Bold predictions in a fantasy baseball setting are bold for a reason, because they are risky and beyond conventional wisdom. Predicting Aaron Judge to hit 30 home runs is far from bold. Predicting him not to, well, is bold. With 2024 spring training games underway, now seems like a fine time -- not at all bold, incidentally -- to go bold.
Some of our bold predictions from last season hit the goal or came close, which makes us smile. Cody Bellinger and Jose Berrios indeed bounced back nicely with the Cubs and Blue Jays, respectively. The Dodgers' James Outman and Tigers' Kerry Carpenter won starting roles and hit for power. Oakland's Esteury Ruiz stole 50-plus bases, and Pittsburgh's Ji Hwan Bae stole 24. Miami's Jesus Luzardo and Minnesota's Jhoan Duran were great.
Then again, other picks look foolish in retrospect. Vaughn Grissom and Michael Soroka did not thrive for Atlanta. They barely played at all. (But watch out in 2024!) Colorado's Kris Bryant flopped, yet again. Don't ask about the now-retired Nelson Cruz and Adam Wainwright, or afterthoughts Drew Rucinski and Oscar Gonzalez. Hey, we take chances, and sometimes we should not have.
Regardless, let us go bold yet again, this time for 2024, starting with the American League.
Again, to be clear: Most, if not all, of these predictions are not going to happen. Still, perhaps I'm on the right track with some of them -- and that might be just as important as we get ready for our fantasy baseball drafts.
Baltimore Orioles: SS/2B Jackson Holliday and 2B/3B Jordan Westburg each win starting jobs coming out of Spring Training. Holliday, 20, wins the second base job and hits .270 with 15 home runs and 15 steals over 130 games. Westburg, 25, is the better fantasy value, hitting .270 with 22 home runs. Don't forget about Westburg. ... Newcomer RHP Corbin Burnes becomes the eighth pitcher (and second in as many years) to win the Cy Young award in both leagues. Burnes and RHP Grayson Rodriguez combine for 400 strikeouts.
Boston Red Sox: OK, let's try this again with 2B Vaughn Grissom. He and SS Trevor Story each play 140 games and each reach 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Story is healthy, and he has done this before. And no, I guess I will never learn. ... Four Red Sox starting pitchers make 25-plus starts and whiff at least 150 hitters. RHP Kutter Crawford leads the quartet (Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck) in fantasy value.
Chicago White Sox: DH Eloy Jimenez (not OF-eligible, folks!) finally plays in 140 games for a season, and he smacks 38 homers between the White Sox and Dodgers. Yes, there is a late-July trade. ... RHP Erick Fedde, formerly of the Nationals and the Korean League (where he won MVP last season), wins 12 games with a 4.25 ERA. That is a top-75 starting pitcher! The White Sox do not trade RHP Dylan Cease.
Cleveland Guardians: Both of the Naylor brothers swat at least 20 home runs. You know about 1B Josh Naylor. C Bo Naylor, an afterthought in most ESPN leagues, breaks out in his first full season. He hits .242 and steals nine bases, too. ... RHP Tanner Bibee keeps improving, ending up as a top-20 fantasy starter with another sub-3.00 ERA, with 190 strikeouts. RHP Shane Bieber makes 14 starts for the Cubs after the midseason trade there.
Detroit Tigers: Three Tigers blast 30 home runs as this club wins the AL Central. Rookie 3B/2B Colt Keith joins 1B Spencer Torkelson and OF Kerry Carpenter. Leadoff hitter OF Parker Meadows scores 95 runs. Get these guys on your draft lists! ... Everyone loves LHP Tarik Skubal (perhaps too much?). How about RHP Kenta Maeda, 36, as a top-60 fantasy starter? Remove the 10-run outing from last season and he earned a 3.46 ERA. This year: a 3.45 ERA.
Houston Astros: Eight lineup members hit 20-plus homers, including C Yainer Diaz, who blasts 28 and ends up a top-three fantasy backstop. Four Astros go 20/20, including OF Chas McCormick and both middle infielders. ... RHP Hunter Brown finishes second on the staff in starts, strikeouts and fantasy value behind only LHP Framber Valdez. RHP Justin Verlander makes only 14 starts, although they are excellent ones.
Kansas City Royals: OF Nelson Velazquez finishes second on the squad to SS Bobby Witt Jr. with 31 homers and 90 RBI, while rookie 1B/2B Nick Loftin takes the 3B job and hits .290 with 12 homers and 16 steals. This is an underrated offense. ... LHP Cole Ragans whiffs 190 hitters. LHP Will Smith leads the staff with 19 saves. The surprising Royals win 79 games.
Los Angeles Angels: Only one Angel bats 550 times. Sorry, Mike Trout fans, but it is 1B Nolan Schanuel. The rookie eventually handles leadoff duties and scores 85 runs, with a .375 OBP. OF Taylor Ward and underrated 2B Brandon Drury lead the team with 31 home runs. ... RHP Chase Silseth breaks out with a 3.60 ERA and a team-leading 155 strikeouts. RHP Carlos Estevez keeps the closer role all season. At this point, with Robert Stephenson lurking, that seems bold.
Minnesota Twins: All aboard the 3B Royce Lewis train! He hits .280 with 35 homers and 110 RBI. However, no other Twins hitter reaches 20 home runs, including the great-but-brittle Byron Buxton. Projecting him for 400 plate appearances is another level higher than bold. ... Four Twins whiff 170 hitters, including RHPs Bailey Ober (rated quite nicely) and the underrated Louie Varland.
New York Yankees: SS Anthony Volpe, probably rushed to the majors a year ago, greatly improves. He doesn't go 30/30, but he does hit .255 with a 22% strikeout rate and 40 steals. OF Jasson Dominguez, on the mend from Tommy John surgery, ends up leading the team with 70 starts in center field. He hits 18 homers. ... The real LHP Carlos Rodon shows up, and he strikes out 200 hitters. Lowest ERA among the starters? It is newcomer Marcus Stroman at 3.22, edging out Gerrit Cole.
Oakland Athletics: Well, there isn't much here to be bold about. No Athletics are rostered in more than 25% of ESPN standard leagues. OF Esteury Ruiz deserves attention in roto formats, for he could steal 75 bases. But he rarely walks or hits baseballs hard (or far), and he is quite poor defensively. Take the under on 40 steals because the Athletics really should play someone else (Lawrence Butler? JJ Bleday?). ... Things are not better on the pitching side. RHP Mason Miller may close, but do not expect more than 15 saves. The team wins 39 games, one fewer than the 1962 Mets.
Seattle Mariners: C Mitch Garver is already acknowledged as a top-10 fantasy backstop. He has three seasons with a .870 OPS. Now he doesn't have to catch. He's the regular DH, so look for career bests in everything: 140 games, 550 PA, 32 HR, 85 RBI. He may end up as the best fantasy catcher. ... This may be the best rotation in baseball, with five guys posting a sub-3.50 ERA and at least 150 strikeouts. Get RHPs Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo late in drafts. The Mariners win the AL West.
Tampa Bay Rays: OF Josh Lowe learns how to hit lefties a little bit better and ends up with 32 homers and 34 steals. Rookie OF Jonny DeLuca takes the CF job from Jose Siri and provides 21 homers. New SS Jose Caballero steals 30 bases. ... RHP Taj Bradley becomes the staff ace -- and quickly. Bradley had a misleading 2023 season. This year, I see a 3.33 ERA and a team-leading 175 strikeouts.
Texas Rangers: Eight Rangers club at least 20 home runs, led by 3B Josh Jung, who hits 33. Rookie OFs Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford shine right away. They each go 20/20. Unfortunately, SS Corey Seager misses 80 games and the defending champion Rangers miss the playoffs. ... No Rangers whiff 150 hitters. Rehabbing RHP Tyler Mahle makes more starts than both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.
Toronto Blue Jays: 2B Davis Schneider wins the starting job and posts a .850 OPS with 24 homers. New DH Justin Turner ends up playing 65 games at 3B, making room for rookie DH Spencer Horwitz. Turner knocks in 102 runs. Horwitz hits .300 with modest power. ... Rookie LHP Ricky Tiedemann debuts in June and wins 10 games. RHP Alek Manoah wins only five games.