Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Jun 27, 2023, 03:45 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

By Derek Carty

If you're streaming pitchers on Tuesday, Bryan Woo (6% rostership) is your clear best choice. The only two pitchers that THE BAT X projects better Tuesday are Shohei Ohtani and Kevin Gausman, so it's pretty good company to be in. Woo has followed up dominant minor league numbers with dominant major league numbers (12.7 K/9, 2.99 xFIP across four starts) despite a misleading 5.09 ERA. He faces one baseball's weakest offense in the Washington Nationals here and is a must-start in all formats.
If Woo is already owned or you want to double-dip, Martin Perez (26%) and David Peterson (2%) are both excellent options as well. Perez faces the Tigers, and Peterson gets the Brewers. While he doesn't project as well as Woo overall, he does project for more strikeouts (6.4) than anyone other than Ohtani and Gausman. Peterson was perhaps the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball during his first stint in the rotation this year, posting an 8.08 ERA despite a 3.42 xFIP. With a great home ballpark, he may even be worth keeping on your roster long-term if he can stick around in the Mets rotation.
Three aces find themselves in very difficult matchups on Tuesday and may be worth benching. Clayton Kershaw goes into Coors Field where he projects for a 4.77 ERA. He also projects for 5.5 strikeouts and a solid chance of a win, though, so he's borderline. Sandy Alcantara in Boston (5.12 projected ERA) and Joe Ryan in Atlanta with 86 degree heat and double-digit wind to center (5.60 ERA) are pretty clear sits, though.
The Dodgers are in Coors with 86-degree heat to face Connor Seabold, and THE BAT X projects them for nearly 8 runs (!) on average.
Their stars are obviously rostered, but literally anyone who makes the roster and is available is worth starting. Miguel Vargas (17%), Jason Heyward (0%), James Outman (24%), Miguel Rojas (1%), and Michael Busch (1%) are all possibilities. Also keep an eye on betting lines for Seabold; his unders will likely have huge value.
If you're looking for stolen bases, the matchup for the Angels is a great one against Michael Kopech (who also offers home run upside). Ohtani is obviously already going to be rostered, but his prop lines are often inefficient and may be particularly so in this one. Andrew Velazquez (0%), Taylor Ward (63%), David Fletcher (0%), and Mickey Moniak (2%) are all worth thinking about. If Velazquez cracks the lineup, he would have one of the best chances of anybody regardless of rostership.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
15.2	Shohei Ohtani	R	CWS	99.9%	-190	8	53%	6.1	2.0	7.2
13.9	Gavin Williams	R	@KC	13.0%	-145	9	71%	5.8	1.9	5.4
12.7	Andrew Abbott	L	@BAL	48.2%	118	8.5	57%	6.0	2.3	5.9
11.8	Yu Darvish	R	@PIT	94.5%	-190	9	61%	5.9	2.5	5.9
11.7	Framber Valdez	L	@STL	99.6%	-125	8	57%	6.1	2.4	6.0
11.5	Bryan Woo	R	WSH	12.6%	-235	8	59%	4.9	1.6	5.0
11.5	Joe Ryan	R	@ATL	97.4%	130	9	52%	5.6	2.5	6.0
11.3	Ranger Suarez	L	@CHC	36.5%	-130	8.5	58%	5.9	2.3	4.9
10.9	Zac Gallen	R	TB	99.7%	-130	8.5	47%	5.7	2.6	6.1
10.8	Taj Bradley	R	@ARI	30.8%	110	8.5	53%	5.2	2.1	5.5
10.5	Sandy Alcantara	R	@BOS	94.2%	110	9.5	57%	6.1	3.1	5.9
10.5	Bryce Elder	R	MIN	85.1%	-155	9	48%	5.8	2.5	5.5
10.2	Kevin Gausman	R	SF	99.8%	-170	8	47%	5.6	2.8	6.4
9.8	Michael Kopech	R	@LAA	39.6%	158	8	47%	5.2	2.3	5.4
9.7	Jake Irvin	R	@SEA	0.6%	192	8	41%	5.2	2.0	4.8
9.2	Jordan Montgomery	L	HOU	67.6%	105	8	43%	5.6	2.6	4.8
9.2	David Peterson	L	MIL	2.7%	-155	9	48%	5.1	2.3	5.6
9.1	Julio Teheran	R	@NYM	25.7%	130	9	52%	5.4	2.4	4.8
8.7	Alex Wood	L	@TOR	2.4%	143	8	53%	5.1	2.4	4.7
8.1	Paul Blackburn	R	NYY	2.8%	115	8	38%	5.2	2.5	4.5
8.1	Jameson Taillon	R	PHI	10.7%	110	8.5	42%	5.3	2.7	4.7
7.9	Jhony Brito	R	@OAK	4.6%	-135	8	62%	4.4	1.8	3.5
7.9	Tyler Wells	R	CIN	77.3%	-140	8.5	43%	4.9	2.6	4.6
6.9	Clayton Kershaw	L	@COL	98.8%	-305	12	58%	5.0	3.4	5.6
6.7	Rich Hill	L	SD	6.1%	158	9	39%	5.0	2.7	4.5
6.3	Garrett Whitlock	R	MIA	16.7%	-130	9.5	43%	4.8	3.0	4.7
5.9	Brady Singer	R	CLE	48.6%	122	9	29%	5.4	3.3	4.8
5.7	Martin Perez	L	DET	29.5%	-195	9.5	53%	5.6	3.7	4.5
3.6	Matt Manning	R	@TEX	0.9%	162	9.5	47%	4.7	3.5	4.0
1.7	Connor Seabold	R	LAD	0.4%	240	12	42%	4.4	4.0	3.6

Bullpen usage for Tuesday

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	6/26	P3	Rest	Strk
Devin Williams	MIL	92.4%	6	22	0	2
David Robertson	NYM	62.9%	14	27	0	1

By Todd Zola

Devin Williams logged his 14th save last night as the Milwaukee Brewers defeated the New York Mets 2-1 in the opener of a four-game set. It was the second straight day WIlliams appeared, which usually signals a day off. However, Williams threw just 16 pitches on Sunday, and only six last night, so it isn't clear cut to take him out of Tuesday's fantasy lineup. On the other hand, primary setup men Joel Payamps, Matt Bush and Peter Strzelecki didn't pitch yesterday, so Brewers manager Craig Counsell may only deploy Williams in an emergency.
Prior to Williams locking down the win for his club, the Mets asked David Roberston to keep the deficit to one run in the top of the ninth. He retired the side in order, using 14 pitches, which came on top of 13 thrown on Saturday. Roberston has pitched in back-to-back fashion a few times this season, so reserving him tonight is not a no-brainer. Another reason to leave Robertson active is the two candidates to fill in, Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley also pitched last night and Saturday, with each throwing more total pitches than Robertson.
After the Chicago White Sox activated Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman's rostership predictably declined to 11.4%. WIth the report Hendriks will be sidelined at least through the All-Star break with elbow inflammation, Graveman is back in the mix for regular saves.

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Miguel Vargas (LAD, 1B -- 16%) at Connor Seabold
David Peralta (LAD, LF -- 1%) at Connor Seabold
Jason Heyward (LAD, CF -- 0%) at Connor Seabold
Jesus Sanchez (MIA, CF -- 2%) at Garrett Whitlock
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF -- 3%) vs. Clayton Kershaw
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS -- 45%) at Brady Singer
Daniel Vogelbach (NYM, DH -- 1%) vs. Julio Teheran
James Outman (LAD, LF -- 24%) at Connor Seabold
Jurickson Profar (COL, LF -- 10%) vs. Clayton Kershaw
Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 3%) at Bryce Elder

Worst Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 85%) at Tyler Wells
Eloy Jimenez (CHW, LF -- 65%) at Shohei Ohtani
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, RF -- 78%) at Shohei Ohtani
Luis Robert Jr. (CHW, CF -- 93%) at Shohei Ohtani
Josh Lowe (TB, RF -- 63%) at Zac Gallen
Thairo Estrada (SF, 2B -- 69%) at Kevin Gausman
Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 55%) vs. Ranger Suarez
Spencer Steer (CIN, 3B -- 71%) at Tyler Wells
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B -- 68%) vs. Andrew Abbott
Willson Contreras (STL, C -- 74%) vs. Framber Valdez

The BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

Los Angeles Dodgers at Connor Seabold
Cleveland Guardians at Brady Singer
Atlanta Braves vs. Joe Ryan

Prop of the Day

Bryan Woo, Mariners, 4.5 strikeouts (-145/+110)

PREDICTION

THE BAT X sees putting up 5.8 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 65.4% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $15.13.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

THE BAT X projects Woo in the 88th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.
It is scheduled that we will see a Huge Pitchers Umpire (Brennan Miller) behind the plate.
T-Mobile Park profiles as the No. 4 ballpark in baseball for strikeouts, per THE BAT X projection system.
The weather forecast predicts the fifth-most favorable pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

Via THE BAT X, the offense with the third-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate Tuesday is the Nationals with a 20.5% underlying K%.
The Nationals have six batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Woo.