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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jun 21, 2023, 03:33 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Wednesday's MLB games

          By Todd Zola

          • Wednesday's action gets underway early with two 12:10 p.m. ET affairs, both hosted in the Sunshine State. All told, there are eight matinees, with the remaining seven tilts under the lights. There is something for everyone on the hill, from Shohei Ohtani to several rookies, one making his MLB debut.

          • Let's begin there with the Cleveland Guardians promoting Gavin Williams (2.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) for his inaugural start at home against the Oakland Athletics. Williams began the season with Double-A Akron but was quickly accelerated to Triple-A Columbus where the 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, fanning 52 in 41 innings. With Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill both out and without a clear timetable to return, this is likely more than a spot start for Williams. The fact he'll be throwing to Bo Naylor, his catcher with the Clippers, should ease the transition. It also helps that Williams draws an Athletics lineup with the league's lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate versus right-handers.

          • Another rookie tops the list of streaming candidates with southpaw Andrew Abbott (32.4% rostered) taking the ball for the Cincinnati Reds to wrap up an early-week home set with the Colorado Rockies. Abbott is one of the reasons the Reds have surged to the top of the NL Central, as he has yet to allow a run in his first three starts. That said, 12 strikeouts to nine walks in 17⅔ frames indicate a correction is impending. However, the Rockies are one of the league's worst road teams facing lefties, having the second-lowest wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate under those conditions. Regression doesn't punch a time clock and it's agnostic toward the opponent, so this call is mostly about Abbott enjoying a favorable matchup and his suddenly productive offense in a good spot.

          • While hitting streaks have been shown to be non-predictive, there is credible research demonstrating pitchers on a roll have a better than 50% chance of continuing to throw well. There is obviously still some risk, but based on that, Garrett Whitlock (13.9%) deserves consideration for Wednesday night's road date with the Minnesota Twins. The Boston Red Sox have turned to James Paxton and four youngsters in their rotation, with Whitlock coming through with wins in his last two outings, over which he fanned 13 while issuing only two free passes in 13 1/3 innings. Adding to Whitlock's appeal is that the Twins' 27.1% strikeout mark is the highest in the league with a right-hander on the hill.

          • Perhaps the most difficult decision on the slate is Michael Kopech (48.9%) and the Chicago White Sox hosting the Texas Rangers and the league's highest-scoring offense. Kopech's team managers are deciding whether to use him, while those in just over half of ESPN leagues are contemplating whether to pick him up. The allure is a 1.77 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 48 punchouts over his last 35 2/3 innings, spanning six starts. The cause for concern is that he walked six Seattle Mariners in 4 1/3 innings in his last outing. Perhaps this combination renders Kopech a better DFS or strikeout prop play than traditional fantasy starter, but considering how dominating Kopech was prior to his last effort, using him in defensible in all formats.

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Draft now and start fresh with a 0-0 record beginning the next scoring period. Come and join the fun of ESPN's brand new standard scoring format!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Bullpen usage watch for Wednesday

          By Todd Zola

          • As suggested yesterday, Cincinnati Reds manager David Bell would not hesitate to use closer Alexis Diaz in back-to-back fashion, though Bell no doubt hoped Diaz would need a lot fewer than 30 pitches to collect his 20th save. That's what it took, giving Diaz 51 pitches over the last two days and 67 over the last four, signaling a day off -- even though the Reds already won't play on Thursday. Lucas Sims did not pitch last night, and he has posted 9 1/3 scoreless innings this month, compiling 11 strikeouts and six holds in the process. Buck Farmer also did not pitch yesterday and has three holds in June, so he's a candidate for late-inning work.

          • Felix Bautista also registered his 20th save last night as the Baltimore Orioles hung on to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 8-6. Bautista recorded four outs with 19 pitches, giving him 29 pitches over the last three days. Given the importance of today's game and the fact the Orioles are off on Thursday, Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde will probably call Bautista's number again today, especially since there is precedent for doing so in similar scenarios. The only caution is today's finale starts at 12:10 PM ET, so it is a fast turnaround from last night's AL East affair.

          • Ryan Pressly captured his 13th save last night -- his first in 10 days. Pressly went through a bit of a run in early June, allowing at least one run in five straight appearances before logging his second straight scoreless outing last night. However, with 34 pitches over the last three days, Pressly's availability for today's matinee with the Mets is questionable, even though he has worked in back-to-back fashion with a similar previous workload and Houston has tomorrow off. However, since starter Framber Valdez pitched eight innings last night, the rest of the Astros bullpen is well rested. If they aren't asked to fill in for Pressly, at a minimum Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris are in the mix for a hold.

          • It wasn't clean, but Raisel Iglesias escaped with his 10th save last night as he's now surrendered at least one run in three of his last four appearances. He entered last night's game with the Atlanta Braves holding a 4-1 lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies scored once, driving Iglesias' pitch count to 22, leaving him with 33 over the last three days. While there is precedent for Iglesias working two days in a row, the club has a deep bullpen and the NL East rivals meet again on Thursday, so there is no natural day off to rest. A.J. Minter and Nick Anderson pitched last night, but they were both working on two days of rest and threw fewer pitches than Iglesias. At the very least, picking up Minter or Anderson gives a head start for filling a likely hole in Thursday's roster.

          • The loss may have gone to Nick Martinez, but Josh Hader did "his part" in the San Francisco Giants' literal walk-off win by first issuing a free pass to load the bases, then throwing ball four to Joc Pederson. Hader was brought in with two on and the score tied in the bottom of the ninth. Hader has tossed 28 pitches over the last three days, and 47 over the last four. With the San Diego Padres wrapping up their set with the Giants tomorrow, Hader will likely sit this one out. The caveat is that Steven Wilson, Tim Hill and Martinez all pitched last night, and Luis Garcia has been shaky in his three outings since returning from the IL. WIlson is the choice if speculating on a Padres save today.

          • Devin Williams walked one and fanned one while gathering his 13th save last night. He needed 14 pitches, after throwing 11 on Sunday. The Milwaukee Brewers have Thursday off, so manager Craig Counsell will probably go back to his workhorse closer again today if needed in the finale with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Wednesday

          Prop of the Day

          Luis Castillo, Mariners, 7.5 strikeouts (+110/-140)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Castillo putting up 7.6 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.5% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.11.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • The Yankees have three bats in their projected offense today with a high underlying K% (over 27%), via THE BAT X (Stanton, Kyle Higashioka, Jake Bauers).

          • Phil Cuzzi, expected to be calling pitches today, profiles as an extreme pitcher's umpire.

          • Yankee Stadium grades out as the No. 8 stadium in the majors for strikeouts, via THE BAT X projection system.

          • The weather forecast calls for the third-best pitching weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • Castillo's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (95.5 mph) below where it was last year (96.5 mph).

          • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Castillo has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.4% less often this season (34.9%) than he did last year (43.3%).