin Thompson and 23% for LeSean McCoy. Thompson (nine touches, 39 yards) was the most productive back of the three, but none of Thompson, Ware (nine touches, 35 yards) and McCoy (six touches, 16 yards) were close to fantasy relevant. No Kansas City back is safe to start this week against a Chicago defense allowing 3.7 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per target to the position this season. That's especially the case with Damien Williams potentially back in the mix.
Mike Williams was targeted nine times and produced a 4-71-1 receiving line against the Vikings on Sunday. After failing to find the end zone during Weeks 1-13, Williams has now scored in back-to-back games. Still one of the league's unluckiest players in the touchdown department, Williams sports a 6.1 OTD (32nd in the league) and has seen nine end zone targets (12th). Williams has produced at least 55 yards in seven consecutive games and has at least one catch of 20 yards in 12 straight outings. Williams is a flex option against Oakland this week.
Tyler Higbee caught 12 of 14 targets for 111 yards in Dallas on Sunday. In what has to be one of the most surprising developments of the season, Higbee has gone from totaling 85 receiving yards as a rookie, 306 yards in 2017, 347 yards in 2018, 212 yards during Weeks 1-12 this season to putting up 334 yards during his past three games. Higbee has reached 100 yards in three straight games, managing a 26-334-1 line on 33 targets during the span. He's the highest-scoring fantasy tight end by eight points since Week 13. Granted, Gerald Everett has been out with an injury, but even when he's back, it's hard to imagine Higbee being phased out of the offense after his recent burst in production. For now we can consider Higbee a back end TE1 play against the 49ers in Week 16.
DeVante Parker signed a four-year contract extension last week and the 2015 first-round pick didn't let that distract him from his breakout 2019 season. Parker posted a 4-72-2 receiving line on seven targets against the Giants. Ignoring a Week 13 game in which he went down with an injury after 17 snaps, Parker has reached 12 fantasy points in 10 consecutive games. He's also been targeted at least 10 times in five games and has scored a total of eight touchdowns during the span. Parker is fantasy's No. 7 wide receiver since Week 4 and has worked his way into the weekly WR1 discussion.
Dalvin Cook went down with a shoulder injury after playing 42% of Minnesota's snaps on Sunday. With Alexander Mattison also out, Mike Boone (32% snap share) and Ameer Abdullah (24%) took on a larger workload. Boone ran for 56 yards and a pair of touchdown on 13 carries, whereas Abdullah racked up 25 yards on five carries. Neither back had a catch. Cook seems likely to miss time, so Mattison and Boone will both need to be prioritized on waivers. If Mattison returns, he'll be in the RB1 discussion against a Packers defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to backs. If Mattison ends up out, Boone will be more of an RB2 play.
Julian Edelman disappointed with two catches for 9 yards on five targets against the Bengals on Sunday. Edelman entered the game questionable with an injury and was rested in the fourth quarter of the blowout win, playing only three snaps. Edelman entered the game with at least 10 targets in each of his previous eight games and was averaging 10.6 per outing. Edelman's status will need to be monitored through the week, but fantasy's No. 4 wideout will be nearly impossible to bench if active against Buffalo.
Tre'Quan Smith scored a touchdown on Monday Night Football and has now found the end zone in three of his past four games. Despite the surge, Smith is not worth your attention on waivers. The second-year receiver hasn't cleared four targets, three catches or 49 yards in a single game this season. Smith has played 72% of the snaps since returning from injury in Week 10, but the volume isn't there to allow anything close to flex production.
It took a while, but Sterling Shepard finally turned his heavy usage into a big fantasy day. Shepard caught 9 of 11 targets for 111 yards against Miami on Sunday. It's Shepard's first game with over 20 points since Week 3 after he posted point totals of 8.7, 13.0 and 7.6 since his return from a concussion in Week 12. Shepard has handled at least seven targets in all eight of his games this season and has reached five catches in six of those games. New York's undisputed No. 1 wide receiver has flown under the radar a bit, but he's certainly on the top-30 radar against the Redskins in Week 16.
Jamison Crowder posted a 6-90-2 receiving line on 11 targets against the Ravens in Week 15. It was a big bounce-back game from a player who had failed to eclipse three receptions or 29 yards during his previous three games. Crowder has been dangerously inconsistent this season, failing to reach 30 receiving yards in seven games but also reaching 75 yards in six outings. Thursday's performance marks Crowder's only career game with more than one touchdown and brings him to five for the season. Crowder's 24% target share keeps him in the flex discussion against a Steelers defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the slot over the past two months.
Josh Jacobs returned from injury and was on the field for 58% of the Raiders' offensive snaps on Sunday. That playing time was plenty, as Jacobs racked up 24 carries and three targets on his 42 snaps. Jacobs totaled 109 scrimmage yards in the loss and has now reached triple digits in eight of his past 10 games. Jacobs continues to play a limited role as a receiver (he's gone over three targets in one game), but his 18.6 carries per game and seven rushing scores have allowed him eight top-25 fantasy weeks. Jacobs is fine RB2 play against the Chargers in Week 16.
With Alshon Jeffery on injured reserve and Nelson Agholor out, the Eagles' wide receiver snap shares were as follows against Washington on Sunday: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 92%, Greg Ward 77%, Robert Davis 21%. With only three receivers active, Philadelphia went heavy on multiple tight end sets, and running backs Miles Sanders and Boston Scott also saw the field together. Ward was the only Eagles receiver with a catch (after a slow start, he ended up with a 7-61-1 receiving line) and is the only one of the three in the vicinity of fantasy relevance. Ward should be considered for only your flex spot against Dallas this week if Agholor remains out.
James Conner returned from injury on Sunday and played 33 of a possible 57 offensive snaps against Buffalo. Conner handled eight carries and was targeted on five of his 20 pass routes. Jaylen Samuels was next up with two carries and one target on 17 snaps. Kerrith Whyte, Benny Snell Jr. and Trey Edmunds combined for four carries and zero targets on eight snaps. The Steelers' offense has struggled to find the end zone (eight touchdowns during its past seven games) and the Jets have been good against running backs this season, so Conner is best valued as a fringe RB2 in Week 16.
Deebo Samuel stumbled to one catch for 29 yards on three targets against Atlanta on Sunday. Samuel entered the day having produced at least 109 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in five-consecutive games and was a top-30 fantasy receiver during each of those outings. After Sunday's dud, however, the rookie receiver has now failed to clear four targets and three touches in three of his past four games. The good news is Samuel has been on the field for 84% of the pass plays for the league's No. 2 offense in touchdowns. That's enough to keep the rookie in the WR3 discussion against the Rams in Week 16.
With Rashaad Penny done for the season, Chris Carson predictably stepped into an even larger role. Seattle's lead back played 75% of the snaps and posted a 24-133-2 rushing line against the Panthers' league-worst run defense. C.J. Prosise was limited to 16% of the snaps and racked up 25 yards on six touches. Travis Homer handled a 10% snap share and carried the ball twice for 7 yards. Carson is locked in as a top-end RB1 at home against Arizona in Week 16, whereas Prosise and Homer can be left on waivers.
Breshad Perriman had what was by far the best game of his NFL career on Sunday, posting a 5-113-3 receiving line on six targets in Detroit. Perriman was forced into a larger role by Mike Evans' season-ending injury, as well as an in-game injury to Chris Godwin, and he certainly delivered the goods. Perriman has now reached 70 yards in three consecutive games and is up to five touchdowns on the season. The former Raven and Brown played 90% of the snaps and is locked in as one of Jameis Winston's primary targets in Tampa Bay's high-scoring offense. Perriman should be in lineups against Houston this Saturday with Godwin unlikely to play.
Last week, I raised some concerns about A.J. Brown's volatile usage, but Ryan Tannehill put that to bed a bit on Sunday by targeting the rookie receiver 13 times. That marks a career high for Brown and is his most since he saw eight targets in Week 7. Brown put up an 8-114-1 receiving line in the game and has now reached 100 receiving yards in three of his past four games. Brown is up to seven touchdowns on the season and four of them have come during his past four games. Fantasy's No. 1 wide receiver since Week 12 could draw Marshon Lattimore shadow coverage this week, but his strong play and the boost in targets are enough to make him a lock for fantasy lineups.
Dwayne Haskins had the best fantasy performance of his career against the Eagles on Sunday. The rookie completed 19 of 28 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns while also adding 26 yards on four carries. Haskins' play has been better in recent weeks, but he's not yet close to fantasy relevance. Haskins has managed only one weekly finish better than 13th and two better than 26th. He should be on rosters in only dynasty leagues and those that start two quarterbacks.