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          Fantasy baseball Friday advice: Start solid streamer Civale

          Aaron Civale is coming off back-to-back quality starts and gets the A's on Friday. Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 23, 2024, 03:57 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Pitching brewing in Milwaukee

          Unexpectedly, the Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff currently ranks in the top three in ERA. The starters are a respectable 11th-best, with the bullpen checking in at third overall. Even more amazing is that the club is doing this after dealing ace SP Corbin Burnes prior to the start of the season and hasn't had SP Brandon Woodruff all year long. Plus, closer Devin Williams missed the first four months of the campaign.

          The staff doesn't excel in any specific area. It ranks 14th in strikeout rate and ninth-lowest in walk rate. The Brewers have surrendered home runs at the third-highest clip but have also yielded the sixth-lowest BABIP, fueling the eighth-best WHIP. Brewers pitching has been a bit fortunate with a 76.2% LOB mark, but its 3.92 xFIP is 11th-best, indicating that this is still a borderline top-10 staff when the luck is stripped out.

          Freddy Peralta is the de facto ace, but his 3.86 ERA is hurting the team. Colin Rea and Tobias Myers have anchored the rotation, with trade fortification from Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale. Montas was acquired at the deadline and Civale joined the club in early July.

          Civale (12.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) gets the call for Friday's road date with the Oakland Athletics. Civale has posted a 4.10 ERA with the Brewers, with the club winning only three of his seven starts. However, he has recorded consecutive quality starts, picking up the win in both.

          Civale sets up well for a third straight solid effort. Since the break, the Athletics are averaging the sixth-fewest runs per game while fanning at the third-highest clip facing right-handers. Civale isn't dominant, with a below average 21.7% strikeout rate, but he should tick that up on Friday. Consider Civale to be one of the best streaming options on the slate.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          • Baltimore Orioles 1B Ryan Mountcastle left yesterday's game in the ninth inning due to a wrist issue. He initially hurt it in the second inning diving into second base, but the pain worsened as the game progressed. Mountcastle will presumably be examined today, after which his status for tonight will be clarified.

          • Detroit Tigers SS Javier Baez is being evaluated for an undisclosed injury. The club has summoned Ryan Kreidler from Triple-A Toledo, ostensibly to take over the roster spot if Baez requires another trip to the IL. With a .515 OPS this season, Baez has been a fantasy non-entity. However, if Baez is out, rookie SS Trey Sweeney will, at minimum, occupy the busier side of a shortstop platoon. Sweeney exhibited the type of power-speed combination in the minors that is craved by fantasy managers.

          • On Thursday, the New York Yankees optioned Oswald Peraza to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre, creating an opening for today's activation of Jazz Chisholm Jr.. Chisholm is slated to return to third base and he only needs seven more games at the hot corner to garner 3B eligibility for 2025.

          • Texas Rangers SP Max Scherzer was scheduled for a rehab start tonight, but he's been scratched for undisclosed reasons. More information should arise over the course of the day and weekend. On the other hand, SP Jacob deGrom tossed two innings last night in his rehab outing with Double-A Frisco. He threw 29 pitches, with several at 99 mph and a few even touching triple digits. The right-hander fanned three and didn't walk anyone in his first time taking the hill since undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. The first came in 2010, just after deGrom was drafted by the New York Mets.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • The Seattle Mariners sport the league's best pitching staff, but their offense is averaging the third-fewest runs per game while also striking out more than any other team. On Friday, San Francisco Giants SP Hayden Birdsong (5.2%) will take the hill at T-Mobile Park. After beginning his career with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over his inaugural 30⅓ innings, Birdsong has a 10.64 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP over his last three outings, covering 11 frames. He's in a good spot to get back on track on the road.

          • Detroit Tigers SP Keider Montero (1.5%) has quietly strung together three straight wins. His ERA is a tidy 2.81 over that span, though he has fanned just a pedestrian 15 batters over those 16 frames while also issuing a generous seven free passes. Montero is owed a visit from the regression monster, but that will likely be put off for at least this outing against the Chicago White Sox. Montero squares off with the offense scoring the fewest runs per game in MLB while carrying the ninth-highest strikeout rate.

          • The Arizona Diamondbacks have allowed the fifth-fewest stolen bases in the league. However, since regular C Gabriel Moreno was put on the IL Aug. 6, the club has given up a league-high 21 steals. The Diamondbacks open an interleague set in Fenway Park on Friday against a Boston Red Sox club with the sixth-most pilfers since the break. Look for the Red Sox to have the green light all weekend. Ceddanne Rafaela (22.8%) and David Hamilton (5.3%) are best equipped to take advantage of the Diamondbacks' battery.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Los Angeles Angels will give the ball to RHP Jack Kochanowicz for tonight's road date with the Toronto Blue Jays. In 20 2/3 innings this season, Kochanowicz has struck out only seven batters. Blue Jays RHB Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has fanned at a low 8.3% this month, and when he puts the ball in play, good things ensue. I'm taking Guerrero for over 2.5 total bases (+180).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday